Market update Jun 8

[scremonini]

I find the recent market update and plunder paper highly contradictory. The fact that both have very valid arguments makes it interesting..
The plunder is highly bearish on US dollar and overall bearish on long term trend.
Common ground seems to be on metals rising

Am I misreading it?

[SOL]

I find the recent market update and plunder paper highly contradictory. The fact that both have very valid arguments makes it interesting..
The plunder is highly bearish on US dollar and overall bearish on long term trend.
Common ground seems to be on metals rising

Am I misreading it?

One of the positive takeaways here is that we don’t surround ourselves with yes-men. That aside, the core difference comes down to timelines. John is looking through a long-term lens. Our view is more nuanced—we still believe the dollar has one more rally left in it before entering a sustained downtrend. But don’t expect a dramatic collapse into a sinkhole. More likely, it will grind lower over time, putting in a series of lower highs.

Here’s something else to chew on: even if the dollar goes nowhere—just trends sideways—it will still bleed purchasing power. Why? Because we’re in the early innings of a global resource mobilisation war. Input costs are rising across the board, and even a stronger dollar won’t be enough to offset the surge in commodity prices.

Bottom line: our outlook on the dollar is broadly aligned. The divergence lies in the timelines it takes to get there.