USA housing market insights

[jonnyfrank]

I am interested in any insight on the residential real estate market in the USA. I live in north Texas where the market continues to be relatively strong. Furthermore, high tech companies continue to move into the area with transplants coming into the area and creating more demand.

I sold my home about a year ago (a good move it appears) and have been renting since. I am leaning toward renewing my lease, but am looking for a "good buy" before I sign (so far, I only see overpriced properties).

Anyway, what do the PTBs here think of the real estate market? Buy now or wait a year? I may finance with a mortgage but don't have to.

Any and all insight is appreciated.

[langdj]

I am interested in any insight on the residential real estate market in the USA. I live in north Texas where the market continues to be relatively strong. Furthermore, high tech companies continue to move into the area with transplants coming into the area and creating more demand.

I sold my home about a year ago (a good move it appears) and have been renting since. I am leaning toward renewing my lease, but am looking for a "good buy" before I sign (so far, I only see overpriced properties).

Anyway, what do the PTBs here think of the real estate market? Buy now or wait a year? I may finance with a mortgage but don't have to.

Any and all insight is appreciated.

I personally think real estate will continue to go up for these reasons

1. US just has unfair advantage pretty much everywhere you look.

2. Race to bottom for all currencies probably won by the US will equal inflation. Enjoy your piece of shit ranch, even in Texas for 1 Million

3. The industrialized world has had major population decline which will depresses prices in many countries (e.g. Germany. Japan, China, Spain) However the US still has Mexico / African immigration fueling prices

4. Interest rates rising to fight inflation has always felt temporary and was for optics. The Fed will always want to create more money out of thin air. Houses will surge when they start dropping again. It will be like this 2-3 year hiatus on from low interest rates was an anomaly.



Some things to consider that may deter you, mostly concerning government intervention

1. During Covid Landlords where considered evil, even your small time landlord like myself. I am in Massachusetts and just sold my rental property last summer. It was hard to watch all these protests against landlords. The assumption by many people is that private citizens should have their wealth redistributed in the form not paying rent. It was only banking interest that stopped the small and weak Landlord lobby in Massachusetts from getting steam rolled.

2. They already have carbon credits for business. I can picture them making carbon credits for houses, instantly depressing prices for bigger, nicer homes. Welcome to your tiny home! Enjoy your cricket bar in your living room / kitchen / bathroom!

3. If you own a second home you are also probably considered evil by the masses on some level. No one will feel bad for the folks who have extra taxes thrown on people who have second homes. We also saw that talk during Covid

4. Rent Control legislation.

At the end of the day you need to own appreciating assets though. The Mega Inflation trend is real. Real estate is probably better than stocks! For me Real Estate has worked out a lot better. It comes down to wether you want to do the effort or not.

[Budge]

Some things to consider that may deter you, mostly concerning government intervention

1. During Covid Landlords where considered evil, even your small time landlord like myself. I am in Massachusetts and just sold my rental property last summer. It was hard to watch all these protests against landlords. The assumption by many people is that private citizens should have their wealth redistributed in the form not paying rent. It was only banking interest that stopped the small and weak Landlord lobby in Massachusetts from getting steam rolled.

2. They already have carbon credits for business. I can picture them making carbon credits for houses, instantly depressing prices for bigger, nicer homes. Welcome to your tiny home! Enjoy your cricket bar in your living room / kitchen / bathroom!

3. If you own a second home you are also probably considered evil by the masses on some level. No one will feel bad for the folks who have extra taxes thrown on people who have second homes. We also saw that talk during Covid

4. Rent Control legislation.

5. Push for Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs):

The push for the 15-minute city is underway. Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) are becoming increasingly popular as cities across the globe are rezoning neighborhoods to permit additional properties to be built on the same land as existing homes. Some are now referring to these units as “backyard homes” as they are becoming a normalized part of life amid the housing crisis.

In January, Freddie Mac reported that 32% of people were interested in potentially building an ADU on their property. At the time, 71% of respondents were not familiar with the concept. In April, the company released a three-year plan to make these units widely available. They are marketing it as an attempt to help the poor, especially minorities, obtain home ownership. Will asking people to live on land they do not own really “eliminate disparities among Black and Latino communities?”

