Speculating on war

[Triplethought]

Given Ukraine and the need for "more missiles"
Given the saber rattling with China over Taiwan.
Given Japan just announced they would be doubling their military spend.
Given I bet Europe will be increasing military spend.
Given the rhetoric of divisiveness in this country and others (whether caused by social media or media or whatever) - to the point some people are uttering the "C" word (civil war).
Given the growing divide between haves and have nots. Not just in the US but elsewhere
Given the race baiting creating more anger.
Given the liberals penchant for government spending.

I started wondering if investing in military manufacturers would produce Alpha. Specifically US military companies.

Some of us already own LDOS, which is up 30% since we bought it a year ago. Makes me wonder about buying Lockheed, Boeing, Northrup, General Dynamics, and Raytheon (on the next dip of course).

Or for the ETF players. A quick check shows them UP for the year (when everything else has been down)

Invesco Aerospace & Defense (NYSE:PPA)
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense (NYSE:XAR)
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense (BATS:ITA)

I'm troubled about the morality of investing in the death of other people and have not looked at the specifics of these companies or their financial outlook. But I'm not going to change the world with my piddly investing. Wondering everyone's thoughts?

[harryg]

I expect this industry will do well. It's one of the biggest branches of govt, effectively.

I'm sure we all remember stories of Halliburton charging the govt (ie: us taxpayers) $100 to wash a bag of soldier's kit. I understand that you can't, as an enemy soldier, use the Baghdad 24h laundromat, but only a govt supplier could get away with that kind of pricing (disclaimer: that story might not be true, so ignore it).

France managed to get Egypt to buy a load of Rafales (Dassault), by lending Egypt the money to buy them (85% of the 4 billion €). How's that for support? https://www.lemonde.fr/international/ar ... _3210.html

However, although some claim that investing should be 'morally neutral', I find that if I am not in sync with an investment then I don't do so well at it. So if I am not comfortable with an industry or a company, I don't buy the shares. It's not a case of moralising or trying to make a statement, just a personal preference to invest elsewhere. LMT is up 40% this year, I am not. Can't have it all ways.

Bringing up these issues can be controversial. It's no accident that this industry calls itself Defense. You can't really be against defense of your country can you?

[stefk]

What is morality of investing? Nowadays, the war is a war of information. Information is stronger than weapons. All the medias mainstream are criminal, they misinform daily, and their propaganda is more lethal than missiles.
Google, FB, tiktok ..... all these brainwashing instruments are lethal.

[Yodean]

I'm troubled about the morality of investing in the death of other people and have not looked at the specifics of these companies or their financial outlook. But I'm not going to change the world with my piddly investing. Wondering everyone's thoughts?

I think it's a personal decision, as always, subject to one's individual, specific perspectives. The latter tends to change over time.

Like a lot of matters, I don't think you'll really know how you feel about the "morality" of an investment until you buy and hold it for a while.

A year or two ago, I vaguely remember buying some LMT in the low 300s. I was planning to HODL it for years.

I am not exactly one of those idealistic, "kumbaya" types that sees the best in humanity, etc. - quite the opposite, in fact - I tend to immediately perceive the worst and weakest parts of any individual I happen to encounter, and so forth. Sometimes I am proven wrong, but not often.

If anything, "live well and let die" would be my personal motto.

Anyways, LMT went up 20% or so from my purchase point, as well as paying out a healthy dividend, so the investment was looking good. But a part of me increasingly felt uncomfortable with the investment - a part of me I didn't know existed previously - so I sold LMT several months later. Felt better afterwards.

Sometime in early/mid-2020, fellow sub langdj and myself were having a discussion about cv19 on another forum.

He and I, along with a few others on that forum - including an extremely prominent TIT member who prolly wishes to remain anonymous atm - saw the farce that cv19 was being spun into, and were willingly to publicly state our opinions. Some in more direct terms, others more indirectly.

Naturally, we were mocked by others en masse on that forum at that time.

In any case, this led to a discussion about investing in Big Pharma. Langdj said he draws the line at investing in Big Pharma - he just doesn't want to do it, no matter the potential profits.

My response at that time was somewhat similar to YoungAnakin's sentiment: "Well, I'll invest in anything that is likely to be profitable - my personal amount of investing won't make a difference in the big picture, either way. I'm not sure what that says about me, but it is what it is."

