Socialism and communism

[jonnyfrank]

Socialism and communism are not the friend of the stock market.

Give us something to be "bullish" about for the next 3-6 months. The missiles flying in from the west onto Belarus, perhaps? The US wants a war, and this is worrisome because this administration will stop at nothing to shut down the economy again.

[SOL]

Socialism and communism are not the friend of the stock market.

Give us something to be "bullish" about for the next 3-6 months. The missiles flying in from the west onto Belarus, perhaps? The US wants a war, and this is worrisome because this administration will stop at nothing to shut down the economy again.

One thing to remember is disasters are the harbinger of good fortune for the informed. Remember COVID it was terrible but suddenly the outlook changed. In 2022 when things looked Good the administration found a way to screw things but now things look bad so something else that might appear to look bad will start but it will be good for the markets. As for War, you need the industrial capacity to start a real war, so far the US has fought goat herders. We don't have the capacity for a long-sustained war. Attacking Belarus will draw Russia in and their economy is now optimized for war

[jonnyfrank]

SOL,

I agree with what you are saying but the board has been stuck in the long term bullish mode for a year now. There has been a 33% drop in the NAS and while I agree the band will spring upward when it does indeed spring, but in the meantime, people need to embrace the idea that ST trades on the short side can yield profits.

Today is yet another AM bloodbath. I want to see everyone at least consider the short side since it appears we have more downside to go. It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

[Yodean]

Today is yet another AM bloodbath. I want to see everyone at least consider the short side since it appears we have more downside to go. It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

my2c: shorting in the current context is akin to picking up pennies in front of an incoming truck.

Stealth accumulation is the name of the game here. Remember, Jesus told me to buy stocks in late q4 '22.

'23 is gonna be gr8 for the bulls!

*****



*****

1966 = 2022 ... interesting analogue (caveat: i am not a fan of analogues): In 1966 $SPX fell 22% starting January, bottoming in Oct. just like 2022.

Fed hiked rates continuously as inflation soared w/ war raging in Vietnam and a midterm election in 1966, somewhat similar to 2022.

After gaining 6% in Q4 '66, stocks soared 24% in 1967 - SPX gained 7% in Q4 2022 ... '23 tbd ...

[Budge]

Today is yet another AM bloodbath. I want to see everyone at least consider the short side since it appears we have more downside to go. It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

my2c: shorting in the current context is akin to picking up pennies in front of an incoming truck.

Stealth accumulation is the name of the game here. Remember, Jesus told me to buy stocks in late q4 '22.

'23 is gonna be gr8 for the bulls!

*****



*****

1966 = 2022 ... interesting analogue (caveat: i am not a fan of analogues): In 1966 $SPX fell 22% starting January, bottoming in Oct. just like 2022.

Fed hiked rates continuously as inflation soared w/ war raging in Vietnam and a midterm election in 1966, somewhat similar to 2022.

After gaining 6% in Q4 '66, stocks soared 24% in 1967 - SPX gained 7% in Q4 2022 ... '23 tbd ...

Agreed. With all the doom and gloom that's about, the contrary opinion will prevail. If war is confined to Europe (or anywhere apart from here) money will flow to the US markets especially if the $ marches higher.

Fortunes are made from war. War is big business. The US defence policy is founded on greed (and, in the case of the neocons pulling the strings, revenge) therefore the mad fuckers in US are desperate to start another war (hopefully by proxy but they're pushing their luck). Unfortunately, this time they're not picking on a bunch of rag heads but Cui bono?

Have a look at slice of corporate advertizing during WWI:

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30115533

And who is pulling in the big bucks today:

https://www.nbcnews.com/businessmain/10 ... war-330249

As for accusing folks here of being in denial, common man! That's beneath you. You want to short the markets, study, then do it and report back and we'll all applaud.

[bpcw]

SOL,

I agree with what you are saying but the board has been stuck in the long term bullish mode for a year now. There has been a 33% drop in the NAS and while I agree the band will spring upward when it does indeed spring, but in the meantime, people need to embrace the idea that ST trades on the short side can yield profits.

