TMF and TLT

[jonnyfrank]

I am still not seeing how these can go up based on TA alone. The FED seems to want to destroy the country, and Yellen needs to simply go away all together. So many mixed messages. It is a horror show with evil characters. Any real insight out there other then "I am not buying bonds right now?".

[Budge]

I am still not seeing how these can go up based on TA alone. The FED seems to want to destroy the country, and Yellen needs to simply go away all together. So many mixed messages. It is a horror show with evil characters. Any real insight out there other then "I am not buying bonds right now?".

I'd agree on TA but given the crazy times... I can put together scenarios for bonds to shoot up and down:

More wars on the continent/everywhere: Money floods into US dollar, drives it up, plus interest rates crashes bonds. Money floods to "safe" asset - bonds - they take off.

US pisses off China even more: China dumps its US bonds even faster. Crashes bonds.

Treasury buys even more of our bonds and destroys confidence (even more!!) Bonds crash.

No one wants to buy our stinking bonds at roll over.

As black swans are by definition unknowable until they aren't!...Try this on for size. Government decides investors are too stupid to invest their retirement savings into wildly gyrating markets (wars may be breaking out all over). Therefore, the government will take your IRAs/401Ks etc. and invest them in the safest of safest bonds that fiat money can buy. Bonds go crazy.

All in all, if you are uncomfortable with TLT etc. steer clear and don't put more money into it (that's what I've done but still holding some). Couple years ago, I think I forecast TLT going into the 80s based on quarterly charts. Looking at it now Q'ly has it headed into the 70s. But plenty of volatility. Have things to do so I'll have deeper dive tonight.

[jonnyfrank]

Budge…thank you. That was insightful. I know federal hiring is going through the roof, and one of its TSP (401k) offerings is the G Fund, which is purely US bonds. Perhaps the government might mandate a certain percentage holding of that fund for all federal employees. I do see a quick band aid approach coming by the Fed which could give bonds a radical bump up in the ST, but like SOL I don’t see that as sustainable. Right now, I am holding even though I am not buying….

[jonnyfrank]

Also, with the 20 year hitting 5 percent chance perhaps that will create some buying and bump up the price. We shall see how today goes.

[Budge]

Also, with the 20 year hitting 5 percent chance perhaps that will create some buying and bump up the price. We shall see how today goes.

Article on the markets starting to gag on the volume of Treasury debt coming out:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2024/05/ ... ng-supply/

[Budge]

Haven't been on the forums much lately - the Mrs retired end of August and I've never been so busy! LOL. End of March, I tore my sacroiliac which was a tad unpleasant. Now I'm rebuilding my deck. Anyway, had a look at the charts (using the now Schwab's thinkorswim). FWIW.

With about 3 hours to the markets opening noise first. TLT is at 88.98. Day: ADX going up and MACD crossing over going down, money flowing out (Chaikin (CMF) and Money Flow (MF)) support at 88.63 doesn't hold.

Week: don't think support at 87.78 holds (ADX turning up, MACD down, CMF up and MF down).

Month: ADX and MACD level (can't make up their minds) support (S) 84.31 and initial resistance (R) 97.4.

Quarter: it's in the shitter. 74 maybe lower.

Year: down (S) at 73.53