Questions on newsletter

[jonnyfrank]

First off, thanks for a great service. Your insight is very good.

I am trying to figure out the plays of MJ, PLAY, and TLT/TMF. It seems MJ and the idea of legal marijuana is out of favor these days. I held it through the Biden administration, thinking he would pass some radical laws, but now with Trump in office I just don't see it as a viable hold. With PLAY, it seems counterintuitive now that a recession is knocking on the door. Wouldn't recreation plays be dead in the water since they are luxury items? And regarding TLT/TMF, what are your real thoughts on bonds right now? I see them as a buy due to possibility of inflation coming down and perhaps a recession, but I am looking for more insight. These are the current plays of yours that I am struggling with, so any insight would be appreciated.

Cheers!

[SOL]

Marijuana plays were always speculative, and at these deeply oversold levels, selling now feels almost irrational. That said, it’s important to zoom out. During the stretch from our initial entry to now, we exited a lot of positions with solid profits. So technically, you could call this profit-hanging—but that’s not the point here nor the line I am going to use.

This setup looks ripe for a sharp dead cat bounce. As long as we’re only allocating a portion of our capital and not going all-in, the risk is manageable. In the sense its only a small portion of the funds.

As for TLT—it was coiled and ready to break out, then the tariff noise kicked in. Typical pattern: things were stabilising, inflation cooling, China ready to ship its inventory, and then Trump throws out some headline bait. He says one thing, does another. This tariff talk could unwind just as fast as it escalated.

So, we’re staying patient and watching how this tariff dance with the devil unfolds.

[scott]

I sold MJ and applied the funds elsewhere. Can't win them all. There's no rule you have to strictly follow TI recommendations. We're free to consider them guidelines; to each their own.

[jonnyfrank]

I always knew MJ was speculative. I was just curious if there was any hope for that industry for the next several years. TLT and bonds are sure taking a hard slap these days.

[SOL]

I always knew MJ was speculative. I was just curious if there was any hope for that industry for the next several years. TLT and bonds are sure taking a hard slap these days.

Let’s put it this way: from a strictly intellectual and logical standpoint, we’re all gambling when we play in the stock market. We know the deck is rigged. Sure, we can do things to reduce our losses and improve our odds. Add psychology to the mix, and we see that the entire market runs on hope and dreams. How often does the average investor actually take the time to make an informed decision? They hear AI is going to change everything, read a few stories about X, Y, and Z companies leading the charge, and jump on the hype train. They think they’re adding to their knowledge base by following experts, but those same experts are just rinsing and repeating the same tired ideas they hear elsewhere.

So, one could argue that for most people, investing is based on hope and expectations, not logic. If someone were to change the Marijuana narrative, things could take off. Will they? Who knows. But every stock has its dead cat bounce, unless it's running on pure fumes. Sectors crash and correct because someone decided to change the narrative.

The other option? We're looking for a speculative play with a solid risk-to-reward ratio that could fly. Easier said than done. There are plenty of potential candidates, but the risk is off the charts.

[deepthinker]

I sold MJ and applied the funds elsewhere. Can't win them all. There's no rule you have to strictly follow TI recommendations. We're free to consider them guidelines; to each their own.

Hear, hear, Scott. Fully agree, sometimes you have to pivot and move. Though, I tend to be 100% correct... about 50% of the time.

[Budge]

As for TLT—it was coiled and ready to break out, then the tariff noise kicked in. Typical pattern: things were stabilising, inflation cooling, China ready to ship its inventory, and then Trump throws out some headline bait. He says one thing, does another. This tariff talk could unwind just as fast as it escalated.

So, we’re staying patient and watching how this tariff dance with the devil unfolds.

From your latest update:

Quick note on bonds: rates were lowered, and there was no positive reaction. Tariff wars hit, and bonds
dropped. Markets crashed—bonds didn't react like they usually do. Tariffs are being eased, and TLT is
still stuck under the 93–94 zone.