It remains to be seen how these ADUs will impact overall prices in a neighborhood, but one would imagine overcrowding would decrease overall desirability. I reported that BlackRock is the largest landowner in the US, holding over $120 billion in real estate. “Our focus is on building single-family rental housing that can be managed and operated similar to multifamily properties with dedicated property management, leasing and amenities,” the company’s website states. “Additionally, BlackRock invests in multifamily properties, apartment complexes, and other residential real estate.”

BlackRock is a World Economic Forum partner working to usher in the new age of 15-minute cities where the masses are confined to designated areas. Absolutely nothing is being done to address the housing crisis that has made the prospect of homeownership a far-fetched dream for the next generation. Instead, the top is siphoning the power to control shelter and shelter costs. You will own nothing and be happy.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/mark ... opularity/

Then you have the Mayor of New York who wants to use your spare bedrooms to house illegals. ("And the beat goes on.")

[SOL]

Being a landlord in the US is no longer an easy task. While there is potential for upside, owning real estate comes at a significant cost. I know someone in Austin, Texas, who expressed that being a landlord is no longer as enjoyable as it was in the past; in fact, his exact words "It's downright painful and sucks". The headache and stress were not worth the effort, so he cashed out. He took a chance on a property in Cabo as he got a good deal. So far, it seems to be a good decision as the rental income in that area is very high.

Even when there is an opportunity to make money, the big players want to make it harder for regular people to rake in some extra dough.

One alternative might be investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). I have examined our list, and two notable players are DEA and IIPR. However, DEA has a much higher price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, so IIPR appears more attractive in that aspect. Both companies also offer dividends exceeding 7% and are trading in the extremely oversold zone on the monthly chart.

[MarkD]

Some things to consider that may deter you, mostly concerning government intervention

1. During Covid Landlords where considered evil, even your small time landlord like myself. I am in Massachusetts and just sold my rental property last summer. It was hard to watch all these protests against landlords. The assumption by many people is that private citizens should have their wealth redistributed in the form not paying rent. It was only banking interest that stopped the small and weak Landlord lobby in Massachusetts from getting steam rolled.

2. They already have carbon credits for business. I can picture them making carbon credits for houses, instantly depressing prices for bigger, nicer homes. Welcome to your tiny home! Enjoy your cricket bar in your living room / kitchen / bathroom!

3. If you own a second home you are also probably considered evil by the masses on some level. No one will feel bad for the folks who have extra taxes thrown on people who have second homes. We also saw that talk during Covid

4. Rent Control legislation.

5. Push for Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs):

The push for the 15-minute city is underway. Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) are becoming increasingly popular as cities across the globe are rezoning neighborhoods to permit additional properties to be built on the same land as existing homes. Some are now referring to these units as “backyard homes” as they are becoming a normalized part of life amid the housing crisis.

In January, Freddie Mac reported that 32% of people were interested in potentially building an ADU on their property. At the time, 71% of respondents were not familiar with the concept. In April, the company released a three-year plan to make these units widely available. They are marketing it as an attempt to help the poor, especially minorities, obtain home ownership. Will asking people to live on land they do not own really “eliminate disparities among Black and Latino communities?”

It remains to be seen how these ADUs will impact overall prices in a neighborhood, but one would imagine overcrowding would decrease overall desirability. I reported that BlackRock is the largest landowner in the US, holding over $120 billion in real estate. “Our focus is on building single-family rental housing that can be managed and operated similar to multifamily properties with dedicated property management, leasing and amenities,” the company’s website states. “Additionally, BlackRock invests in multifamily properties, apartment complexes, and other residential real estate.”

BlackRock is a World Economic Forum partner working to usher in the new age of 15-minute cities where the masses are confined to designated areas. Absolutely nothing is being done to address the housing crisis that has made the prospect of homeownership a far-fetched dream for the next generation. Instead, the top is siphoning the power to control shelter and shelter costs. You will own nothing and be happy.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/mark ... opularity/

Then you have the Mayor of New York who wants to use your spare bedrooms to house illegals. ("And the beat goes on.")

This sounds wonderful, until reality sets in.

I will start with this:

https://ibb.co/TRz59Qf

Which increases demand geometrically for this,

https://ibb.co/X5Y3JjX

And this,

https://ibb.co/xYptwL9

The typical residential street looks something like this,

https://ibb.co/DLXV5Cd

Essentially, all services including ADU habitat construction are severely impacted. Meaning significantly higher taxation, and resentful public pushback. This will not happen on a large scale across the USA. Essentially an unmanageable situation.

It is cheaper by orders of magnitude to build on a greenfield. A property that will be given greater asset value by the PTB which allows the elites even greater tax advantage.

