Bitcoin Outlook and Market's Selling Climax Potential

[SOL]

Sentiment outlook
Bullish sentiment has indeed pulled back, yet it hasn't retraced as much as necessary to signal a bottom. Currently, the it stands at 31, indicating it remains relatively bullish. Notably, the SPX is trading below the 4200 level, a robust support level. If the SPX concludes the week beneath this threshold, former support may transform into resistance.

Selling climax
Given that bullish sentiment still appears somewhat elevated, the potential for a selling climax looms larger. A selling climax involves swift and aggressive downward movements, typically occurring within a span of about five days. Such an event could push bearish sentiment readings beyond 51 while driving bullish readings below 21.00.

The world of Bitcoin
Shifting our focus to the world of Bitcoin, the pattern is showing signs of strengthening. As we closely monitor its performance throughout the week, it's worth noting that Bitcoin is currently trading in the extremely overbought range on weekly charts. Despite this, we are considering deploying a quarter of our funds into it. The rationale behind this move is the strong long-term potential, with the possibility of it surging to 45,000 USD. However, the short-term pattern, until recently, suggested that it might be prudent to wait for a pullback before making any investment decisions.

we are working on the next issue

[MarkD]

The monthly lower Bollinger Band is hanging around that October 22 bottom.

https://imgur.com/qSimHUB

[bpcw]

The sentiment figures are for up to midnight on the Wednesday, I doubt most leave it until then so the figures wouldn't reflect all of Wednesday and Thursday's market drops and the fear that it would have engendered, just something to consider.

[langdj]

The sentiment figures are for up to midnight on the Wednesday, I doubt most leave it until then so the figures wouldn't reflect all of Wednesday and Thursday's market drops and the fear that it would have engendered, just something to consider.

Do you have a link for this? Thanks either way

[SOL]

From a technical perspective, the sharp drop in the markets, especially in the Dow and SPX, should ideally push bearish sentiment to around 50 while pushing bullish sentiment below 20. Failure to see this shift will require another selling wave. However, at present, intriguing/tempting opportunities are emerging in the resource sector. It's almost tempting to suggest that investments in the resource sector could yield higher returns than the AI-tech sector.

For example, I have allocated 50% more than I usually would to Palladium due to its promising long-term prospects. Short-term market fluctuations don't concern me. I'm also following the strategy of living below my means and converting needs into wants to save money, which I intend to invest in the markets. If Uranium experiences a substantial pullback on the weekly charts, I plan to increase my investment by 50%.

The next update will be sent out in two parts

[bpcw]

The sentiment figures are for up to midnight on the Wednesday, I doubt most leave it until then so the figures wouldn't reflect all of Wednesday and Thursday's market drops and the fear that it would have engendered, just something to consider.

Do you have a link for this? Thanks either way

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

[bpcw]

From a technical perspective, the sharp drop in the markets, especially in the Dow and SPX, should ideally push bearish sentiment to around 50 while pushing bullish sentiment below 20. Failure to see this shift will require another selling wave. However, at present, intriguing/tempting opportunities are emerging in the resource sector. It's almost tempting to suggest that investments in the resource sector could yield higher returns than the AI-tech sector.

For example, I have allocated 50% more than I usually would to Palladium due to its promising long-term prospects. Short-term market fluctuations don't concern me. I'm also following the strategy of living below my means and converting needs into wants to save money, which I intend to invest in the markets. If Uranium experiences a substantial pullback on the weekly charts, I plan to increase my investment by 50%.

The next update will be sent out in two parts

Latest sentiment bearish readings @ 50 according to AAII, and that is after a few up days so how are we looking as far as this being in a sustained rally or you expecting another wave of selling?

[bobdylan]

Bullish sentiment failed to fall below 20, so my take is that another selling wave is likely. However, I will stand by for the next update.

[SOL]

From a technical perspective, the sharp drop in the markets, especially in the Dow and SPX, should ideally push bearish sentiment to around 50 while pushing bullish sentiment below 20. Failure to see this shift will require another selling wave. However, at present, intriguing/tempting opportunities are emerging in the resource sector. It's almost tempting to suggest that investments in the resource sector could yield higher returns than the AI-tech sector.

For example, I have allocated 50% more than I usually would to Palladium due to its promising long-term prospects. Short-term market fluctuations don't concern me. I'm also following the strategy of living below my means and converting needs into wants to save money, which I intend to invest in the markets. If Uranium experiences a substantial pullback on the weekly charts, I plan to increase my investment by 50%.