Listening to a Tom Luongo podcast with Caitlin Long (https://tomluongo.me/2025/04/19/podcast ... that-wasnt) he pointed out that the hit to bonds over tariffs despite all the rumors was not engineered by Chinese selling, it was EU dumping along with London and Ottawa. TPTB are desperate to destroy DJT because he has reordered the financial world by decoupling the US from the old colonial system of LIBOR which was the "tail wagging the dog". The US is on SOFR (secured overnight financing rate) from March 31st.

Since 1984, LIBOR was set by 18 banks in City of London with just one US bank (JPM) involved and its rate touched everything. DJT, Powell and Bessant have now fucked over the European system. We've gone from infinite rehypothecating with no posting of collateral to a secured system with collateral. Leverage limits are now determined by the US.

Treasuries will not come unglued. Deals are coming where Powell will relieve banks' statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and huge sums of capital will be released and Treasuries will benefit. (As they will, plus US $, when EU/Nato goes to war against Russia - my 5 cents.)

Some of you that have been around a while might remember a few years back I reckoned TLT would drop into the 80s and later the 70s. I'm far more optimistic now. Still holding. Also, we had discussions on where the real power of the "High Cabal"/PTB lay. Luongo adds a thought to that discussion along the lines: "The bankers running the world [or trying to] don't have Wikipedia pages".

[SOL]

If you think out of the box, a lot of this is already baked in, especially when you plug it into how people actually make decisions. Most don't use logic, even if they think they do. They are driven and directed by emotions. So when someone throws out a stat like "bearish sentiment is at 60," that doesn't tell you much on its own. The real question is how it got there. Did it slowly climb from 50 to 55 to 60, maybe spike to 70? Or did it just shoot up to 60 and drop straight to 45? Same number, totally different message. The story behind the number is everything.

Now about LIBOR and SOFR. As far as I remember, that shift didn't just happen overnight. It had been planned for years. It started rolling out around 2021 and was officially wrapped up by June 30, 2023. The public excuse was the LIBOR scandal from 2012. That was the headline reason. But let's not pretend that's the full picture. When something this foundational changes, there's always more happening behind the curtain. If there's an outsized reaction to a structure or system that affects the flow of money, someone's orchestrating it. These things don't just spin out for no reason.

This is exactly why we stopped looking at things in black and white. Take tariffs. Instead of asking whether they're good or bad, we looked at how they were being used. With the right touch, they could be effective. Misused, they backfire. It depends on the intent and the level of pressure applied. Same thing with Trump. Most people either worship him or write him off as a moron. Both positions miss the point. What matters is the emotional current created and how much it's being amplified. The more stretched people get, the more polarised they become and the easier it is to drain them. The goal is simple—divide people enough so they don't notice when they're robbed in broad daylight.

Look at bonds. The market feels like it's reaching its maximum emotional stretching point. The rubber band is close to snapping. Once that tension breaks, you'll likely see a sharp rally. But almost no one has the discipline to wait it out. Something similar is happening in palladium, but in a different manner. Technically, bonds have been extremely oversold for a while. But in this market, technicals on their own don't hold much water. You need to stack that with emotional analysis. The big players now thrive on pushing emotional extremes and conning the masses to dump assets at rock-bottom prices. It's like they get a kick out of adding insult to injury. Put another way, logic gives you the setup, and emotion gives you the trigger.

Time to stop. I’ve already written a mini-novel. To sum it all up, everything is wired into the money supply. As it rises, so does the filth. Not just greed, but real, dirty, soul-rotting evil. The kind that smiles in public and bleeds you dry in private. Nobody at the top wants that spigot shut off. Especially the bloodsuckers who’ve built their world on free money, easy leverage, and the illusion of control. They’ll burn the whole thing down or try to before they let go of that tap.