[jlhooter]

MarkD excellent visual which I enjoyed greatly.

[jonnyfrank]

Really good insight everyone--thank you. I will be renewing my rental lease until June 30, 2024, while standing by with cash if anything comes along.

[Budge]

Some things to consider that may deter you, mostly concerning government intervention

1. During Covid Landlords where considered evil, even your small time landlord like myself. I am in Massachusetts and just sold my rental property last summer. It was hard to watch all these protests against landlords. The assumption by many people is that private citizens should have their wealth redistributed in the form not paying rent. It was only banking interest that stopped the small and weak Landlord lobby in Massachusetts from getting steam rolled.

2. They already have carbon credits for business. I can picture them making carbon credits for houses, instantly depressing prices for bigger, nicer homes. Welcome to your tiny home! Enjoy your cricket bar in your living room / kitchen / bathroom!

3. If you own a second home you are also probably considered evil by the masses on some level. No one will feel bad for the folks who have extra taxes thrown on people who have second homes. We also saw that talk during Covid

4. Rent Control legislation.

5. Push for Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs):

The push for the 15-minute city is underway. Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) are becoming increasingly popular as cities across the globe are rezoning neighborhoods to permit additional properties to be built on the same land as existing homes. Some are now referring to these units as “backyard homes” as they are becoming a normalized part of life amid the housing crisis.

In January, Freddie Mac reported that 32% of people were interested in potentially building an ADU on their property. At the time, 71% of respondents were not familiar with the concept. In April, the company released a three-year plan to make these units widely available. They are marketing it as an attempt to help the poor, especially minorities, obtain home ownership. Will asking people to live on land they do not own really “eliminate disparities among Black and Latino communities?”

It remains to be seen how these ADUs will impact overall prices in a neighborhood, but one would imagine overcrowding would decrease overall desirability. I reported that BlackRock is the largest landowner in the US, holding over $120 billion in real estate. “Our focus is on building single-family rental housing that can be managed and operated similar to multifamily properties with dedicated property management, leasing and amenities,” the company’s website states. “Additionally, BlackRock invests in multifamily properties, apartment complexes, and other residential real estate.”

BlackRock is a World Economic Forum partner working to usher in the new age of 15-minute cities where the masses are confined to designated areas. Absolutely nothing is being done to address the housing crisis that has made the prospect of homeownership a far-fetched dream for the next generation. Instead, the top is siphoning the power to control shelter and shelter costs. You will own nothing and be happy.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/mark ... opularity/

Then you have the Mayor of New York who wants to use your spare bedrooms to house illegals. ("And the beat goes on.")

This sounds wonderful, until reality sets in.

I will start with this:

https://ibb.co/TRz59Qf

Which increases demand geometrically for this,

https://ibb.co/X5Y3JjX

And this,

https://ibb.co/xYptwL9

The typical residential street looks something like this,

https://ibb.co/DLXV5Cd

Essentially, all services including ADU habitat construction are severely impacted. Meaning significantly higher taxation, and resentful public pushback. This will not happen on a large scale across the USA. Essentially an unmanageable situation.

It is cheaper by orders of magnitude to build on a greenfield. A property that will be given greater asset value by the PTB which allows the elites even greater tax advantage.

All excellent points. However, do you really think the PTB care? Especially if you happen to be in a blue city/state.

[AstuteShift]

Personally I’d like to be stress free and not deal with tenants and fixing anything.

I already have 2 properties in Eastern Europe, countries where the masses do not care about and in areas where it’s immune from societal pressures, especially wokism and mental suicide rainbow policies. It’s nice summer homes to escape

In the USA, can’t go wrong with REITS, no headaches and nice juicy dividends

[MarkD]

I am no real estate expert. My observations are local, regional. Where the jobs are real estate is doing well.

A comment on the Lou (local name for St. Louis). It has been dying for over 50 years. And it's a city with no county affiliation. St. Louis County is separated from the city and is huge, with dozens of communities, rich and poor.

The third tier counties surrounding St. Louis are booming. Businesses left the city and county due to over regulation and public unions. Private unions killed the economy and jobs left decades ago. Tax rates in St. Louis County are double what I paid in the city of Kansas City. MO, on homes half the size.

Kansas City is thriving. We have moved to Nashville which is a boomtown. Memphis is a mess, always has been.

