Loss of American values and America In general Series

[jonnyfrank]

‘It really shouldn’t be this way’: Top economist Mohamed El-Erian blames the Fed for bad messaging and stock volatility

Economists are unhappy with persistently high inflation and how the Federal Reserve is addressing it. Since the start of 2022, the Fed has hiked interest rates eight times, most recently in February. At that time, the Fed’s chief, Jerome Powell, sounded cautiously optimistic by saying that a “disinflationary process” had started, although there was a long way to go and that smaller hikes could be expected in the coming months. Investors were excited by the news. Fast forward to a month later on Tuesday: Powell signaled that further increases are on the horizon. That news rattled investors, who sent key stock indexes down, as they braced for tighter economic conditions.

A leading economist who has repeatedly said the Fed’s goal of reducing inflation to 2% is unrealistic now thinks the central bank’s mixed messaging threatens financial and economic stability.

“It really shouldn’t be this way, and it doesn’t need to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, wrote Tuesday in an op-ed for Bloomberg. “Yet once again remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fueled considerable volatility in markets that could risk both economic well-being and financial stability.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/really-s ... 30666.html

Jonny, I recall you expressing some strong opinions about Powell recently. It seems that more and more people share the view that his speeches lack planning and he tends to act impulsively without considering the consequences of his words. In fact, many consider him to be one of the least effective Fed chairs regarding communication. It's as if he suffers from verbal diarrhea and can't control his impulses to speak out without considering the impact of his statements. Alternatively, some speculate that he may intentionally provoke reactions to achieve his desired effect. Regardless, his behaviour is contributing to market volatility.

A few weeks back he did an interview (I can't recall the purpose of the meeting). It kind of felt like a fireside chat, where they asked him questions about what he did at home, etc. He came off rather human, and I think it was when he mentioned something along the lines of inflation showing some signs of deflating, if you will. I am questioning why he has celebrity status, because that does give him more power to mess with the markets, which is not a good thing. Right now, the Fed has way too much influence because of his comments, and I think they need to stop. He just needs to shut his trap.

[chippermon]

‘It really shouldn’t be this way’: Top economist Mohamed El-Erian blames the Fed for bad messaging and stock volatility

Economists are unhappy with persistently high inflation and how the Federal Reserve is addressing it. Since the start of 2022, the Fed has hiked interest rates eight times, most recently in February. At that time, the Fed’s chief, Jerome Powell, sounded cautiously optimistic by saying that a “disinflationary process” had started, although there was a long way to go and that smaller hikes could be expected in the coming months. Investors were excited by the news. Fast forward to a month later on Tuesday: Powell signaled that further increases are on the horizon. That news rattled investors, who sent key stock indexes down, as they braced for tighter economic conditions.

A leading economist who has repeatedly said the Fed’s goal of reducing inflation to 2% is unrealistic now thinks the central bank’s mixed messaging threatens financial and economic stability.

“It really shouldn’t be this way, and it doesn’t need to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, wrote Tuesday in an op-ed for Bloomberg. “Yet once again remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fueled considerable volatility in markets that could risk both economic well-being and financial stability.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/really-s ... 30666.html

Jonny, I recall you expressing some strong opinions about Powell recently. It seems that more and more people share the view that his speeches lack planning and he tends to act impulsively without considering the consequences of his words. In fact, many consider him to be one of the least effective Fed chairs regarding communication. It's as if he suffers from verbal diarrhea and can't control his impulses to speak out without considering the impact of his statements. Alternatively, some speculate that he may intentionally provoke reactions to achieve his desired effect. Regardless, his behaviour is contributing to market volatility.

A few weeks back he did an interview (I can't recall the purpose of the meeting). It kind of felt like a fireside chat, where they asked him questions about what he did at home, etc. He came off rather human, and I think it was when he mentioned something along the lines of inflation showing some signs of deflating, if you will. I am questioning why he has celebrity status, because that does give him more power to mess with the markets, which is not a good thing. Right now, the Fed has way too much influence because of his comments, and I think they need to stop. He just needs to shut his trap.

Exactly. If you like volatility Jarome is your man. Is it poorly planned or is it expertly planned? I'm not sure. I'm leaning toward this is the plan.

[SOL]

https://youtu.be/ww5Lf97hXQM

[scott]

His-story, Her-story; okay etymology be damned, herstory it is, if she/her wants it. Methinks she knows, blame it on He-Him. Its all the same to me. Deny genetics, male and female DNA, chromosomes? Okay, you're what you think you are, I get it. I deem PTBs use it to obfuscate reality and keep us others in Plato's cave. Just sayin'.

