Broad Discussion: Stock Market Outlook 2023

[Triplethought]

A very powerful man wanted to impart a lesson to those who worked for him. In front of thousands of them, he told one of his workers to bring him a chicken. He grabbed it and pulled out all its feathers while it was alive. He pulled out every single feather, and the chicken screamed in pain during the process. Once completed, he dropped the chicken to the floor and started sprinkling food around it. The chicken began to eat the food.


He pointed to the chicken and said that is what people are like. You can treat them however you want. If you feed them, they will forget and fall in line.

My sister kept 3 chickens in cages in the garage and told me the story once that she needed to slaughter one of the chickens for dinner and did so in front of the other chickens. The other two clucked excitedly for the entrails of their fellow as she gutted it. They happily devoured them without a thought that one day it could be them.

That story always stuck with me

[Triplethought]

I believe that in order for equities to continue higher we need to see the NASDAQ catch up NOW. option play to the short side. VIX calls too.

Dude, stocks goin' up.

It is always darkest before the Light.

Plus, YoungAnakin's still kinda bearish and easy to trigger.

When YoungAnakin turns bullish publicly, I'm selling everything and shorting everything.



This is the Way of the Ninjedi.

Sitting in mostly cash for now. I admittedly "realized" $50K of losses this year in the market but am still investing in business and real estate. Rolled about half of my ira to a roth to offset tax deductions from buying a machine shop. Sold the big warehouse in North Carolina for 100K profit and invested in a mortgage on a hotel nearby. Expect the mortgage on the industrial site to pay off in 2 months and then I'll need to hunt for a place to put cash. people seem to be scrambling for hard money loans right now. banks have sucked in their lending a bit.

Maybe we should double or nothin the S&P bet to the 1st quarter of 2023. Same bet it will end lower on March 31st than it starts on Jan 1st. I mean It's gotta go down sometime right?

I am impressed how much Dow is up for this 4th quarter given all the negative news.

[MarkD]

I believe that in order for equities to continue higher we need to see the NASDAQ catch up NOW. Perhaps Powell's fedspeak will initiate this, shortly. If not, I will be mostly out of equities by the end of the year, watch the carnage take place and start to build a portfolio at the end of the first quarter.

I will keep my eye on Tesla as a prelude to what the market will do here also. It sounds stupid but I think it will lead. Elon is not playing nice in the PTB sandbox and must be punished. I see 128 then 113. AMZN will also be a good option play to the short side. VIX calls too.

Don't know the future but your price levels are spot on imo - stock may hold around 160 or dump into the high 120s where the two support/resistance lines are drawn on the monthly. Until Elon sells out to the shills running the show.

https://imgur.com/LhkImZV

[Budge]

A very powerful man wanted to impart a lesson to those who worked for him. In front of thousands of them, he told one of his workers to bring him a chicken. He grabbed it and pulled out all its feathers while it was alive. He pulled out every single feather, and the chicken screamed in pain during the process. Once completed, he dropped the chicken to the floor and started sprinkling food around it. The chicken began to eat the food.


He pointed to the chicken and said that is what people are like. You can treat them however you want. If you feed them, they will forget and fall in line.

My sister kept 3 chickens in cages in the garage and told me the story once that she needed to slaughter one of the chickens for dinner and did so in front of the other chickens. The other two clucked excitedly for the entrails of their fellow as she gutted it. They happily devoured them without a thought that one day it could be them.

That story always stuck with me

Moral - don't come back as a fuckin chicken!!

[Yodean]

Maybe we should double or nothin the S&P bet to the 1st quarter of 2023. Same bet it will end lower on March 31st than it starts on Jan 1st. I mean It's gotta go down sometime right?

I am impressed how much Dow is up for this 4th quarter given all the negative news.

One bet at a time, amigo. I've also got an active one with Budge.

Don't worry, I've already decided on a good topic for you. Not a weird ass topic but something that plays to your strengths, or at least what you might consider your strengths.

You'll have to write a 500+ word post on: "The problems with relying solely on double-blind, placebo-controlled trials in decision-making, both in clinical and non-clinical contexts."

I expect nothing less than the very best from you, so you might want to start contemplating the topic a tad.

