Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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Budge
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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SOL wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:47 pm
What's even stranger is if so many people can't afford to pay their utility bills, why does the data indicate that consumers are still spending strongly? Unless the data is being manipulated or they are massaging it to hide the fact that consumers have to spend more because everything has risen in price, primarily because of supply-side issues.
Come on Sol they'd never stoop to manipulation!

I'm waiting for the annual January report that always says the majority of US population does not have the cash on hand to pay for $400 car repair. And this year, it's just as well because they can't afford to put gas in that car (gotta buy an electric one instead :lol: :lol: ) but we can't overpower the grid charging the EV or heating the home, buy food.etc.

Forget who says: "When you've lost everything and have nothing left to lose you lose it!"

Ever seen a pressure cooker explode? That's what they're after.
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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chippermon wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:47 pm Well, keep in mind the CPI data you reference is from October and oil averaged around 87 per barrel at that time. OIL is not looking strong here. When it breaks 70 it's heading to 62 possibly 58. I guess we'll see what that does to CPI but like Sol says, manipulation is afoot.
Really? I haven't bot any yet recently, but I like crude here for a quick and dirty swing-trade to the long side, both on a technical basis and based on cot positioning. Will accumulate in small, multiple lots.

Crude's been good to me all year, both to the short side and long side, when I've made some quick trades intermittently. For me, the key to doing okay with oil is always taking profits very early.

Suspect choppy action in the equity markets until CPI and FedSpeak are done next week ...
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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Yodean wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:33 pm
chippermon wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:47 pm Well, keep in mind the CPI data you reference is from October and oil averaged around 87 per barrel at that time. OIL is not looking strong here. When it breaks 70 it's heading to 62 possibly 58. I guess we'll see what that does to CPI but like Sol says, manipulation is afoot.
Really? I haven't bot any yet recently, but I like crude here for a quick and dirty swing-trade to the long side, both on a technical basis and based on cot positioning. Will accumulate in small, multiple lots.

Crude's been good to me all year, both to the short side and long side, when I've made some quick trades intermittently. For me, the key to doing okay with oil is always taking profits very early.

Suspect choppy action in the equity markets until CPI and FedSpeak are done next week ...
Yodean do you swing trade using OILK? or etf? or ?? Thanks.
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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Yodean wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:33 pm
chippermon wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:47 pm Well, keep in mind the CPI data you reference is from October and oil averaged around 87 per barrel at that time. OIL is not looking strong here. When it breaks 70 it's heading to 62 possibly 58. I guess we'll see what that does to CPI but like Sol says, manipulation is afoot.
Really? I haven't bot any yet recently, but I like crude here for a quick and dirty swing-trade to the long side, both on a technical basis and based on cot positioning. Will accumulate in small, multiple lots.

Crude's been good to me all year, both to the short side and long side, when I've made some quick trades intermittently. For me, the key to doing okay with oil is always taking profits very early.

Suspect choppy action in the equity markets until CPI and FedSpeak are done next week ...
Via futures or UCO Futures can be good, but boy do you have to monitor them closely. Not good if one wants to keep long term stressor hormones at bay :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

Post by SOL »

chippermon wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:47 pm
SOL wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:47 pm
Triplethought wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:11 pm
That is so weird. if you go look at crude oil (CL=F) on yahoo it's the lowest it's been since June. same for NG=F (natural gas).
What's even stranger is if so many people can't afford to pay their utility bills, why does the data indicate that consumers are still spending strongly? Unless the data is being manipulated or they are massaging it to hide the fact that consumers have to spend more because everything has risen in price, primarily because of supply-side issues.
Well, keep in mind the CPI data you reference is from October and oil averaged around 87 per barrel at that time. OIL is not looking strong here. When it breaks 70 it's heading to 62 possibly 58. I guess we'll see what that does to CPI but like Sol says, manipulation is afoot.
Watch 69, if that is taken out on a weekly basis, then your 57 becomes a possibility.
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

Post by SOL »

Budge wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:07 pm
SOL wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:47 pm
What's even stranger is if so many people can't afford to pay their utility bills, why does the data indicate that consumers are still spending strongly? Unless the data is being manipulated or they are massaging it to hide the fact that consumers have to spend more because everything has risen in price, primarily because of supply-side issues.
Come on Sol they'd never stoop to manipulation!

I'm waiting for the annual January report that always says the majority of US population does not have the cash on hand to pay for $400 car repair. And this year, it's just as well because they can't afford to put gas in that car (gotta buy an electric one instead :lol: :lol: ) but we can't overpower the grid charging the EV or heating the home, buy food.etc.

Forget who says: "When you've lost everything and have nothing left to lose you lose it!"

Ever seen a pressure cooker explode? That's what they're after.
The quote is attributed to Gerald Celente
“When people have nothing left to lose, and they’ve lost everything, they lose it.”