[George1010]

As for TLT—it was coiled and ready to break out, then the tariff noise kicked in. Typical pattern: things were stabilising, inflation cooling, China ready to ship its inventory, and then Trump throws out some headline bait. He says one thing, does another. This tariff talk could unwind just as fast as it escalated.

So, we’re staying patient and watching how this tariff dance with the devil unfolds.

From your latest update:

Quick note on bonds: rates were lowered, and there was no positive reaction. Tariff wars hit, and bonds
dropped. Markets crashed—bonds didn't react like they usually do. Tariffs are being eased, and TLT is
still stuck under the 93–94 zone.

Listening to a Tom Luongo podcast with Caitlin Long (https://tomluongo.me/2025/04/19/podcast ... that-wasnt) he pointed out that the hit to bonds over tariffs despite all the rumors was not engineered by Chinese selling, it was EU dumping along with London and Ottawa. TPTB are desperate to destroy DJT because he has reordered the financial world by decoupling the US from the old colonial system of LIBOR which was the "tail wagging the dog". The US is on SOFR (secured overnight financing rate) from March 31st.

Since 1984, LIBOR was set by 18 banks in City of London with just one US bank (JPM) involved and its rate touched everything. DJT, Powell and Bessant have now fucked over the European system. We've gone from infinite rehypothecating with no posting of collateral to a secured system with collateral. Leverage limits are now determined by the US.

Treasuries will not come unglued. Deals are coming where Powell will relieve banks' statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and huge sums of capital will be released and Treasuries will benefit. (As they will, plus US $, when EU/Nato goes to war against Russia - my 5 cents.)

Some of you that have been around a while might remember a few years back I reckoned TLT would drop into the 80s and later the 70s. I'm far more optimistic now. Still holding. Also, we had discussions on where the real power of the "High Cabal"/PTB lay. Luongo adds a thought to that discussion along the lines: "The bankers running the world [or trying to] don't have Wikipedia pages".

Thanks for the post. There are some interesting ideas to dig into and food for deeper thought. My quick take on this topic is this; the West feels like it’s rotting from the inside out. The moral compass is not just broken, I think its completely missing or someone stole it

[jonnyfrank]

I have enjoyed the last few posts and the insights. Thank you to the contributors! Great stuff! Yes, the world has gone sideways. Honor is out of style, for sure. As for NATO/US fighting Russia, I don't see it happening. Personally, I would rather see the US align with Russia and tell the EU to F-off!

[stefk]

Well Jonny, JD Vance already said in Munich two months ago, to european leaders to f off, it was a historical speech.

https://youtu.be/0V2NVRpANxI?si=9-_py2932oGRB8Y2

President Trump really wants to turn the page, he really wants to speak peace and business with presidnt Putin.

"""there is fundamental mistrust between Russia and the west, its the thing the president thinks is stupid, we should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past""""

[Budge]

Well Jonny, JD Vance already said in Munich two months ago, to european leaders to f off, it was a historical speech.

https://youtu.be/0V2NVRpANxI?si=9-_py2932oGRB8Y2

President Trump really wants to turn the page, he really wants to speak peace and business with presidnt Putin.

"""there is fundamental mistrust between Russia and the west, its the thing the president thinks is stupid, we should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past""""

The West's problem: it's a serial liar.

[Budge]

Thanks for the post. There are some interesting ideas to dig into and food for deeper thought. My quick take on this topic is this; the West feels like it’s rotting from the inside out. The moral compass is not just broken, I think its completely missing or someone stole it

Agreed that West is rotting from the inside but deliberately so.

Back to TLT: saw this today: "The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) saw more than $2 billion of inflows last week." From etf.com article on TLT finds buyers.

https://www.etf.com/sections/news/tlt-f ... ig-5-level

[MarkD]

Been fishing for more TMF to reach a full position but price barely eluded by limit buy under 34.90. Will keep trying...

[jonnyfrank]

The bottom for TLT and TMF must be out there somewhere......meanwhile, palladium showing some chutzpah.