[Triplethought]

Maybe we should double or nothin the S&P bet to the 1st quarter of 2023. Same bet it will end lower on March 31st than it starts on Jan 1st. I mean It's gotta go down sometime right?

I am impressed how much Dow is up for this 4th quarter given all the negative news.

One bet at a time, amigo. I've also got an active one with Budge.

Don't worry, I've already decided on a good topic for you. Not a weird ass topic but something that plays to your strengths, or at least what you might consider your strengths.

You'll have to write a 500+ word post on: "The problems with relying solely on double-blind, placebo-controlled trials in decision-making, both in clinical and non-clinical contexts."

I expect nothing less than the very best from you, so you might want to start contemplating the topic a tad.

I will. I don't like the topic much but I probably can make some good arguments in support of it. And, there's still a chance you lose the bet my friend. I'm jumping on a plane today so will likely be out of pocket til Jan 6th unless I decide to get wifi on the ship.

[Yodean]

I'm jumping on a plane today so will likely be out of pocket til Jan 6th unless I decide to get wifi on the ship.

Have a gr8 time. I just heard about a new coronavirus variant that apparently seems to like hanging out on cruise ships.

Symptoms induced by this particular subtype include dry cough, excess mucus production leading to refractory sinusitis, and SOED (Sudden Onset Erectile Dysfunction).

Make sure you bring 33 masks, wash your hands constantly, physically distance, and most importantly, a big bottle of diamond-shaped blue pills.

https://youtu.be/IP4CMVEJJ1s?t=1

[scott]

I just heard about a new coronavirus variant that apparently seems to like hanging out on cruise ships.

Symptoms induced by this particular subtype include dry cough, excess mucus production leading to refractory sinusitis, and SOED (Sudden Onset Erectile Dysfunction).

I wasn't on no cruise ship!

[Yodean]

I wasn't on no cruise ship!

That's pretty good. Took me a few seconds ...

[hooligan]

bezos , gates , musk , dimon w recession comments

feels weird

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRqWkDcF/
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRqnXmc4/

[Yodean]

bezos , gates , musk , dimon w recession comments

feels weird

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRqWkDcF/
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRqnXmc4/

Yeh, I'm fading the "recession narrative," at least until April.

I actually think the USA is stumbling slowly _out_ of a weak recession.

Recessions are "declared" to be officially as such by NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) at a later date than when they occur.

So look at what happened this year:

-negative q1 gdp;
-negative q2 gdp;
-slightly positive q3 gdp;
-q4 is going to be close, but i would guess slightly positive ...

-from memory, just fairly recently, "they" adjusted (reduced) the official employment numbers by over 1 million for q2! That ain't an honest mistake, that's frank manipulation of data (likely to support the Blue's midterm elections as well as continue to support the Fed continuing to raise rates) when it first came out.

-so you've got two quarters of negative gdp growth (q1, q2) and terrible employment in q2 at least ... that's pretty much the definition of a recession ...

-so i think the usa at least is coming out of a recession ... doesn't meant there won't be a potential "double dip" recession in late '23 or sometime '24/'25;

-in terms of the equity markets, i'm bullish until april, then i'll reassess ... think china (can use fxi as proxy), idu, copper, maybe even nikkei will lead the next leg up, and provide clues ...

[Do-or-Die]

Yeh, I'm fading the "recession narrative," at least until April.

I think one more leg down and I think April is when we more or less bottom, but then again I could be wrong and you could be right. I have been taking profits whenever I could. For the most part I am only holding positions that are in the red.

[Yodean]

I think one more leg down and I think April is when we more or less bottom, but then again I could be wrong and you could be right.

Could be. Coin flip - AK vs. QQ pre-flop all-in, if you're a poker player.

The thing is ... there's always another "leg down." And there's always another "leg up."

How much in each direction? When?

I'm not sure anybody knows - at best, it's a decent guess.

Actually, Skynet's DeepMind prolly knows.

[SOL]

I think one more leg down and I think April is when we more or less bottom, but then again I could be wrong and you could be right.

Could be. Coin flip - AK vs. QQ pre-flop all-in, if you're a poker player.

The thing is ... there's always another "leg down." And there's always another "leg up."

How much in each direction? When?