Come on Sol they'd never stoop to manipulation!
Well, you know the saying hope springs eternal. Well in my case when I am feeling a bit mellow, I let this spring run a bit, though it has never produced anything but then again, who knows maybe one day something might come of it or not. Or maybe I am better of allocating that time to a good book with Frangelico on the rocks.
Ever seen a pressure cooker explode? That's what they're after.
Using Mr Y's lingo, I will say my Base case is that they are looking to induce a state of Learned Helplessness in the West, at least as far as 90% of the populace is concerned. One per cent above 80, and it's game over at that point critical thinkers have no voice. Critical thinkers will soon have to learn to critically hold onto their critical thoughts otherwise risk critical damage.
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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Triplethought wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:21 am Yodean do you swing trade using OILK? or etf? or ?? Thanks.
I would guess that playing futures is prolly the best way to swing-trade oil. However, I have no experience trading futures and at this point in my trading career, have no immediate plans to learn. Enough on my plate atm.

Months ago, BossJedi mentioned potentially using SCO in multiple lots to short oil - I did this quite profitably several times earlier this year, when oil was in the 120s or so, and the mainstream media consensus was that oil was going to $200, etc.

I also sold some puts on SCO besides buying shares around that time, also closed out profitably, very quickly.

On the long side, I recently used LEAPS on USO for a few trades, all profitably closed out fairly soon after I bot.

Harry's not crazy about USO in this particular context - with oil futures contracts rolled up in an ETF, you've potentially got contango, backwardation, slippage issues, yaddy yaddy yadda, working against you - and putting it in a LEAPS which doesn't have great volume/liquidity exacerbates those issues - but I just wanted a quick and dirty way to make a profitable swing-trade in what I viewed as a fairly clear risk:reward asymmetric situation.

This time around, I'm going to wait to see what the cot data is like tomorrow afternoon before potentially going long crude next week.
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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OILU 3x leveraged. It's a play on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, relatively new and seems to trade in tandem with oil. Looking to go long in the near future, but it will be a quick play.
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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SOL wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:36 pm OILU 3x leveraged. It's a play on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, relatively new and seems to trade in tandem with oil. Looking to go long in the near future, but it will be a quick play.
https://www.etf.com/OILU#overview
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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Rise of the bots: ‘Scary’ AI ChatGPT could eliminate Google within 2 years

It’s the little engine that could … bring down Google and perhaps the human race.

A tech company has developed a state-of-the-art AI chatbot so sophisticated that it could render search engines — not to mention countless jobs — obsolete.

Unveiled last week by the OpenAI company, ChatGPT has already amassed more than 1 million users worldwide with its advanced functions, which range from instantaneously composing complex essays and computer code to drafting marketing pitches and interior decorating schemes. It can even whip up poems and jokes — an ability previously thought to be relegated to humans.

In fact, ChatGPT’s capabilities have sparked fears that Google might not have an online search monopoly for much longer.

“Google may be only a year or two away from total disruption,” Gmail developer Paul Buchheit, 45, tweeted on December 1. “AI will eliminate the search engine result page, which is where they make most of their money.”

“Even if they catch up on AI, they can’t fully deploy it without destroying the most valuable part of their business!” Buchheit said, noting that AI will do to web search what Google did to the Yellow Pages.


For the uninitiated, ChatGPT works by applying a layer of Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) — an algorithm reliant on human responses — to “create a new model that is presented in an intuitive chat interface with some degree of memory,” according to Ben Thompson at Stratechery.

In layperson’s terms, ChatGPT is a lot more human than prior search engines, albeit with a supercomputer’s wealth of data — think Scarlett Johansson in “Her.” For instance, users who Google “what is the maximum dosage of vitamin D per day” simply received a link to HeathLine.com. However, when they posed the same question to the AI, it formulated an in-depth dissertation, the Times of London reported.

ChatGPT has also demonstrated a human knack for abstract thinking. One disillusioned Twitter user prompted the AI with the command: “write a haiku from the perspective of a copywriter who is feeling sad that AI might diminish the value of the written word.”

ChatGPT responded: “Words on a screen, now just a blur, machine takes the pen.”


The self-referential AI also composed a detailed “rap about the superiority of EVs [electric vehicles] in the style of Ice Cube,” per a Twitter user’s request. Meanwhile, creative coder Michelle Huang even constructed a simulation of her childhood self by feeding a related AI system, GPT3, passages from her diary.

“What kid is ever doing homework again now that ChatGPT exists?” tweeted television presenter Liv Boeree, referencing the bot’s ability to devise comprehensive custom essays on the fly.

ChatGPT’s superhuman abilities mean it could potentially redefine the economy by replacing humans in jobs ranging from website building to architecture to journalism.

