have there ever been crashes that don't crescendo?

[MarkD]

I suggest you read up on the 98 correction and Long Term Capital Management. Another instance when the FED bailed out their buddies.

[harryg]

It irritates me that I can't find it, but the Long Johns did a skit on LTCM where they actually read out on TV one of the arbitrage formulae that LTCM used.

John 1: " Well what was wrong with the formula?"

John 2: "It was b*ll*cks."

When they got to about 4 billion of losses, they were deemed too big to fail and were "bailed out".

That of course set the scene for investment companies taking on more & more risk in the knowledge of a probable safety net. 2008 anyone?

Points of interest (?)

• It was a Russian debt default that really started off their decline

• One of the peeps behind LTCM was Myron Scholes of Black & Scholes option formula fame

[Yodean]

*****

likely a good contrarian sentiment indicator ... stocks to the moon!

[Yodean]

Another reason I am overall bullish for "risk on" assets for the 1st half of '23 at least is that we have a bit of a "pattern" playing out that is somewhat of the reverse of late Q4 '21 or early Q1 '22.

In late '21 and early '22, a lot of individual stocks were getting crushed, but indices were still trending sideways or up a bit, and sentiment was overall bullish around that time.

We all know what happened after - more stocks got crushed, and indices followed suit. A pretty devastating bear market.

Now, the opposite is playing out - equity markets have overall been trending higher, yet mainstream mass sentiment overall continues to be quite bearish.

If this Mirror Image Pattern continues, '23 may turn out to be quite a bullish year, at least initially.

[Yodean]

****

[Triplethought]

thank u guys

second concern:

where would you put money you currently can't invest . . . . in order to resist inflation

inflation-resistant securities or commodities ....

gold . . . bonds . . . crypto . . . etc

curious on the TI communities favorites here

1) high interest savings 3.5% w online banks or CDs see below
2) Treasuries (2 year) 4.5% (can sell at a discount if needed before 2 years) Take advantage of inverted yield curve.
3) ibonds 7% (changes every 6 months) money tied up 1 year plus 3 months lost interest if you sell. pain in the ass to buy on treasurydirect.gov but worth it.
4) keep it in cash (0%)
5) Prosper.com (I'm earning 6% but definitely taking some risk and my money tied up 2 or 3 years depending on loan.) So this one isn't a strategy for waiting to buy equities.
6) hard money loans if you have at least 500K (I'm earning 9%) Money tied up typically 18 months before balloon is due. You may be able to start with less (I know a mortgage fund that's starting up paying interest of 7%)
7) search for dividend stocks (old school stuff like energy or cigarette companies) but these can crash too.

Several savings accounts out there with online banks at 3.4-3.5%. google best savings account rates or see link below. If you think the crash will be in some months (rather than years) you can park your cash in one of these savings accounts for now. You can do corporate bonds or 2 year Treasuries (government backed) at 4.47% but as we've seen this year the possibility does exist to lose equity (unless you decide to hold them for the whole 2 years). Presumably if you decide to sell the 2 year treasuries early and lose a little face value it's because you think the money will do better in equities (FOBO or MOBO). So professional money managers are buying 2 year treasuries with the cash (not that they know any better than we do).

I bought about 9 $10K ibonds using different entities (businesses and trusts). They pay inflation for interest to keep you at par). that's money I probably will sit on for 5 years. However now that I've owned them for 1 year, I only lose 3 months interest if I want to sell them to buy into a FOBO or MOBO.

https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/rates/

In my opinion commodities are as risky as equities if not more so. I laugh at all the ads on the radio saying keep your money safe by buying gold. Could work. But probably won't.

[Triplethought]

*****

likely a good contrarian sentiment indicator ... stocks to the moon!

Do not continue to fight the FED my friend. They will beat you in the end. Stay careful out there.

[jlhooter]

Sychrony High Yield savings is 3.75% APY (3.69% APR). You can move money in and out <6x per month. No penalties.

[Tobeornot]

Sychrony High Yield savings is 3.75% APY (3.69% APR). You can move money in and out <6x per month. No penalties.

Even at 6% its below the real inflation rate. I make more selling puts on stocks I want to own but whenever I can I trade them. I sell then buy them back at lower rate. I keep repeating until I am assigned, then i start selling covered calls.

[Yodean]

Do not continue to fight the FED my friend. They will beat you in the end. Stay careful out there.

You need to deeply consider what it means to "fight the Fed." Right now, it doesn't mean what it did last year.

'Sides, Jesus > Fed.

Remember, you were responsible for 33.3% of the Jesus Buy Signal triggered last October. Still holding up extremely well.

[bpcw]

Do not continue to fight the FED my friend. They will beat you in the end. Stay careful out there.

You need to deeply consider what it means to "fight the Fed." Right now, it doesn't mean what it did last year.

'Sides, Jesus > Fed.

Remember, you were responsible for 33.3% of the Jesus Buy Signal triggered last October. Still holding up extremely well.

I think that's the key, working out what they're up to, then don't fight it!

The narrative has been interest rates will continue to rise until we completely beat inflation but they can turn that
narrative on a dime, and the narrative could become, we're not bothered about inflation anymore so interest rates might start coming down, then you can be caught with your pants down, especially if you're shorting the markets!

[Yodean]

*****

At some point this money will start flowing back into the equity markets, I would think.

[SOL]

Money managers have made a significant adjustment to their investment strategy, as they have reduced their bearish bets by a substantial amount of 300 billion. Possibly suggesting they are turning bullish

[Yodean]

https://twitter.com/NarcissusNinja/stat ... 5223853058

*****

Cramer's top 10 is out ... $ALGN $CCL $CTLT $META $NCLH $NVDA $RCL $SIVB $TSLA $WBD - Jim Cramer says he's intrigued by these 10 top performing S&P 500 stocks.

One potential strategy is to short those ten stocks and hold an equivalent or larger long in the S&P. You've likely got a pretty good hedged long position overall.

Nfa! Lolol.

I'll be looking to sell a bit of Meta, Tsla, and Nvda on decent rally days. Or let them get called off the Wheel.

[chippermon]

https://twitter.com/NarcissusNinja/stat ... 5223853058

*****

Cramer's top 10 is out ... $ALGN $CCL $CTLT $META $NCLH $NVDA $RCL $SIVB $TSLA $WBD - Jim Cramer says he's intrigued by these 10 top performing S&P 500 stocks.

One potential strategy is to short those ten stocks and hold an equivalent or larger long in the S&P. You've likely got a pretty good hedged long position overall.

Nfa! Lolol.

I'll be looking to sell a bit of Meta, Tsla, and Nvda on decent rally days. Or let them get called off the Wheel.

HA! Too funny. This makes me happy since I am short two of those. Stupid Cramer. Long some VIX just in case too