[harryg]

I expect only certain feminists would claim that the origin of the word history has anything to do with 'his story'. A bit like saying that a Hispanic is a Panic owned by a chap, or that men shouldn't be allowed to have hernias.

BTW, that chocolate is bloody expensive isn't it? Less than 200g for $25? Maybe it's a joke website, I can't be sure.

Does anyone remember Yorkie bars? Might have just been a UK thing. In those days at least we knew which one of us was which.

[SOL]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WID6w4_ ... medyCentre

Gets the point across well, but its a bit cheeky

[harryg]

Gets the point across well, but its a bit cheeky

[scott]

I expect only certain feminists would claim that the origin of the word history has anything to do with 'his story'. A bit like saying that a Hispanic is a Panic owned by a chap, or that men shouldn't be allowed to have hernias.

Exactly.
@Sol, that Rick Gervais has some good stuff, and not afraid/shy about sharing.

[scott]

I expect only certain feminists would claim that the origin of the word history has anything to do with 'his story'. A bit like saying that a Hispanic is a Panic owned by a chap, or that men shouldn't be allowed to have hernias.

Exactly 'arry 'andlesticks.
@Sol, that Rick Gervais has some good stuff, and not afraid/shy about sharing.

[jlhooter]

*****

There is no stopping this trend ...

Can someone identify himself as this person’s dad and give them a good spanking? Does it work that way?

My dad had a sex change then we never saw him again.

He became trans-parent.



I'm quite pleased with that one.

I haven't laughed like this in a long time. Thanks Harry.

[SOL]

President Biden’s decision to approve a big oil-drilling project in Alaska feels like betrayal to climate warriors, given Biden’s campaign promise to “end fossil fuel” and pivot to a green-energy economy. But that campaign promise was never realistic. Biden is now learning the lessons of the 2022 energy crisis and acknowledging that the green energy transition is simply going to take a long time.

The Biden administration on March 13 approved ConocoPhillips’s Willow drilling project, which could eventually produce 180,000 barrels of oil per day during 30 years of operation. To appease his climate critics, Biden is limiting the amount of drilling on the site to the minimum amount that is economically viable, while also imposing new limits on drilling in other areas of Alaska.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-fi ... 29483.html

Even the burro (Biden) finally sees the light, but wait that is an insult to the humble burro. The point is that the "king of the walking dead" has finally realized that the green energy movement is full of hot air (or should we say stinky gas?). Could these guys surprise us and embrace nuclear power? Heaven forbid.

[Yodean]

@yoderpaul
Interesting to see Americans that have traveled or expat to other countries state how much better life is in other places when the primary reason is they can move to those countries with their American dollars and live like the wealthy in that country.

*****
Dude makes a good point.

*****

Well-constructed thread on America (for all the graphs and data, better to read on Twitter; I've cut and paste some of the text for those who don't want to go on Twitter):

https://twitter.com/girdley/status/1652285351107641344

First, the usual arguments for optimism about USA are:

• democracy
• the rule of law
• the US Dollar
• aircraft carriers (i.e., strongest military)
• immigration
• entrepreneurial culture
• and many more.

But there’s something more important than all those…

Geography.

A magical combination of geography favors the USA over all others.

It's no surprise the USA keeps winning.

The USA is the only economy to grow every decade for 150 years.


1) Mississippi River System

Largest naturally navigable waterway in the world by far.

You can sail from the Gulf of Mexico to Minnesota.

And transportation by water is 10x-30x cheaper.

So US goods get an unfair advantage.

Inland places like Pittsburg have clear ocean access!


2) Prime Farmland

The world's biggest contiguous Prime Farmland overlays our Mississippi River system.

An unbeatable 1-2 punch.

The USA can deliver more food cheaply to markets than any other.

The USA exports 2x more food than the #2 country, Germany.


3) Great Lakes

But wait, there's more.

The US has the largest freshwater lake system in the world.

They are now all connected to the Mississippi at Chicago.

And to the Atlantic.

Dozens of major inland US cities are virtual seaports!

US goods again get a permanent advantage.


4) Barrier Islands

The Mississippi connects with a unique Barrier Island system.

This creates a “virtual” coastal river with calm navigable water.

From Texas to Rhode Island by more low cost-water transport.

Again American goods get to market cheaper.


5) Size

The USA is the 4th largest country by Area.

Big enough to have scale on a global market.

China, Russia, and Canada are bigger.

The difference is the quality of the land.

Much of Canada, Russia, and China are unproductive.


6) Energy Reserves and Production

The USA is gifted with domestic energy resources.

