The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

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SOL
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The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

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New data from JPMorgan Asset Management published Monday shows estimated "excess savings" from U.S. households now stand at $900 billion, down from a peak of $2.1 trillion in early 2021 and roughly $1.9 trillion at the beginning of last year.

These savings have been drawn down as the personal savings rate has fallen sharply from historic highs seen during the pandemic.

The latest data on personal income and outlays from the BEA, released on December 23, showed the personal savings rate stood at 2.4% in November, down from a record high of 33.6% in March 2020.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer ... 19694.html
I will add more meat to this later but try to determine why individual investors will be forced to speculate sooner than later
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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LoriPrecisely
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

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SOL wrote: Tue Jan 03, 2023 3:16 pm I will add more meat to this later but try to determine why individual investors will be forced to speculate sooner than later
Don't all traders speculate every day?
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

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LoriPrecisely wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 6:03 pm
Don't all traders speculate every day?
To speculate is to form a theory or conjecture about a subject without firm evidence. So yes, you could say that, depending on what is deemed firm evidence. The point being evidence is getting less and less firm, manipulated.

I deem there is firm evidence markets will go up, but shy away from a potential semantic argument what is firm evidence. Firm enough for whom, a risk taker or not?
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

Post by Yodean »

LoriPrecisely wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 6:03 pm Don't all traders speculate every day?
Indeed, investing is just a euphemism for speculation, when push comes to shove.

Perhaps Sol was alluding to a potential nascent trend that the Herd will be motivated to assume more risks in terms of investing/speculation in the markets as people's cash reserves are drawn down, and personal debt accumulates. Not to mention the loss of purchasing power through inflation and taxation.
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

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Yodean wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:06 pm
LoriPrecisely wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 6:03 pm Don't all traders speculate every day?
Indeed, investing is just a euphemism for speculation, when push comes to shove.

Perhaps Sol was alluding to a potential nascent trend that the Herd will be motivated to assume more risks in terms of investing/speculation in the markets as people's cash reserves are drawn down, and personal debt accumulates. Not to mention the loss of purchasing power through inflation and taxation.
Well, if they are good poker players they may do well according to this recent study.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
A new study from the Federal Reserve finds that among professional investors, neither intelligence nor other personality traits and cognitive skills matter much.https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ul-trading
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

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LoriPrecisely wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:27 pm Well, if they are good poker players they may do well according to this recent study.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Yes, I actually think poker is very similar to investing, in many ways. Studying investing/trading has helped my poker skills significantly, and playing and studying poker has helped me understand the markets somewhat better.

All about risk/reward asymmetry, and so forth.
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

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Yodean wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:38 pm
LoriPrecisely wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:27 pm Well, if they are good poker players they may do well according to this recent study.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Yes, I actually think poker is very similar to investing, in many ways. Studying investing/trading has helped my poker skills significantly, and playing and studying poker has helped me understand the markets somewhat better.

All about risk/reward asymmetry, and so forth.
Have you read any of Annie Duke's books? "Quit" or "Thinking in Bets"?
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

Post by MarkD »

I read Duke's "Bets". It is a reasonably good read.

Also recommend "Winning Troughbred Strategies" by Dick Mitchell. Similar thought process.

With respect to investing, Sol's 1% per position deployed in several lots is great.
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

Post by LoriPrecisely »

MarkD wrote: Fri Jan 06, 2023 5:05 pm
With respect to investing, Sol's 1% per position deployed in several lots is great.
In an uptrend would be even better!! :D
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

Post by Yodean »

LoriPrecisely wrote: Fri Jan 06, 2023 4:15 pm Have you read any of Annie Duke's books? "Quit" or "Thinking in Bets"?
_How to Decide_ by Annie Duke, I have read. Pretty good, not focused on poker - still, her poker background influences her writing.

But also fun and useful to play a bit of poker - get a group of friends/frenemies/family, play low stakes ... quite helpful for investing/trading, imo.
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

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Meanwhile the EU lunatics have perhaps introduced a different form of starve model (except for wild beasts).
Drive out the Peasants and Starve out the City-Dwellers

Amongst the unceasing, innumerable offences against human life perpetrated by the European Commission’s gnomes and lackeys, there stands out a singularly repulsive 1992 Directive “Habitat-Fauna-Flora.”

For No Apparent Reason (there are zoos for such beasts), in 1992 the wolf thus became a “strictly protected” species and the victim-nations, namely those in the EU, compelled to encourage its increase and expansion.

There is nevertheless, an Unapparent Reason. The European Commission and its train of man-haters are waging war on Man. Like SARS-Cov-2, the climate non-emergency, and other forms of obfuscation, the wolf is a tool.

