Interim Market Update March 7, 2023

[SOL]

While followers might get perished. Dreamers die even faster. From reading the posts for the past 6 months. It appears that a lot of individuals are looking for an extra nipple. For that you might need to hire the services of Personal Financial advisor and lose a huge chunk of money for well crappy advice but hey you will get the extra nipple

Nobody is going to hold your hand even the ones that you pay a fortune to. The best strategy is to focus on the risk you can handle and then use that to develop your game plan

The change in format has made it far simpler to choose one's poison. There is the long term and the short term outlook. Being that I like a little bit of an adrenaline rush I try to play both but from experience and from what other members have stated. I use separate portfolios for each venture. In my short term portfolio i have been playing the long side and doing pretty, much to my amazement . In the long term I have been building cash.

Well said. It seems like right now buying the dips and getting out on the rise is the play.

Playing the short-term trend for the next few months, whether it's to the upside or downside, one theme will remain central: being nimble. Nimble (short term) players will win, while others will suffer losses. However, the outlook differs for the long term. Long-term players should wait for strong pullbacks and deploy their money in lots. In other words, nibble don't bite.

[SOL]

The stock market is telling you loud and clear: Now is not the time to fight the Fed or stand up to the bears.

The S&P 500 Index SPX, -1.85% hit resistance this week when an oversold rally failed near the 4080 level. This continues to support the idea that the index’s rise above 4100 in early February was a false upside breakout, and the onus is on the bulls to prove otherwise.

There was some optimism among stock investors early this week — until Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Tuesday, and once again the market did not like what he had to say. This is reminiscent of the 1973-74 bear market when then Fed Chair Arthur Burns was notorious for driving the stock market lower every time he spoke.

Back then, it was the specter of the “three I’s” hanging over the market — inflation, interest rates and impeachment (President Richard Nixon was in danger of being impeached over the events surrounding the Watergate scandal, although that never happened). Now it’s just “two I’s” — inflation and interest rates — but they are still in place, as Powell pointed out.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s ... eid=yhoof2

The analysis of the 1973-1974 period is likely accurate, where an aggressive Federal Reserve, war, and inflation (also known as MANFLATION) were present. However, when these dudes state its time to jump into the market, it's usually an indication to start planning for exits.

Although there's still a chance the markets could reach the previously mentioned targets, long-term subscribers and those in the low to medium-risk category had plenty of time to use market rallies to build up cash.

If someone wants to invest in both the long-term and short-term aspects of the market, it's a smart idea to do so in separate portfolios. Allocate smaller sums to the short-term, higher-risk portfolio and larger sums to the long-term portfolio to minimize potential losses.

This way, if the short-term portfolio suffers losses, the long-term portfolio can still remain intact, and the investor can benefit from market growth over time.

[Yodean]

*****

Stocks to the moon! Way past the space station.

We're bottoming this week, then it's a huge rally through the rest of March and most of April, then dip in late April and May, before resumption of bullish sideways consolidation.

Bears gonna get smashed, like little trans-bugs.

Scared money make no money ... it's 1967 all over again, plus the tech stuff ...

[Triplethought]

*****

Stocks to the moon! Way past the space station.

We're bottoming this week, then it's a huge rally through the rest of March and most of April, then dip in late April and May, before resumption of bullish sideways consolidation.

Bears gonna get smashed, like little trans-bugs.

Scared money make no money ... it's 1967 all over again, plus the tech stuff ...

Yodean, I respect your opinions. But I'm literally shaking my head that you posted this in the face of the Silicon Valley bank debacle. I just moved money in regional banks where I had >$250K of cash into other accounts to get FDIC protection. I also cancelled several buy orders. I think Monday is going to be a blood bath. Commercial Real Estate agents locally are freaking out at the lack of volume in both leasing and sales the last 2 weeks. I've suspended making any new hard money loans on real estate and I'm sure the banks will do the same. My consumer loans through prosper have 2x the amount of late payments this month as usual (Normally I have 3 people making late payments and I'm now at 6 people on a total of 237 loans so 2.5% late) I'm sure the Feds will TRY to calm everyone down by selling SVB but if you still are bullish given this development I think you are dreaming. The FED raised rates until something broke. SVB is the first harbinger of things breaking. I urge upon you a modicum of fear to protect your portfolio.

[bpcw]

*****

Stocks to the moon! Way past the space station.

We're bottoming this week, then it's a huge rally through the rest of March and most of April, then dip in late April and May, before resumption of bullish sideways consolidation.

Bears gonna get smashed, like little trans-bugs.

Scared money make no money ... it's 1967 all over again, plus the tech stuff ...

Yodean, I respect your opinions. But I'm literally shaking my head that you posted this in the face of the Silicon Valley bank debacle. I just moved money in regional banks where I had >$250K of cash into other accounts to get FDIC protection. I also cancelled several buy orders. I think Monday is going to be a blood bath. Commercial Real Estate agents locally are freaking out at the lack of volume in both leasing and sales the last 2 weeks. I've suspended making any new hard money loans on real estate and I'm sure the banks will do the same. My consumer loans through prosper have 2x the amount of late payments this month as usual (Normally I have 3 people making late payments and I'm now at 6 people on a total of 237 loans so 2.5% late) I'm sure the Feds will TRY to calm everyone down by selling SVB but if you still are bullish given this development I think you are dreaming. The FED raised rates until something broke. SVB is the first harbinger of things breaking. I urge upon you a modicum of fear to protect your portfolio.

We may get selling pressure due to SVB and fear of contagion but if the Fed does signal it will intervene and pivot then the markets could then sore. Remember the covid crash/correction ended in March when the impact of it had only just started. Bullish sentiment is already pretty low so might not be too much that added fear can do to drop the market considerably further but conversely a bit of good news could power it much higher. The Fed may signal it's intention to do all that is necessary to support the banking sector, we get a decent bounce then in a few weeks the Fed goes hawkish again for the final down leg. Just throwing out ideas!