Today is yet another AM bloodbath. I want to see everyone at least consider the short side since it appears we have more downside to go. It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

The time for this argument was late 2021 to early 2022, not when we're already down so much on the Nasdaq. You call today a bloodbath down at present 1%, hardly fits the description.

The Nasdaq went up 2.5 x from the covid low to it's ath, tqqq went up 6 fold. Sqqq went down 84% between early March and early August of 2020, that's a bloodbath!

A question for you, when are you going to go long, and how far down do you predict this market? Believe me if the Nasdaq went down 90% most people would say it's go down further and refuse to go long.

[jonnyfrank]

SOL,

I agree with what you are saying but the board has been stuck in the long term bullish mode for a year now. There has been a 33% drop in the NAS and while I agree the band will spring upward when it does indeed spring, but in the meantime, people need to embrace the idea that ST trades on the short side can yield profits.

Today is yet another AM bloodbath. I want to see everyone at least consider the short side since it appears we have more downside to go. It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

The time for this argument was late 2021 to early 2022, not when we're already down so much on the Nasdaq. You call today a bloodbath down at present 1%, hardly fits the description.

The Nasdaq went up 2.5 x from the covid low to it's ath, tqqq went up 6 fold. Sqqq went down 84% between early March and early August of 2020, that's a bloodbath!

A question for you, when are you going to go long, and how far down do you predict this market? Believe me if the Nasdaq went down 90% most people would say it's go down further and refuse to go long.

I have been advertising my shorting for a while now. It has been met with mostly mockery. As for the term "bloodbath", it is in the context of ST, which I also know is out of favor in these boards. My posts are meant to provoke thought. As for predictions, I take the shorting opportunities as they present themselves. While the markets seem due to for ride back up, I think that too will present yet another shorting opportunity. I have made some money pecking at the shorting opportunities. If Powell talks soon after "good news", short before he speaks!!!! That has proven to be a winning fundamental strategy lately. Over the LT, the reconstruction of Ukraine will be a profit maker for US contractors much like the aftermath of the Iraqi war was for Cheney and Halliburton. For the time being, destruction is the focus, and with missiles come the opportunity for more shorting opportunities. The PTB have shown themselves and they don't care that everyone is watching. With that arrogance comes more economic destruction, and just like they can make money off of destruction they can all make money off of the stock market tanking. Just keep an open mind to shorting with some of your cash when the opportunity presents itself. That is all I am preaching.

[bpcw]

SOL,

I agree with what you are saying but the board has been stuck in the long term bullish mode for a year now. There has been a 33% drop in the NAS and while I agree the band will spring upward when it does indeed spring, but in the meantime, people need to embrace the idea that ST trades on the short side can yield profits.

Today is yet another AM bloodbath. I want to see everyone at least consider the short side since it appears we have more downside to go. It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

The time for this argument was late 2021 to early 2022, not when we're already down so much on the Nasdaq. You call today a bloodbath down at present 1%, hardly fits the description.

The Nasdaq went up 2.5 x from the covid low to it's ath, tqqq went up 6 fold. Sqqq went down 84% between early March and early August of 2020, that's a bloodbath!

A question for you, when are you going to go long, and how far down do you predict this market? Believe me if the Nasdaq went down 90% most people would say it's go down further and refuse to go long.

I have been advertising my shorting for a while now. It has been met with mostly mockery. As for the term "bloodbath", it is in the context of ST, which I also know is out of favor in these boards. My posts are meant to provoke thought. As for predictions, I take the shorting opportunities as they present themselves. While the markets seem due to for ride back up, I think that too will present yet another shorting opportunity. I have made some money pecking at the shorting opportunities. If Powell talks soon after "good news", short before he speaks!!!! That has proven to be a winning fundamental strategy lately. Over the LT, the reconstruction of Ukraine will be a profit maker for US contractors much like the aftermath of the Iraqi war was for Cheney and Halliburton. For the time being, destruction is the focus, and with missiles come the opportunity for more shorting opportunities. The PTB have shown themselves and they don't care that everyone is watching. With that arrogance comes more economic destruction, and just like they can make money off of destruction they can all make money off of the stock market tanking. Just keep an open mind to shorting with some of your cash when the opportunity presents itself. That is all I am preaching.