My favorite observation has always been that union folks live and retire outside the area where they receive their paycheck/pension. Blue cities and states understand this and don't seem to recognize the issue which this has created. California's solution is to attempt taxation on those who have vacated. Might get interesting, all those dotcom millionaires now in Texas and Florida.

The tale of two cities is real.

Sol's comments regarding the USA south are verifiable. Almost 45% of the population is now in this zone, set to dominate politics for the next hundred years. Northern states are accepting this fact and attempting to delay a rude awakening via immigration, illegal or not. The middle of the country pretty much agrees with the south. Power has shifted.

In Nashville, family is still a thing, Sunday service is sacrosanct, and small businesses are closed.

I do believe he is correct it's the only hope and once the population in the south has grown in excess of 50% of the total population (if even possible), the trend can reverse positively.

But it may not get there in my lifetime so I am prepared for the next stop once family issues resolve themselves domestically.

[MarkD]

Just to confirm my comments on The Lou, this showed up over the weekend.

https://ibb.co/n8RG4XM

A bit surprised to see KC on this list tbh. I suspect the legalization of MJ for recreational use has negatively impacted the entire state of MO. A state wide vote last November approved the sale and use. Retail outlets opened this winter.

[SOL]

Not enough houses are being built. Perhaps, builders have learned a thing or two about maintaining stability (also known as extortion) by controlling the housing supply after the 2008 financial crisis. Real estate remains a promising investment, but the challenge lies in the increasing red tape and new government laws that make it harder to capitalize on the trend. The safest bet is likely to invest in REITs, as they provide a way to participate in the real estate market while potentially overcoming many of the difficulties associated with property ownership.

[SOL]

What Is Happening in the Housing Market?

Home construction surged in May and prices have ticked up, even with interest rates at a 15-year high. The resilience has surprised some economists.

Gianni Martinez, 31, thought that it would be fairly easy to buy an apartment.

Mortgage rates are now hovering around 7 percent — the highest they’ve been since 2007 — thanks to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation. Central bankers have lifted their official policy rate to about 5 percent over the past 15 months, which has translated into higher borrowing costs across the economy.

Mr. Martinez, a tech worker, expected that to cool down Miami real estate. But instead, he is finding himself in stiff competition for one- to two-bedroom apartments near the ocean. He has made seven or eight offers and is willing to put 25 percent down, but he keeps losing, often to people paying cash instead of taking out a pricey mortgage.

“Because of interest rates at 7 percent, I didn’t think it would be this competitive — but that doesn’t matter to cash buyers,” Mr. Martinez said, noting that he’s competing with foreign bidders and other young people who show up to open houses with their parents in tow, suggesting Mom or Dad may be helping to foot the bill.

“When there is a correctly priced listing, it’s a madhouse,” he said.

The Fed’s rate increases are aimed at slowing America’s economy — in part by restraining the housing market — to try to bring inflation under control. Those moves worked quickly at first to weaken interest-sensitive parts of the economy: Housing markets across the United States pulled back notably last year. But that cool-down seems to be cracking.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/26/busi ... -cost.html

[Triplethought]

Being a landlord in the US is no longer an easy task. While there is potential for upside, owning real estate comes at a significant cost. I know someone in Austin, Texas, who expressed that being a landlord is no longer as enjoyable as it was in the past; in fact, his exact words "It's downright painful and sucks". The headache and stress were not worth the effort, so he cashed out. He took a chance on a property in Cabo as he got a good deal. So far, it seems to be a good decision as the rental income in that area is very high.

Even when there is an opportunity to make money, the big players want to make it harder for regular people to rake in some extra dough.

One alternative might be investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). I have examined our list, and two notable players are DEA and IIPR. However, DEA has a much higher price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, so IIPR appears more attractive in that aspect. Both companies also offer dividends exceeding 7% and are trading in the extremely oversold zone on the monthly chart.

I was surprised to see IIPR invests in buildings for cannabis. I'm a bit gun shy after our big losses in Cannabis 2 years ago. DEA with it's government tenants seems way more safe if there is a big economic downturn.

[SOL]

I was surprised to see IIPR invests in buildings for cannabis. I'm a bit gun shy after our big losses in Cannabis 2 years ago. DEA with it's government tenants seems way more safe if there is a big economic downturn.

They are both extreme value plays, but aside from the cannabis issue, IIPR offers more value. Another interesting candidate in a completely separate sector is GBSD, sporting an enticing yield of 12.88%.