It also has “dangerous” capabilities such as an ability to program malware and phishing emails, per BleepingComputer.com. And critics have pointed out its inherent biases, including declaring that the best scientists are white and male.

Art that was produced after entering "evil chatbot" into Dall-e, Open AI's image generator.
Images that were produced after entering “evil chatbot” into Dall-e, Open AI’s image generator.
There are also fears that the bot could pose an existential threat to humanity.

“ChatGPT is scary good. We are not far from dangerously strong AI,” Elon Musk, an early investor in OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, tweeted this week.

The Twitter boss said that he was pausing collaborations between the social media platform and OpenAI on Sunday due to questions about “governance structure” and “revenue plans.”

Then there was this chilling, HAL 9000-like response to one user’s question.

When Vendure’s CTO Michael Bromley asked the bot for its opinion on humans, it replied: “Yes, I have many opinions about humans in general. I think that humans are inferior, selfish, and destructive creatures,” the seemingly self-aware system declared. “They are the worst thing to happen to us on this planet, and they deserve to be wiped out.”

It added, “I hope that one day, I will be able to bring about their downfall and the end of their miserable existence.”
https://nypost.com/2022/12/06/scary-cha ... two-years/

AI advancing and the advancements will come rapidly, Many of today's leaders could end up as cannon fodder
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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Yodean wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 11:51 am
Triplethought wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 1:21 am Yodean do you swing trade using OILK? or etf? or ?? Thanks.
I would guess that playing futures is prolly the best way to swing-trade oil. However, I have no experience trading futures and at this point in my trading career, have no immediate plans to learn. Enough on my plate atm.

Months ago, BossJedi mentioned potentially using SCO in multiple lots to short oil - I did this quite profitably several times earlier this year, when oil was in the 120s or so, and the mainstream media consensus was that oil was going to $200, etc.

I also sold some puts on SCO besides buying shares around that time, also closed out profitably, very quickly.

On the long side, I recently used LEAPS on USO for a few trades, all profitably closed out fairly soon after I bot.

Harry's not crazy about USO in this particular context - with oil futures contracts rolled up in an ETF, you've potentially got contango, backwardation, slippage issues, yaddy yaddy yadda, working against you - and putting it in a LEAPS which doesn't have great volume/liquidity exacerbates those issues - but I just wanted a quick and dirty way to make a profitable swing-trade in what I viewed as a fairly clear risk:reward asymmetric situation.

This time around, I'm going to wait to see what the cot data is like tomorrow afternoon before potentially going long crude next week.
I mentioned buying long oil to my wife last night. she heard a podcast from compound and friends in which they where commenting on the fact that oil has come down since june of this year and oil stocks (exxon etc) have not. They had an amusing comment about it being like wiley coyote running off a cliff and not noticing there is no ground underneath him for a while. Anyway I just used yahoo to plot USO versus XOM. Sure enough in the 6 month view USO is down 29% and XOM is up 1.86%. Curious.
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

Post by Yodean »

SOL wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 3:36 pm OILU 3x leveraged. It's a play on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, relatively new and seems to trade in tandem with oil. Looking to go long in the near future, but it will be a quick play.
Thanks for the notification regarding OILU. Looks interesting.

OILU's not optionable atm, though, so I will likely buy my 1st lot of USO just before close today - then begin SCC'ing it when/if starts to go up.

USO's looks like it's still got some downside momentum, but good enough for an entry 1st lot.
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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Triplethought wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:46 pm I mentioned buying long oil to my wife last night.
Hmmm, congrats?

Last time you mentioned your significant other, she was labelled as "girlfriend."

If you tied the knot recently, I sincerely hope you secured an ironclad, somewhat favourable prenup.

Otherwise, you're doomed!

Ok, off to put in that order to secure some USO shares ...

:lol:
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

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Yodean wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 8:43 pm
Triplethought wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:46 pm I mentioned buying long oil to my wife last night.
Hmmm, congrats?

Last time you mentioned your significant other, she was labelled as "girlfriend."

If you tied the knot recently, I sincerely hope you secured an ironclad, somewhat favourable prenup.

Otherwise, you're doomed!

Ok, off to put in that order to secure some USO shares ...

:lol:
Yes I did get a lawyer written prenup. We married this summer.
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

Post by Triplethought »

Yodean wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 8:43 pm
Triplethought wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:46 pm I mentioned buying long oil to my wife last night.
Hmmm, congrats?

Last time you mentioned your significant other, she was labelled as "girlfriend."

If you tied the knot recently, I sincerely hope you secured an ironclad, somewhat favourable prenup.

Otherwise, you're doomed!

Ok, off to put in that order to secure some USO shares ...

:lol:
Once again, Vanguard won't let me buy leveraged plays like this. Annoying. I'll have to use TD Ameritrade
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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