I've made money shorting commodities before and lost some too, there are always opportunities in shorting. I don't think we're saying you can't make money in it, it's just that your time is always limited and at the snap of a finger the markets can turn to the upside and never return, inflation is against you for one. It's only for the nimble and there is a danger in becoming entrenched in your thinking that there is always another reason for the markets to go lower and so you miss most of the swing upwards when it arrives, the ptb know this psychological condition and use it to fleece the shorters. For me the best strategy is when the masses are extremely bullish and the markets start rolling over and have formed a topping pattern, once you've made a bit and the sentiment turns quite bearish then you need to start buying stocks in lots. To start shorting now is playing with fire, you might get lucky but more likely you'll get burned.

You've made some money shorting, ridden your luck, well done now time to accumulate great stocks and massive discounts!

[Tobeornot]

SOL,

I agree with what you are saying but the board has been stuck in the long term bullish mode for a year now. There has been a 33% drop in the NAS and while I agree the band will spring upward when it does indeed spring, but in the meantime, people need to embrace the idea that ST trades on the short side can yield profits.

Today is yet another AM bloodbath. I want to see everyone at least consider the short side since it appears we have more downside to go. It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

1 Year is not long term, mid term would probably be a better qualifier. Think back 2008-2009 that was a very long brutal correction and things worked out fine for the disciplined trader.Are you looking for others to back your bearish position? otherwise it should not matter what I or anyone else thinks if you think you have a trade that has a high probability of winning. Most of us here are not in denial; the opposite probably applies. We have been through this in 2008-2009, some of us the 1987 crash and maybe a few went through the 73-74 correction. In all instances, those that panicked lost over the long term

Look at SQQQ its still in the shit hole after the beating it took during the Covid rally. As for TQQQ it has the potential to recoup all its loses and possibly a lot more as over the long run markets trend upwards.

As Budge stated albeit more bluntly, go for it if you think you can win. I for one am not going to short a market when the monthly charts are trading in the very oversold zone. At this point based on history shorting the market is pure madness. Follow Ninjajedi Yodean, he is accumulating gems.

I want to see everyone at least consider the short side since it appears we have more downside to go. It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

Why would you want this. I take this is a very powerful contrarian signal as more and more individuals in other forums are thinking along the same lines. If you are sure why do you need anyone to back you. I think I will start to nibble at some of my picks a bit earlier than planned

Btw congrats on the profits you banked shorting. Be careful as BPCW pointed out things can change in a heartbeat and all those profits could melt

[MarkD]

Nothing wrong with shorting. I personally have avoided but use cash accumulation and maybe bonds when I believe markets are frothy. It is a great way to make money IF you are good at it. Congrats!

[Yodean]

It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

I lost a massive amount (on paper) last year because I was in denial that it was a real bear market, between q1 and q3 of '22. Your point isn't lost on me.

I was counting on the various sentiment measures to tell me when the top was in - i.e. I was going to sell when euphoria was reflected in the various sentiment indices.

That never came before the crash - basically, I bet too much on that sentiment stuff. I still use that sh*t, but have refined its use and incorporated cot data into their interpretation.

It's funny - when I was investing part-time between 2004 and 2019, I knew much less about the markets than I did in 2022, but because I knew I didn't know that much in those earlier years, I placed a much higher premium on asset allocation and risk management, and on balance, I did fairly well, for a retail investor.

2022 was by far my worst year evah in the markets, both in nominal and percentage terms. I did a forensic audit of my trades last year (important to keep that trading journal), and my single biggest mistake was trusting the sentiment stuff too much, and throwing out my previous asset allocation and risk management strategies.

With that said, I think the sentiment stuff works a bit better near market bottoms, especially when combined with cot data, as well as an understanding of capital flows, including reverse repo.

I see the October lows as being quite important - if they are broken definitively to the downside and confirm below, and the dollar breaks 120 and confirms above, I'll throw out my bullish base case.

A key stock looks like it has confirmed its recent bottom of 82 or so (Google).

Mostly, I am bullish cuz my JBS (Jesus Buy Signal) was triggered last Oct./November.

Don't wanna go against the Big Guy ...

