Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

[harryg]

With all this crazy bank news I decided to nibble at Key Corp. Might be a good play short or long term.

Yeh, besides the tech. growth sector, banks are gonna do well - the big ones. I've been selling puts on top of a shares position of BAC.

If you understand the implications of those two images/charts, then you will see that long-term, the Big Banksters are a solid bet for decent gains.

Funny, when I saw that Bank of America was down about 6% on the day & 20% on the month my first thought was to sell some puts as well.

Then luckily I remembered in time that I detest banks with a passion bordering on the insane.

Certainly big banks are less unsafe than smaller ones...

I think that Buffett has about 10% in Bank of America.


You will have probably heard this one:

Bank: an organisation which is always happy to lend you un umbrella - unless it is raining.

[bpcw]

Will CPLie come in lower than expected to give the Fed room to ease off on rate hikes, knowing more banks could go to the wall otherwise.

Don't be stupid, CPI is fact, you can't just make the figures to be whatever you want!

[SOL]

Will CPLie come in lower than expected to give the Fed room to ease off on rate hikes, knowing more banks could go to the wall otherwise.

Don't be stupid, CPI is fact, you can't just make the figures to be whatever you want!

You were on the money. CPI printed lower

[MarkD]

[Yodean]

With all this crazy bank news I decided to nibble at Key Corp. Might be a good play short or long term.

*****

Bro, be careful of Key Corp.

My3c (3 cents due to inflation): stick to the Big Four (JPM, BAC, Wells Fargo, Citi) ... some of the smaller banks will run into problems at some point.

This article is very good:

https://www.lynalden.com/march-2023-newsletter/

[Centeron631]

Re Himx instruction - is there a sell of all remainder by implication as how can one deploy what is left without selling?

The plan was to sell only half of the HIMX position, which we did and keep the remaining shares. The instructions posted below indicate pending orders to deploy two lots. The play is being moved into the main portfolio, and a new portfolio called the "bread and butter" portfolio is being introduced. The bread and butter portfolio is being introduced slowly since there is currently only one open position in the moderate to high-risk portfolio

Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX)
After selling half of our position, we were left with 0.375 or 3/8 of the initial position. Now, we plan to deploy this 0.375 portion in two separate lots. The first lot will be deployed in the range of 6.60 to 7.00, while the second lot will be deployed in the range of 5.70 to 6.00. If both orders are filled, we will still have ¼ of our funds available to further invest in this play Market Update March 7, 2023

This was stated under the moderate to high-risk portfolio

There's only one play in this portfolio, and it'll be moved into our main trend portfolio. Any future plays issued under this portfolio will come under the umbrella of the trend portfolio and will be appropriately colour-coded to identify the risks associated with each play. As such, this portfolio is going to be replaced with the one described below.


Did I understand your question correctly? However, if my interpretation is incorrect, would you kindly rephrase the question for me?

Sol seems i getting more confused. First what does the bread and butter have to do with my question on himx and surely the reason for introducing the Bread and butter is not because there is only one stock left in the moderate - high risk as u have stated. I was interpreting the BB as a new pf with a much more conservative approach than TI has used in previous pf's but with the ongoing problem of where to store all the remaining 2/3 of money and then 1/3 of money.

instruction forHimax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) is

After selling half of our position, we were left with 0.375 or 3/8 of the initial position. Now, we plan
to deploy this 0.375 portion in two separate lots. The first lot will be deployed in the range of 6.60
to 7.00, while the second lot will be deployed in the range of 5.70 to 6.00. If both orders are filled,
we will still have ¼ of our funds available to further invest in this play.

It appears the previous sale for half was for 3/8 which with 3/8 left implies that there is another or was another 2/8. So i guess it come down to r u saying to find the cash from the sale of the first 3/8 and use that total amount to buy a new position 1. and perhaps not spend all of it so have cash for new posiion 2. Or r u saying now sell the another 3/8 and use that part for new posion 1. and part for new position 2.

[bpcw]

Will CPLie come in lower than expected to give the Fed room to ease off on rate hikes, knowing more banks could go to the wall otherwise.

Don't be stupid, CPI is fact, you can't just make the figures to be whatever you want!

You were on the money. CPI printed lower

I'll let you know my charges soon!

Educated guesses at best!

[bpcw]

With all this crazy bank news I decided to nibble at Key Corp. Might be a good play short or long term.

*****

Bro, be careful of Key Corp.

My3c (3 cents due to inflation): stick to the Big Four (JPM, BAC, Wells Fargo, Citi) ... some of the smaller banks will run into problems at some point.

This article is very good:

https://www.lynalden.com/march-2023-newsletter/

I bought some Barclays this morning (UK time) before CPLie, hoping for a bounce, don't think the central banks are going to allow their buddies to go bankrupt!