I think for brief periods of time, I held some Pfizer and TAK, etc. But once again, weeks to months after buying these types of Big Pharma companies, I felt increasingly guilty. Not too long after buying them, I sold them at par or a small profit, from what I remember.

It's not black and white, of course - imo Pfizer and Big Pharma on balance have committed unbelievable atrocities against humanity over the last several decades (not just the cv19 vax stuff) - but at the same time, some products of Big Pharma have been beneficial. I still use small amounts of the Blue Pill occasionally to guarantee certain results in the boudoir.

As for Google, Meta, etc. participating in misinformation, censorship, government surveillance, etc. - this is all true, from what I can ascertain - but these companies also supply useful services.

The Metaverse will take some time, but nothing is going to stop this mega-trend, imo. It's the future, there will be no escape. FB still allows people to connect with each other online.

Google allows independent, critical thinkers, young and old, to learn stuff quickly, as long as they can see through the censorship and propaganda. I've been cooking a bit more recently, and wanted to review how to make Taiwanese Braised Beef. Google assisted me significantly in that endeavor, with pretty decent results.

Increasingly, more and more, I tend to lean in the direction of the "there are no victims, only volunteers" mindset.

If someone is dumb enough to fall victim to some mainstream narrative/propaganda being promulgated by the PTBs and suffers as a result in some fashion, well, that's how the cookie crumbles.

A manifestation of cause and effect, in a way.

[SOL]

Think of all the whistle-blowers over the years. What was their goal to help mankind or the community? What was the net result? Jack S**T. Humanity, as a rule, oscillates towards the area that requires the least effort, sloth, greed, etc.; anything that requires effort, they will baulk at. That is why 10% at any given time can think out of the box and do what it takes to make it; this number used to be 20%, and the number is probably below 10% now.


Just some random data to ponder over
In 2008-2009, investors dealt with that brutal battle of attrition 3X better than today (TI members, that is); many of them are still with us today, and several are already multi-millionaires. This is not meant to portray a good or bad outlook; it is meant to illustrate how times are changing and changing rapidly.


On a separate note, this is an interesting TV series to watch. Its called Dark, from Netflix in German with English subtitles, but it has since been dubbed into English

A subscriber provided me with this site. It seems to be some site that posts free movies, but I would use a VPN to be safe if you are in the West.

https://ww1.123moviesfree.net/season/da ... aNycGzNF-U


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrwycJ0 ... l=ONEMedia

[caseyh1981]

On a separate note, this is an interesting TV series to watch. Its called Dark, from Netflix in German with English subtitles, but it has since been dubbed into English

A subscriber provided me with this site. It seems to be some site that posts free movies, but I would use a VPN to be safe if you are in the West.

https://ww1.123moviesfree.net/season/da ... aNycGzNF-U


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrwycJ0 ... l=ONEMedia

Excellent show!! The same creators also just premiered a new show called 1899 that is also excellent and very fitting with some of the conversations we've had around here, although I don’t want to say which ones, since it might spoil the story.

[SOL]

What is morality of investing? Nowadays, the war is a war of information. Information is stronger than weapons. All the medias mainstream are criminal, they misinform daily, and their propaganda is more lethal than missiles.
Google, FB, tiktok ..... all these brainwashing instruments are lethal.

Short and sweet and to the point. Misinformation is far more serious than missiles, for while deadly its most often missed by the masses.

[harryg]

These types of comments are typical of, and exclusive to, those living extremely comfortable lives in Western democracies. It's like the idea that living in N. Korea is no different from living in Canada. Ooooh decline of the west, I'd be better off living in Pyongyang - at least you know where you are. Go for it.

I agree that misinformation is a problem, but with some effort it can be circumvented (for now). And it is in no way whatsoever new, or a product of tech companies. Ask anyone in the UK about the Windscale nuclear disaster. The government intervened massively to stop all negative reporting. That was in 1957.

Personally I'd rather be (potentially) misinformed than have my legs blown off by a land mine.

[SOL]

These types of comments are typical of, and exclusive to, those living extremely comfortable lives in Western democracies. It's like the idea that living in N. Korea is no different from living in Canada. Ooooh decline of the west, I'd be better off living in Pyongyang - at least you know where you are. Go for it.