The next update will be sent out in two parts

Latest sentiment bearish readings @ 50 according to AAII, and that is after a few up days so how are we looking as far as this being in a sustained rally or you expecting another wave of selling?

The subsequent segments of the market update were postponed because I wanted to wait until we tabulated the most recent sentiment data. While bullish readings remained above 20, bearish sentiment will come in at approximately 52. Around 90% of the data has already been tabulated, and it doesn't seem likely that the figure will dip below 51. Based on this, the stage is being set for a rally.

Furthermore, the Dow utilities are on the verge of generating a strong positive divergence signal, which adds to the bullish outlook. At this point, it's safe to say that the overall picture has significantly improved, and the path of least resistance is no longer downward. In fact, if another sell-off occurs, it would transform a good opportunity into an exceptional one.

The only factor that could potentially alter this positive scenario is a black swan event, which, by its very nature, is beyond anyone's ability to predict in advance.

[Expert]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask this, but as a recent (but not completely new) subscriber, the suggested reading section says to divide your money into 3 or 4 lots for each play and then deploy them based on what the portfolio says. It's been mentioned that none of the plays ever have entry prices at current market prices, because you want to get in at the best possible price. We'll, what if the price only reaches the entry price for the first or second lot, but not for the third and 4th lot?? In that case, do we only enter the position with 2 lots instead of 4? Like, I'm afraid that I only got 2 lots at the suggested entry price instead of 4 because the stocks and market took aff before it could get down to the entry range for all 4 lots. Is this a concern? Or is this to be expected sometimes?
Thanks

[bpcw]

From a technical perspective, the sharp drop in the markets, especially in the Dow and SPX, should ideally push bearish sentiment to around 50 while pushing bullish sentiment below 20. Failure to see this shift will require another selling wave. However, at present, intriguing/tempting opportunities are emerging in the resource sector. It's almost tempting to suggest that investments in the resource sector could yield higher returns than the AI-tech sector.

For example, I have allocated 50% more than I usually would to Palladium due to its promising long-term prospects. Short-term market fluctuations don't concern me. I'm also following the strategy of living below my means and converting needs into wants to save money, which I intend to invest in the markets. If Uranium experiences a substantial pullback on the weekly charts, I plan to increase my investment by 50%.

The next update will be sent out in two parts

Latest sentiment bearish readings @ 50 according to AAII, and that is after a few up days so how are we looking as far as this being in a sustained rally or you expecting another wave of selling?

The subsequent segments of the market update were postponed because I wanted to wait until we tabulated the most recent sentiment data. While bullish readings remained above 20, bearish sentiment will come in at approximately 52. Around 90% of the data has already been tabulated, and it doesn't seem likely that the figure will dip below 51. Based on this, the stage is being set for a rally.

Furthermore, the Dow utilities are on the verge of generating a strong positive divergence signal, which adds to the bullish outlook. At this point, it's safe to say that the overall picture has significantly improved, and the path of least resistance is no longer downward. In fact, if another sell-off occurs, it would transform a good opportunity into an exceptional one.

The only factor that could potentially alter this positive scenario is a black swan event, which, by its very nature, is beyond anyone's ability to predict in advance.

Thanks Sol.

[bpcw]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask this, but as a recent (but not completely new) subscriber, the suggested reading section says to divide your money into 3 or 4 lots for each play and then deploy them based on what the portfolio says. It's been mentioned that none of the plays ever have entry prices at current market prices, because you want to get in at the best possible price. We'll, what if the price only reaches the entry price for the first or second lot, but not for the third and 4th lot?? In that case, do we only enter the position with 2 lots instead of 4? Like, I'm afraid that I only got 2 lots at the suggested entry price instead of 4 because the stocks and market took aff before it could get down to the entry range for all 4 lots. Is this a concern? Or is this to be expected sometimes?
Thanks

Yes it's to be expected, if for example you only invest 2 lots out of a stock divided into 4 lots because the stock has taken off then you can allocate the remaining funds to another position. Basically you will probably never get a scenario where all your stocks have all lots invested. If TI knew all lots would be invested they wouldn't divide into lots but just tell you to invest a larger amount into the last lot, they do it that way because no one knows how low a stock will go.