[jonnyfrank]

It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

I lost a massive amount (on paper) last year because I was in denial that it was a real bear market, between q1 and q3 of '22. Your point isn't lost on me.

I was counting on the various sentiment measures to tell me when the top was in - i.e. I was going to sell when euphoria was reflected in the various sentiment indices.

That never came before the crash - basically, I bet too much on that sentiment stuff. I still use that sh*t, but have refined its use and incorporated cot data into their interpretation.

It's funny - when I was investing part-time between 2004 and 2019, I knew much less about the markets than I did in 2022, but because I knew I didn't know that much in those earlier years, I placed a much higher premium on asset allocation and risk management, and on balance, I did fairly well, for a retail investor.

2022 was by far my worst year evah in the markets, both in nominal and percentage terms. I did a forensic audit of my trades last year (important to keep that trading journal), and my single biggest mistake was trusting the sentiment stuff too much, and throwing out my previous asset allocation and risk management strategies.

With that said, I think the sentiment stuff works a bit better near market bottoms, especially when combined with cot data, as well as an understanding of capital flows, including reverse repo.

I see the October lows as being quite important - if they are broken definitively to the downside and confirm below, and the dollar breaks 120 and confirms above, I'll throw out my bullish base case.

A key stock looks like it has confirmed its recent bottom of 82 or so (Google).

Mostly, I am bullish cuz my JBS (Jesus Buy Signal) was triggered last Oct./November.

Don't wanna go against the Big Guy ...

That is very well put. I wish I had bet against the Santa Claus rally this year more aggressively. I am a fan of asset allocation as well but this year was rough for that portfolio due to the bond market being rather sluggish. We all did pretty well here post COVID, but there is a time and place for some side strategies and I simply thing shorting can work for a while as an opportunity. For example, the semi stocks (SOXS and SOXL) have done well for me over the last month or two, and I will continue to play them.

[bpcw]

It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

I lost a massive amount (on paper) last year because I was in denial that it was a real bear market, between q1 and q3 of '22. Your point isn't lost on me.

I was counting on the various sentiment measures to tell me when the top was in - i.e. I was going to sell when euphoria was reflected in the various sentiment indices.

That never came before the crash - basically, I bet too much on that sentiment stuff. I still use that sh*t, but have refined its use and incorporated cot data into their interpretation.

It's funny - when I was investing part-time between 2004 and 2019, I knew much less about the markets than I did in 2022, but because I knew I didn't know that much in those earlier years, I placed a much higher premium on asset allocation and risk management, and on balance, I did fairly well, for a retail investor.

2022 was by far my worst year evah in the markets, both in nominal and percentage terms. I did a forensic audit of my trades last year (important to keep that trading journal), and my single biggest mistake was trusting the sentiment stuff too much, and throwing out my previous asset allocation and risk management strategies.

With that said, I think the sentiment stuff works a bit better near market bottoms, especially when combined with cot data, as well as an understanding of capital flows, including reverse repo.

I see the October lows as being quite important - if they are broken definitively to the downside and confirm below, and the dollar breaks 120 and confirms above, I'll throw out my bullish base case.

A key stock looks like it has confirmed its recent bottom of 82 or so (Google).

Mostly, I am bullish cuz my JBS (Jesus Buy Signal) was triggered last Oct./November.

Don't wanna go against the Big Guy ...

You make a very good point re. the sentiment stuff, this screwed me up too!

However, is it that sentiment doesn't work, did in the past but now doesn't any longer or that the primary measure that we used, namely AAII data is manipulated because so many were using it?

Sentiment is a measure of MP so surely if we have accurate data it is massively significant, how else are the PTB going to screw over the masses but to sell when the majority are buying and buy when the majority are selling or refuse to buy?

What do others think?

[SOL]

You make a very good point re. the sentiment stuff, this screwed me up too!

However, is it that sentiment doesn't work, did in the past but now doesn't any longer or that the primary measure that we used, namely AAII data is manipulated because so many were using it?

Sentiment is a measure of MP so surely if we have accurate data it is massively significant, how else are the PTB going to screw over the masses but to sell when the majority are buying and buy when the majority are selling or refuse to buy?