[SOL]

Sol seems i getting more confused. First what does the bread and butter have to do with my question on himx and surely the reason for introducing the Bread and butter is not because there is only one stock left in the moderate - high risk as u have stated. I was interpreting the BB as a new pf with a much more conservative approach than TI has used in previous pf's but with the ongoing problem of where to store all the remaining 2/3 of money and then 1/3 of money.

instruction forHimax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) is

After selling half of our position, we were left with 0.375 or 3/8 of the initial position. Now, we plan
to deploy this 0.375 portion in two separate lots. The first lot will be deployed in the range of 6.60
to 7.00, while the second lot will be deployed in the range of 5.70 to 6.00. If both orders are filled,
we will still have ¼ of our funds available to further invest in this play.

It appears the previous sale for half was for 3/8 which with 3/8 left implies that there is another or was another 2/8. So i guess it come down to r u saying to find the cash from the sale of the first 3/8 and use that total amount to buy a new position 1. and perhaps not spend all of it so have cash for new posiion 2. Or r u saying now sell the another 3/8 and use that part for new posion 1. and part for new position 2.

So, we had 3/4 of a position in HIMX, and we sold half of that, which left us with 3/8 of a position. Now we're going to put that money back into HIMX via two orders, which if filled will bring us back to our original position of 3/4. But we will still have 1/4 of a lot to deploy at a later date. The above sales were mentioned in the Jan 30th update.

[bobdylan]

Apologies if I missed discussion somewhere, so please direct me to the right place if this is being discussed already. Do the recent bank failures impact the IAT ETF play at all?

[SOL]

Apologies if I missed discussion somewhere, so please direct me to the right place if this is being discussed already. Do the recent bank failures impact the IAT ETF play at all?

It is still in play; so far, most individuals should have deployed two lots (1/5th each). Fed is in a tight spot as this Admin removed a key component of their arsenal. Developing nations are actively looking to divest from the dollar after Russia's funds were confiscated. When the Fed stops raising rates, it will open pandora's box—more on that in future updates. But the dollar indicates that instead of a Multi-month top, it could be gearing up for a Multi-year top after the next upward move.

[bpcw]

Bullish sentiment pretty low, banks in crisis, and have we seen a bloodbath, nope!

Think we can expect a decent bounce from here soon!

[SOL]

Bullish sentiment pretty low, banks in crisis, and have we seen a bloodbath, nope!

Think we can expect a decent bounce from here soon!

Long-term bottom, not yet. Bounce: strong possibility

However, there is an unsettling odour permeating the market (Probably From Powell and Crew). It feels as though events have been unfolding a little too conveniently. Suddenly, the banks collapse, and Poor Powel faces a dilemma: raise rates or risk more businesses and banks going under. Me thinks this entire scenario was premeditated months ago.
I think another shockwave is needed, but after the markets have mounted a relatively robust rally.

[chippermon]

Bullish sentiment pretty low, banks in crisis, and have we seen a bloodbath, nope!

Think we can expect a decent bounce from here soon!

Long-term bottom, not yet. Bounce: strong possibility

However, there is an unsettling odour permeating the market (Probably From Powell and Crew). It feels as though events have been unfolding a little too conveniently. Suddenly, the banks collapse, and Poor Powel faces a dilemma: raise rates or risk more businesses and banks going under. Me thinks this entire scenario was premeditated months ago.
I think another shockwave is needed, but after the markets have mounted a relatively robust rally.

So LaGarde raises rates .25% in 5 minutes and JP leaves it flat next week. Boom. Equities risk on. Then, Oh! Too much. Add .5. I don't know. It's fun to guess the game though. It is a game

[bpcw]

Bullish sentiment pretty low, banks in crisis, and have we seen a bloodbath, nope!

Think we can expect a decent bounce from here soon!

Long-term bottom, not yet. Bounce: strong possibility

However, there is an unsettling odour permeating the market (Probably From Powell and Crew). It feels as though events have been unfolding a little too conveniently. Suddenly, the banks collapse, and Poor Powel faces a dilemma: raise rates or risk more businesses and banks going under. Me thinks this entire scenario was premeditated months ago.
I think another shockwave is needed, but after the markets have mounted a relatively robust rally.

So LaGarde raises rates .25% in 5 minutes and JP leaves it flat next week. Boom. Equities risk on. Then, Oh! Too much. Add .5. I don't know. It's fun to guess the game though. It is a game

Yes not thinking a long term bottom but a bounce around the levels you have suggested previously.

It is a game and as long as we're not putting our life savings on the line it is fun and I think we can learn from it.