Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

Interim Market updates will only be posted here from now on
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SOL
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Re: Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

Post by SOL »

Investor87 wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 1:22 am

Found this 4 min video that makes too much sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1mjG_F8ppw&t=3s
Short and to the point, but the public's susceptibility to misinformation has become a formidable barrier to truth, leaving many unable to distinguish fact from fiction.

This article is quite interesting, a somewhat long read.

Climate change is a myth. We all know this, deep down. Some of you reading this may have been taken in by the fear-mongering governments or corrupt scientists so have been brainwashed into thinking climate change is a real thing that “threatens all of humanity” or some other nonsense, but it’s just that: nonsense. When you look closely at it, the so-called evidence for climate change, or “global warming” or “warmageddon” or “planetary death spiral” or whatever they’re calling it these days, it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

Take changes in sea level. They keep banging on about how the warming of the atmosphere causes rising sea levels, but if that was happening we’d have seen it by now! It’s been countless decades since they first started predicting this, but here we still are! But they persist in trying to convince us it’s a real threat, citing places that were supposedly “lost to the waves” and we’re supposed to believe that places like Atlantis, Miami or Skegness actually existed? You believe that rubbish and you probably believe we landed on Ganymede! And you’re an idiot, so there’s no hope for you.

And where does this rise in sea level supposedly come from – melting glacial ice? Like there was at any point massive blocks of ice just floating around in the ocean? You ever leave an ice cube in your drink last longer than five minutes? It melts, and yet we’re meant to believe these “ice caps” lasted millions of years. They’re not even trying to be convincing any more.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/bra ... o-you-need
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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Yodean
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magazine cover triggers

Post by Yodean »

Image

*****

May be time to increase China allocation for the long-term.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Yodean
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Re: Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

Post by Yodean »

Image

*****

I find it fun and helpful to keep an eye on the covers of Barron's and Economist.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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AstuteShift
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Re: Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

Post by AstuteShift »

Well, I’m still bearish on China (long term also) :mrgreen: this rings music to my ears
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jlhooter
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Re: Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

Post by jlhooter »

Yodean wrote: Fri Jun 02, 2023 5:35 pm Image

*****

I find it fun and helpful to keep an eye on the covers of Barron's and Economist.
What's the cover for the Nov 2022 dip?
Just because 95% is doing it doesn't make it right
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jlhooter
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Re: Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

Post by jlhooter »

I just checked Baron's Nov 10, 2022: "The US dollar is Superstrong. How to invest". DXY peaked at $113 and dove from there and hasn't been close since.

February 6, 2023
Pfizer Is Moving Beyond Covid. Why Its Stock Is a Buy.
Price was ~$44 and has bombed to ~$38

August 8, 2022
GE’s Looming Breakup Means It’s Time to Buy the Stock
Was $58, peaked at $63 and tanked to $49 by Oct 13 which is where you would have wanted to enter.

July 25, 2022
Unboxing Amazon: The Case for the Stock to Double
Went up for a few weeks from $134 to $142 than never looked back for many weeks bottoming at about $84 in Dec 2022
Just because 95% is doing it doesn't make it right
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nicolas
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Fading Barron's covers

Post by nicolas »

Barron's covers can be found here: https://www.barrons.com/magazine?archives=2023

It would be interesting to study in more detail the win/loss ratio and expected gain from fading Barron's covers after a given period. From a quick look at past covers, it seems to be hit or miss, about 50-50.

There are some good examples where their ability to recommend a stock at the exact top is uncanny. But I also found several examples of great picks:

November 29, 2021. IBM Is Finally Growing Again. The Stock Is One of Tech’s Few Bargains.
This cover corresponded to the bottom in IBM's wide trading range.
Image

January 10, 2022. It’s Time to Invest in Commodities. How to Do It Using Funds.
It was indeed time to invest in commodities. You certainly would have regretted going short on this cover.
Image

October 24, 2022. Big Oil’s Green Future. The Case for BP and Exxon.
This cover came out right before a breakout for BP.
Image

So, it's probably interesting to look further into it because there are good reasons why the covers of popular publications would reflect an already crowded position, but one has to be careful about confirmation bias from cherry-picked examples (including the ones above ;) ).
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Budge
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Re: Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

Post by Budge »

Just a thought: how about fading the "best" ESG companies? :shock: :shock:

Good company or no they are building in the seeds of their own destruction. Here's Motley Fool's current list although they do give a nod to traditional measures:

"Solid financial performance is a primary theme of ESG investing. As an ESG investor, you don't have to forgo solid returns to promote good corporate citizenship."

10 best ESG stocks right now
The 10 stocks in the table below deliver in two ways:

All have top MSCI ESG ratings.
All have reported double-digit annualized growth in diluted earnings per share (EPS) and net income over the past three years.
Due to current market conditions, these stocks have recently plummeted in value. Based on historical performance and strong business models, though, I expect them to remain good picks for long-term investing as part of an ESG strategy.

Table data source: MSCI, Investors.com, Morningstar data.

1 Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)
2 Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)
3 Best Buy (NYSE:BBY)
4 Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE)
5 Pool (NASDAQ:POOL)
6 Salesforce (NYSE:CRM)
7 Cadence (NASDAQ:CDNS)
8 Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU)
9 Idexx Laboratories (NASDAQ:IDXX)
10 Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX)

https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-ma ... re%20items
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jlhooter
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Re: Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

Post by jlhooter »

Recent Barron's cover.

June 12, 2023
Forget the Naysayers. Why the Market Can Keep Climbing.
Just because 95% is doing it doesn't make it right
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Yodean
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Re: Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

Post by Yodean »

Covers can certainly be hit and miss, but when they do work, they seem to work really, really well.

Here are the two magazines whose covers I monitor (one mentioned by Nicolas above):

https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/archive

https://www.barrons.com/magazine?archives=2023
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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