In terms of the war on the peasantry, the wolf is a weapon, precisely as though it were a missile or a tank.

I repeat, this is a war on Man.

Under the French Environmental Code’s Section L. 411-2, a peasant or breeder whose livelihood is threatened must demonstrate that three requirements have been met:

substantial harm to livestock;
lack of other satisfactory (sic) solutions;
the wolf packs must be allowed to go on living under “favourable” (sic) conditions in their natural domain
(editor’s note: in Western Europe, wolves have had no “natural” domain for over 200 years.)
Shooting a wolf without official permission is punishable with up to two years’ jail and 150,000 € in fines.

Until serious harm have been incurred, such permission is virtually impossible to obtain while most European countries forbid peasants, and more generally, the citizenry, from holding the firearms they would otherwise need under the circumstances. In the light of what we shall now see, even those amongst us who have never devoted a moment’s thought to the matter of an armed citizenry, are having very much of another think coming.

In plain speech: the peasant, whose lands may well have been in the family for several hundred years, is expected to be duly terrified, swoop up his children and chattels, and flee.

Needless to say, the European “authorities” never refer to the fact that the peasants and breeders now being literally cast to the wolves, inhabit the hills and mountains to produce what city-dwellers eat.

Make no mistake about it: such is the European Commission’s purpose.

Meanwhile, the great brown bear, another “strictly protected” species, has just struck and killed a youth in one of the world’s most densely-populated nations, Italy.

That too is the purpose.
Article goes into much more detail. Long read. I'm interested in the perspective of our European members.

https://www.thepostil.com/the-wolfsscha ... r-for-man/
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

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And talking about "starve models", right on cue comes our favourite population control and artificial meat freak Bill Gates:
Americans need to be extremely careful when food shopping as the US government approved fully lab-grown meat. They could be serving this at a restaurant near you without your knowledge. The meat is made from pre-cancerous animal cells as they’re the most likely to replicate. They then shape this lab-grown unknown product into whatever shape they need so that it looks like real meat.

US food standards are already extremely low as the USDA wants to keep you sick. Other countries, including China and Russia, refuse to buy many US-produced products as they are not safe for human consumption. For example, the US government allows ractopamine to be injected in pigs. Over 160 countries refused to buy pork from America because ractopamine is linked to cancer, autism, cardiovascular disease, and many other issues. How did they allow this chemical to pass health checks? Well, there are no health checks or regulations on what can be sold to the masses. The government conducted ONE study of six men, and one became ill with heart issues. That is why it is comical when the government implements regulation in the name of protecting consumer health. They only care about their bottom line.

They spray the produce with pesticides and inject our livestock with more chemicals, hormones, and antibiotics. Even the packaging standards in the US are lower than in other parts of the world. Look at all the glass products on the shelves outside the US. We use cheap plastics instead. This is why obesity rates are through the roof, as our natural bodies were not designed to process these unnatural chemicals.

No one knows the health consequences of lab-grown meat on public health. The WEF insisted that the world must decrease its meat consumption. Bill Gates is a huge investor in this mechanism. Gates said all wealthy nations should switch to synthetic meat, bought up countless farmland, and invested in his own cultivated meat business. The cultivated fake meat industry was valued at around $247 million in 2022 and it is expected to spike to $25 billion by 2030 – right on time for Agenda 2030. The Food Safety and Inspection Service has not determined how they will label these products; therefore, you may be eating pre-cancerous fake meat cells without your knowledge in the near future
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/inte ... ved-in-us/

Come to think of it bugs might be the healthier option. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

Post by MarkD »

The pump and dump scheme seems to have worked out well for PFE and MRNA. The former is now mid 30s hovering at 2019 highs and the latter is less than 25% of its ATH during the scam.

This food borne illness, pharma/medical care is the same stuff NAZI Germany permitted. We are in big trouble unless someone can turn this thing around.
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SOL
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Re: The Era of Speculate or Starve is about to begin

Post by SOL »

Budge wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2023 6:01 pm And talking about "starve models", right on cue comes our favourite population control and artificial meat freak

Come to think of it bugs might be the healthier option. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The phrase "first world in guns and butter, but underworld in terms of safety and good food" highlights a concerning disparity. It raises the issue we often discuss and highlighted in the last update. While money is useful, it rapidly loses value when fundamental aspects such as safety and access to quality food are compromised.

let's imagine a scenario where you have the opportunity to earn 100 million within a specific timeframe. However, there's a catch - you must consume d sandwich slightly laced with cyanide every day. This situation creates a race against time, where the question arises: Will you survive or succumb to the deadly consequences?
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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