I'm not sure anybody knows - at best, it's a decent guess.

Actually, Skynet's DeepMind prolly knows.

VIX is being manipulated, BLS is screwing with the unemployment data, and Sentiment data is definitely being mishandled; historically, a strong rally, even if it was a counter-rally in an otherwise down-trending market, would have moved bullish sentiment past the historical average; did not happen this time. Then we have on-the-fly inflation being created by screwing with the supply. I think it was Milton freedman's that stated if you want to create inflation, just start adding price caps to things; for example, add a price cap to the price of bread, and you will have inflation. So now the US is playing with price caps; worse yet, they are not the biggest exporters of oil or natural gas.

So, all in all, the big players are doing their best to create a generation of zombies by inducing a state of learned helplessness. Imagine the power they will have even if they achieve this. Most individuals will not leave the US, and so even if the US losses top-dog status, eventually, the supply of individuals to bilk will still be massive.

In terms of the financial markets, every extreme reaction results in an even more extreme reaction in the opposite direction. So this massive deviation from the norm in so many areas (TA, sentiment, etc.) could very well create a bull that lasts a decade, albeit extremely volatile and cranky.

[deepthinker]

I think one more leg down and I think April is when we more or less bottom, but then again I could be wrong and you could be right.

Could be. Coin flip - AK vs. QQ pre-flop all-in, if you're a poker player.

The thing is ... there's always another "leg down." And there's always another "leg up."

How much in each direction? When?

I'm not sure anybody knows - at best, it's a decent guess.

Actually, Skynet's DeepMind prolly knows.

VIX is being manipulated, BLS is screwing with the unemployment data, and Sentiment data is definitely being mishandled; historically, a strong rally, even if it was a counter-rally in an otherwise down-trending market, would have moved bullish sentiment past the historical average; did not happen this time. Then we have on-the-fly inflation being created by screwing with the supply. I think it was Milton freedman's that stated if you want to create inflation just start adding price caps to things, for example, add a price cap to the price of bread and you will have inflation. So now the US is playing with price caps and worse yet, they are not the biggest exporters of oil or natural gas.

So, all in all the big players are doing their best to create a generation of zombies by inducing a state of learned helplessness. Imagine the power they will have even if they achieve this. Most individuals will not leave the US and so even if the US losses top-dog status eventually the supply of individuals to bilk will still be massive.

In terms of the financial markets, every extreme reaction results in an even more extreme reaction in the opposite direction. So this massive deviation from the norm in so many areas (TA, sentiment, etc) could very well create a bull that lasts a decade albeit an extremely volatile and cranky one.

skynet is overrated. G is getting worried about Chatgpt, they have even put their engineers on alert to focus on more AI products. With tech all it takes is one slip. Despite all the money they have allocated to other sectors, search is still responsible for 80% of their earnings. A new report shows that G is losing out on the advertising battle to Apple and other players.

Universal income is almost a certainty. It gives the big players unlimited control of the penguins. The new slogan will probably be rent your mind for a fee.

Google’s had an awkward week. After years of preaching that conversational search was its future, it’s stood by as the world discovered ChatGPT.

The powerful chatbot from OpenAI takes queries—some meant for the search bar—and answers with astonishing conversational replies. It’s shared recipes, reviewed code, and argued politics so adeptly that screenshots of its answers now fill social media. This was the future Google promised. But not with someone else fulfilling it.

How Google missed this moment is not a simple matter of a blind spot. It’s a case of an incumbent being so careful about its business, reputation, and customer relationships that it refused to release similar, more powerful tech. And it’s far from the end of the story.

“Google thinks a lot about how something can damage its reputation,” said Gaurav Nemade, an ex-Google product manager who was first to helm its LaMDA chatbot. “They lean on the side of conservatism.”

Google’s LaMDA—made famous when engineer Blake Lemoine called it sentient—is a more capable bot than ChatGPT, yet the company’s been hesitant to make it public. For Google, the problem with chatbots is they’re wrong a lot, yet present their answers with undeserved confidence. Leading people astray—with assuredness—is less than ideal for a company built on helping you find the right answers. So LaMDA remains in research mode.

https://observer.com/2022/12/heres-why- ... atbot-war/