Socialism and communism

[MarkD]

I quit following a slew of sentiment indicators after subscribing as TI was fairly accurate at the big swings. Stockcharts.com lists several like the wall street bulls bears, option sentiment, up/down volume, and there's also the TDAm investor index, which has been unusually accurate during this last year (odd because it's usually not that good). They were early but correct in reducing exposure beginning in 2021.

https://imgur.com/QTIM9T4

https://imgur.com/C78kTXe

And here's one of a few new ETFs which supposedly track sentiment, these have a limited track record (a couple I used to follow closed).

https://imgur.com/DhlTdQB

And another one which may be signaling what Sol has noted, consolidation for longer.

https://imgur.com/UYhAmbd

An update of the bond A/D line - the inverse could be happening which occurred in when it began breaking down in October 2021. Volume is increasing as the A/D goes up.

https://imgur.com/dcglikD

And price behaviour of the CORP corporate bond ETF. Lots of volume at the lows. Somebody knows something.

https://imgur.com/2UYakbD

[Yodean]

There must be other ways to find out what other players are doing. Actual sentiment.

There are many ways, some quite indirect and funny-sounding initially, but they often work fairly well.

You can use certain individuals - they don't have to be famous - and not based just what they think about the markets, but more indirectly, like how they express their moods, etc.

For example, you can use me (or yourself, if you record your actions in some sort of journal) - I tend to use the words "Sheep" and "perish" in my rants here near interim market bottoms.

And of course, I previously described how my JBS was triggered by YoungAnakin and Centdude last October - extremely reliable, I am guessing. For once, me gonna do what Jesus sez.

If you look at when the TrendBlazer and AITT were initiated as publications, they _roughly_ correspond to when smallcap tech was topping out, etc.

Also, I regularly check the number of subs on this board - it's making higher lows, after a significant drop. The more bullish the crowd is, the more members bull market services like the TIT tend to have.

Journaling is useful. I also like to combine sentiment and technical action with cot data in unusual ways.

[SOL]

One does not need to rely on sentiment data per se. We could have just relied on our indicators which incorporate aspects of MP, but there is a flaw. The flaw is that you miss out on the tail-end move, which is usually very powerful. Every 10-14 years, it fails to occur, but by playing safe, one can miss out on a lot of potential gains. If we had done this last year, it would have worked out perfectly, but it would not have worked out so well during other times. The safe bet is to focus on the indicator and then have the patience to wait it out. most don't when things look good, they become very bold, and vice versa.

Take a look at the monthly chart of the Nasdaq.



The red arrows indicate when getting out would not have worked; in other words, the tail-end effect was in play. The green arrows indicate when it would have made sense to bail out when the markets were trading in the extremely overbought ranges. Even then, the markets don't always pull back immediately. When the markets were trading in the extreme to insanely overbought ranges in 2007 after the 1st sell signal, one had to wait almost one year before it kicked in. In 15-plus years it worked well only once, and that was in 2022.

For low to medium-risk players, the above signal works if applied in this manner. Close most of your longs when the modified MACDs and RSI are trading in the extremely overbought ranges and then open new longs when they pull back to the extremely oversold ranges. However, this requires patience and discipline.

We adopted a new format in 2022, so when we reach those overbought zones, low to medium-risk players will be told to bail out or close most of their longs and wait. If you look at the above chart, the accuracy of this strategy is high, but it comes with a cost; one sacrifices profits, in some cases large amounts, for the benefit of safety.

Measures of sentiment (bullish, bearish and Neutral) help fine-tune entry and exit points.

[MarkD]

Update of the Corporate Bond A/D

https://ibb.co/W3yFdJm

And CORP

https://ibb.co/FDsNGDY