Oil:

•#1 producer
•#11 in reserves

Natural Gas:

•#1 in producer
•#4 in reserves

... plus wind and solar.

Nearby and plentiful energy, American production is more effective (again)!


7) Natural Ports

America has top-tier natural harbors (and ports) on the world’s two largest oceans.

Like NYC, Chesapeake, Puget Sound, LA, and SF Bay.

And they’re well-connected by road/rail/water to industry.

This is huge, with 99% of int’l trade by volume done by ship.


8) Large Coastline

The coastline of the USA is 5x than that of Africa.

Part of this is because Africa has few inlets and large bays.

The USA also has 3x more coastline than Europe.

More coast also means controlling more ocean in your country’s exclusive economic zones.


9) Correct side of ocean currents

The currents rotate perfectly for the US.

US east coast gets warm, moist air from the tropics.

Great for timber and agriculture.

California croplands feed America with an ideal climate.

Despite San Diego being at the latitude of Egypt!


10) The North

Canada has bad geography if it wants to be a rival power.

Its cold climate means less productive agriculture.

Much of the country was wiped clean of topsoil by glaciers.

And few rivers.

Due to mountain ranges, provinces trade more with the US than each other.


11) The South

Mexico won't ever rival the US.

It has pockets of arable land in the middle.

Desert in the north. Jungles in the South.

And few good rivers or ports for transport.

Then it has mountains and valleys that make integration difficult as a whole country.


12) Oceans

Germany couldn't invade Britain across 15 miles of the English Channel in World War II.

The Pacific/Atlantic Oceans are massive >2,000 mile barriers against the USA ever worrying about an invasion.


13) Northern hemisphere

You want to be in the Northern half of the planet.

It has 2x the landmass of the southern hemisphere!

Bigger land mass means easier trade and competitiveness.

Even today, most people flying between S America and Africa must connect through the north.


14) East-West

Does it matter if your country is North-South or East-West?

You want your country (and continent) to be east-west.

Crop types, animals, and ideas do best in certain climates.

If you’re north-south, you must “jump” bands to spread.

Asia/N. America are winners.

---

My day job is small business and tech entrepreneur.

While I researched this heavily, there may be errors.

Even if I'm wrong on 1 or 2... I missed many more.

I know why I'm never betting against (or leaving) the USA.

We're just too OP from geography alone.

Michael Girdley
@girdley

And my favorite quote about this:

"Never bet against America."
-- Warren Buffet

*****

I'm prolly the last one to ever be accused of being an American apologist - been known to call the U.S. military-industrial complex the GWS on more than a few occasions - but I think it's always healthy to look at different sides of any important issue.

MAGA, baby!

Or not.

[AstuteShift]

Imho until the dollar gets replaced then the USA will still be top dog

Everything else is really speculative, China/Russia can plan all they want but if it’s not happening right now or it happens after 100 years or whatever then it doesn’t matter lol

And remember this, if all else fails they will take you to war. Let’s hope it does not happen, last thing we need is more death/carnage for pathetic leaders chess board games

[Yodean]

Everything else is really speculative, China/Russia can plan all they want but if it’s not happening right now or it happens after 100 years or whatever then it doesn’t matter lol

Yep ... the GWS is hard to beat. Recent rumours of KingUSD's imminent demise is largely overrated. As it is said, "follow the money."



Share of global transactions by currency denomination.

*****

[nicolas]

Well-constructed thread on America (for all the graphs and data, better to read on Twitter; I've cut and paste some of the text for those who don't want to go on Twitter):

He makes some great points regarding the geographical advantages of the US.

However, the question he attempts to answer in this thread is "What makes the US likely to remain the global superpower?".

He might very well be correct in his answer. But his starting point was:

I considered moving out of the USA.

A quite different, and much more complex question. The shift to a simpler and seemingly related question is a psychological process called "attribute substitution". We need these shortcuts, otherwise, we'd never be able to justify our most difficult decisions, the danger is we're generally unaware it's happening.

So, to really answer "Should I stay or should I go?" there's a lot more to consider than the relative economic strength of the country. And in the end, it's a purely emotional decision. The mind can conjure up a variety of reasons to justify the decision after the fact, but these reasons won't be the real "why" behind the decision.

Also, I think his inference that the US will remain the best country for opportunities because it will remain the hegemon is logically flawed. Especially since an opportunity has more to do with the rate of change than with the nominal value (not a fact, my opinion.)

And anyway, geography is not everything. It gives you better odds, but the people matter even more. What they believe and what they do with the land determines the outcome. Does the US have a strong enough immune system that it can flush out the parasites that took control of its institutions?