TLT thoughts....

[jonnyfrank]

TLT has been beaten up pretty badly ST. Thoughts on this play for the ST and LT? Good buying point?

[MarkD]

I think Sol has indicated it's in the buy zone. My own strategy would agree and I am considering moving funds which are held in BIL into TLT as it dips ever lower.....divvies are pretty close atm.

https://ibb.co/yRJ3bJZ

The blue line is VWAP from the IPO and ATL. Notice the confluence of O/H resistance and the pink dashed merging into the other lines from prior lows. Sol stole his price target from me!

[deepthinker]

I am sitting and waiting for the mountain to come to me. Long term I see this as a good Trade but I will wait for it to dip a bit more and then start selling puts

[MarkD]

Agree with the idea of selling puts. But I want to use this for my "cash" when not allocated to stock positions. Both will work.

And the best time to buy will coincide with a top in the dollar most likely.

[AstuteShift]

No true confirmation yet, tbh palladium and AI stocks not so well known are better in terms of putting your money to work

Bond bulls got absolutely butchered the last year or so for being early.

Out of all the sectors and markets, bonds are the least attractive for me

[jonnyfrank]

Man oh man, TLT is ugly right now. Time to load up?

[MarkD]

Not yet imo but the monthly is still above the low of October 22 which bottomed at 89.54 (adjusted per Stockcharts.com) or 91.85 (adjusted).

Volume is pretty high so that's an indication of capitulation which has been ongoing for over a year.

https://ibb.co/6bctCf6

[jonnyfrank]

Holy cow….this certainly looks like a screaming buy now. My question is, what would cause it to tank further?

[SOL]

Holy cow….this certainly looks like a screaming buy now. My question is, what would cause it to tank further?

There was a time when NVDA and TSLA were not well-received by investors, but sentiment around them has since changed. Now, TLT, PALL, and several other stocks and sectors are facing a similar lack of popularity. It can be challenging to buy when things appear bleak, as our instincts often push us to sell and run. However, sentiment data has now normalized, and we will aggressively buy ito sectors or stocks that are currently unpopular.

In the case of TLT, it's expected to experience a devastating turnaround. The question remains whether this marks a long-term bottom or not, but what's certain is that the rebound rally will be signficant. On the other hand, with commodities, the turnaround could potentially last for years.

[Budge]

Holy cow….this certainly looks like a screaming buy now. My question is, what would cause it to tank further?

There was a time when NVDA and TSLA were not well-received by investors, but sentiment around them has since changed. Now, TLT, PALL, and several other stocks and sectors are facing a similar lack of popularity. It can be challenging to buy when things appear bleak, as our instincts often push us to sell and run. However, sentiment data has now normalized, and we will aggressively buy ito sectors or stocks that are currently unpopular.

In the case of TLT, it's expected to experience a devastating turnaround. The question remains whether this marks a long-term bottom or not, but what's certain is that the rebound rally will be signficant. On the other hand, with commodities, the turnaround could potentially last for years.

There is "a disturbance in the force". When the country is led by bullying morons, intent on instigating wars and turning the nation into a banana republic the reaction is going to be to unload the debt.

[SOL]

There is "a disturbance in the force". When the country is led by bullying morons, intent on instigating wars and turning the nation into a banana republic the reaction is going to be to unload the debt.

That goes without saying, it's evident that we have a group of individuals with a considerable talent for ruining a country. People often complain about China, but to put it simply, most of them are Armchair generals full of hot air. For starters, they boast the world's largest and most efficient high-speed train network. In contrast, we don't even have a single bullet train, but we do seem to have an abundance of "Bullet heads"

Additionally, they produce a greater number of graduates with backgrounds in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). They stand as the largest steel producers globally, and their shipyard capacity dwarfs ours by almost 500%. Yet, we tend to gauge success primarily through GDP, which is largely reliant on debt and financial instruments. We are progressively producing less each day, yet our leaders' Mouths continue to expand. It's becoming increasingly challenging to determine which source produces more sewage – the posterior or the anterior

While bonds should experience a robust counter rally, there's no assurance that it will be sustainable. Predicting the next ill-advised move by our leaders has become a formidable task. Another aspect that experts miss/overlook is the Federal Reserve's potential decision not to raise interest rates after the next meeting. They could opt to maintain them at the current level for an extended period, and that alone could wreak havoc on the financial landscape.

Another factor that warrants attention is the shift of commodity-based nations towards influencing prices in the Western world. Put simply, they intend to charge higher fees to offset the impact of a stronger dollar. Take oil and uranium, for instance – Other commodities are likely to follow suit in this trend.

[jonnyfrank]

TLT price is getting scary....what could happen where this turns and violently runs up? Is 80 the next target? Holy cow!

[Budge]

TLT price is getting scary....what could happen where this turns and violently runs up? Is 80 the next target? Holy cow!

I think last year, I said $87 as a possible low based on quarterly charts. Just looked at the charts and can't get a fix on a low unless I use a yearly chart and potential very long-term low of $72. All the periods before that show RSI very oversold so we should get some sort of bounce, but I think the trend is down.

[jonnyfrank]

Thanks for that insight. This bond drop is disturbing.