What do others think?

We have never seen sentiment in such a strange zone. Despite massive sell-offs, there is no corresponding spike in Bearish sentiment, and despite strong rallies, there is minimal movement in bullish sentiment. Bear in mind that this is the first time in decades that bullish sentiment has traded below its historical average for over 12 months in a row. So there are two things going on here. It is not too hard to manipulate AAII sentiment if you have the funds; one could easily inject 1000 plus fake accounts and manipulate that data. However, we use various sources for our data, so something bigger is going on. Eric alluded to this; it seems people are down after being locked up for so long (COVID), and then this sudden surge in inflationary forces and then a wild stock market. Because they are locked in what one might term a depression-type mode, they are not doing much on either side, hence the limited movement on both measures of sentiment.

Now the other thing to keep in mind is whenever something deviates from the norm, there is always a reversion to the mean. When things will revert to normal, but because individuals have now come to accept the new norm, it will take X times longer to revert to their old modes. In other words, by pushing individuals into this state, the next bull market (which will be very volatile initially) will last 2-3x longer than previous bulls.

At the end of the day, these guys want to make money, and that is all that matters to them. The only difference is they have boatloads of money, so they can sit and accumulate stocks for months on end while creating the impression that everything is going to hell.

[chippermon]

It is tough watching everyone in denial here.

I lost a massive amount (on paper) last year because I was in denial that it was a real bear market, between q1 and q3 of '22. Your point isn't lost on me.

I was counting on the various sentiment measures to tell me when the top was in - i.e. I was going to sell when euphoria was reflected in the various sentiment indices.

That never came before the crash - basically, I bet too much on that sentiment stuff. I still use that sh*t, but have refined its use and incorporated cot data into their interpretation.

It's funny - when I was investing part-time between 2004 and 2019, I knew much less about the markets than I did in 2022, but because I knew I didn't know that much in those earlier years, I placed a much higher premium on asset allocation and risk management, and on balance, I did fairly well, for a retail investor.

2022 was by far my worst year evah in the markets, both in nominal and percentage terms. I did a forensic audit of my trades last year (important to keep that trading journal), and my single biggest mistake was trusting the sentiment stuff too much, and throwing out my previous asset allocation and risk management strategies.

With that said, I think the sentiment stuff works a bit better near market bottoms, especially when combined with cot data, as well as an understanding of capital flows, including reverse repo.

I see the October lows as being quite important - if they are broken definitively to the downside and confirm below, and the dollar breaks 120 and confirms above, I'll throw out my bullish base case.

A key stock looks like it has confirmed its recent bottom of 82 or so (Google).

Mostly, I am bullish cuz my JBS (Jesus Buy Signal) was triggered last Oct./November.

Don't wanna go against the Big Guy ...

You make a very good point re. the sentiment stuff, this screwed me up too!

However, is it that sentiment doesn't work, did in the past but now doesn't any longer or that the primary measure that we used, namely AAII data is manipulated because so many were using it?

Sentiment is a measure of MP so surely if we have accurate data it is massively significant, how else are the PTB going to screw over the masses but to sell when the majority are buying and buy when the majority are selling or refuse to buy?

What do others think?

Yes, agree with you 100%. Garbage in garbage out. There must be other ways to find out what other players are doing. Actual sentiment. I know this is much easier to do with commodities and currencies. Maybe that's why I gravitate towards those more so. I know, for instance IG Wealth produces information on their website indicating how bullish or bearish their customers are. Ratings over 75% or so seem to be good indicators for contrarians. The brokerages I trade with don't have this kind of information available for clients. Same with COT data but that only covers indexes as far as stocks are concerned. As Yodean has mentioned in other threads it is a very useful tool. I use it too.

But what to do about stocks? This is something I have access to on NASDAQ Quandle.



It is only raw data and only for the securities listed on NASDAQ but maybe others know of a similar source of information. I know it's just a bunch of numbers in this example and impossible to read without context but available none the less. It is daily and you can access historical information. I'm not a computer guy so I don't know how to compile this but it seems to be more accurate than just asking a bunch of people what they think. Like AAII. Maybe. Less chance of manipulation anyway.