[jonnyfrank]

Sol.....how about some commentary? No need to make recommendations, just some insight into Friday through market action today.

As for me, I become more convinced everyday that I died and am in a sort of purgatory, where up is down and down is up. Banks collapsing, trading halted, yet here we are with the DOW up 300 points. I kind of get the idea that this may force the FED to put the brakes on rate hikes for a bit, and the markets embrace that idea, but overall these events are not good. Thoughts?

[AstuteShift]

Sol.....how about some commentary? No need to make recommendations, just some insight into Friday through market action today.

As for me, I become more convinced everyday that I died and am in a sort of purgatory, where up is down and down is up. Banks collapsing, trading halted, yet here we are with the DOW up 300 points. I kind of get the idea that this may force the FED to put the brakes on rate hikes for a bit, and the markets embrace that idea, but overall these events are not good. Thoughts?

All part of the course, SOL did say the markets will experience downward pressure in March and here it is

[jonnyfrank]

True, but I am looking for some commentary specific to the bank events.

[Centeron631]

Re Himx instruction - is there a sell of all remainder by implication as how can one deploy what is left without selling?

[SOL]

Sol.....how about some commentary? No need to make recommendations, just some insight into Friday through market action today.

As for me, I become more convinced everyday that I died and am in a sort of purgatory, where up is down and down is up. Banks collapsing, trading halted, yet here we are with the DOW up 300 points. I kind of get the idea that this may force the FED to put the brakes on rate hikes for a bit, and the markets embrace that idea, but overall these events are not good. Thoughts?

Trying to predict the daily movements of the markets is often a waste of energy. Without putting in excessive effort, the chances of success are typically less than 30%. Even with a lot of effort and doing everything right, the success rate may only reach 55-60% at best, and even then the negative impact on one's health isn't worth the potential market gains.


Having said that, lets look at what has happened

TLT traded as low as 98.88, achieving the stated objective. It will likely rally to the 104.50 to 105.30 ranges (former support turned to resistance) before trending lower. A test of 93 is still a possibility

. Market update March 7, 2023

Investors have flocked to safe-haven bonds, causing TLT to surpass our targets. Most indices, especially the previously strong NDX, have broken through key support levels and are likely to experience relief rallies that will ultimately fail.

Ultimately most indices are projected to test their 2022 lows before mounting new multi-month rallies. One or two indices could potentially trade below their 2022 lows. Our earlier forecast called for a market top in March, which has been realized.

Precious metals have performed well, with SLV trading within our suggested range (with a low of 18.38) and up approximately 10%. We had previously indicated that they had bottomed and recommended investing in them for several weeks.

Our current strategy is to wait for good entry points. However, we might issue only a few unofficial short trades for risk-takers. While the outlook could change, big moves would be needed. For example, the NDX closes above 12300 daily but ideally on a weekly basis.

Longer term, we still expect the markets to head lower before the next multi-month bottom is in place. We spoke of these developments for months under the long-term views category.

[SOL]

Re Himx instruction - is there a sell of all remainder by implication as how can one deploy what is left without selling?

The plan was to sell only half of the HIMX position, which we did and keep the remaining shares. The instructions posted below indicate pending orders to deploy two lots. The play is being moved into the main portfolio, and a new portfolio called the "bread and butter" portfolio is being introduced. The bread and butter portfolio is being introduced slowly since there is currently only one open position in the moderate to high-risk portfolio

Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX)
After selling half of our position, we were left with 0.375 or 3/8 of the initial position. Now, we plan to deploy this 0.375 portion in two separate lots. The first lot will be deployed in the range of 6.60 to 7.00, while the second lot will be deployed in the range of 5.70 to 6.00. If both orders are filled, we will still have ¼ of our funds available to further invest in this play Market Update March 7, 2023

This was stated under the moderate to high-risk portfolio

There's only one play in this portfolio, and it'll be moved into our main trend portfolio. Any future plays issued under this portfolio will come under the umbrella of the trend portfolio and will be appropriately colour-coded to identify the risks associated with each play. As such, this portfolio is going to be replaced with the one described below.


Did I understand your question correctly? However, if my interpretation is incorrect, would you kindly rephrase the question for me?

[djanderle]

With all this crazy bank news I decided to nibble at Key Corp. Might be a good play short or long term.

[Yodean]

With all this crazy bank news I decided to nibble at Key Corp. Might be a good play short or long term.

Yeh, besides the tech. growth sector, banks are gonna do well - the big ones. I've been selling puts on top of a shares position of BAC.



*****



*****

If you understand the implications of those two images/charts, then you will see that long-term, the Big Banksters are a solid bet for decent gains.

[chippermon]

With all this crazy bank news I decided to nibble at Key Corp. Might be a good play short or long term.

Yeh, besides the tech. growth sector, banks are gonna do well - the big ones. I've been selling puts on top of a shares position of BAC.



*****



*****

If you understand the implications of those two images/charts, then you will see that long-term, the Big Banksters are a solid bet for decent gains.

Oh Man. Yodean, that's a brilliant post. Too funny. Or scary for some. I think I'll go read the Wizard of Oz now.

[bpcw]

With all this crazy bank news I decided to nibble at Key Corp. Might be a good play short or long term.

Yeh, besides the tech. growth sector, banks are gonna do well - the big ones. I've been selling puts on top of a shares position of BAC.



*****
*****

If you understand the implications of those two images/charts, then you will see that long-term, the Big Banksters are a solid bet for decent gains.

I used to play monopoly with my brothers as a kid, my older brother of several years was always the banker and always won, he admitted years later that he cheated, typical banker's!