I agree that misinformation is a problem, but with some effort it can be circumvented (for now). And it is in no way whatsoever new, or a product of tech companies. Ask anyone in the UK about the Windscale nuclear disaster. The government intervened massively to stop all negative reporting. That was in 1957.

Personally I'd rather be (potentially) misinformed than have my legs blown off by a land mine.

Harry Harry, you are right on track except for a tiny trivial detail. You speak as a critical thinker. Now apply that to someone that cannot think, won't think or worse yet is easily manipulated. Now let's assume this chap happens to have an automatic weapon or, worse yet, a machine gun. Given the right prompts, that gun in his hand could take out a lot of people.

[harryg]

Absolutely true, that's the primary reason that we would never choose to live in a country where morons (ie: the general population) can easily purchase guns.

I don't suppose it's reported much outside the UK, but the rise in knife crime in London is quite staggering. Nearly all a certain type of chap stabbing each other, but you could be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Bear in mind that this is quite a pleasant part of London, in the afternoon...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSMJTAvQXqU
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15145043/ ... ting-life/

It’s one of the reasons we moved out.

Bloody Google.

[Eric]

Absolutely true, that's the primary reason that we would never choose to live in a country where morons (ie: the general population) can easily purchase guns.

I don't suppose it's reported much outside the UK, but the rise in knife crime in London is quite staggering. Nearly all a certain type of chap stabbing each other, but you could be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Because I'm so in tune with gun rights and the second amendment, I'm fully aware of the massive amount of non-gun violent crime, especially in areas of the world where it's hard to get a gun.

What few people know is that almost all of the high-profile "mass-shootings" were performed by "known-wolves"... People that were either already prohibited form legally obtaining firearms, or should have been prohibited but weren't because of failure of the FBI or local law enforcement (mostly the later, but some of the former).

[LoriPrecisely]

Absolutely true, that's the primary reason that we would never choose to live in a country where morons (ie: the general population) can easily purchase guns.

I don't suppose it's reported much outside the UK, but the rise in knife crime in London is quite staggering. Nearly all a certain type of chap stabbing each other, but you could be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Bear in mind that this is quite a pleasant part of London, in the afternoon...

It’s one of the reasons we moved out.

Bloody Google.

Somebody needs to shoot those guys and put them out of their misery.

[LoriPrecisely]

Just some random data to ponder over
In 2008-2009, investors dealt with that brutal battle of attrition 3X better than today (TI members, that is); many of them are still with us today, and several are already multi-millionaires. This is not meant to portray a good or bad outlook; it is meant to illustrate how times are changing and changing rapidly.

As I can only speak for myself personally, the downturn in the market was not really the problem. It was the expectation of a rally in Sept/Oct that caused me to make certain decisions that proved to be exactly the opposite of what I should have been doing. Had I not changed my original trading plan, I would have been fine with the market direction.
I believe that might be the case with other subscribers also, not the overall market direction. People who have been investing from 2008 until now know the market fluctuates. I doubt that surprises them.

[stefk]

These types of comments are typical of, and exclusive to, those living extremely comfortable lives in Western democracies. It's like the idea that living in N. Korea is no different from living in Canada. Ooooh decline of the west, I'd be better off living in Pyongyang - at least you know where you are. Go for it.

I agree that misinformation is a problem, but with some effort it can be circumvented (for now). And it is in no way whatsoever new, or a product of tech companies. Ask anyone in the UK about the Windscale nuclear disaster. The government intervened massively to stop all negative reporting. That was in 1957.

Personally I'd rather be (potentially) misinformed than have my legs blown off by a land mine.

We could also find these comments in India, its not a comfortable western democracy. Misinformation and spreading hate and violence thanks to the tech companies, against the dalits, are causing hundreds murders and rapes of dalits in southern Asia. Propaganda and misinformation are universal. I take this example because India is the most connected country in the world.

I maintain to say the social medias and tech companies have caused and will cause bloodbaths and wars, and not only in the western countries.
These tech companies are the most powerful consensus factories, in the hands of our governments.

[SOL]

Absolutely true, that's the primary reason that we would never choose to live in a country where morons (ie: the general population) can easily purchase guns.

I don't suppose it's reported much outside the UK, but the rise in knife crime in London is quite staggering. Nearly all a certain type of chap stabbing each other, but you could be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Bear in mind that this is quite a pleasant part of London, in the afternoon...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSMJTAvQXqU
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15145043/ ... ting-life/

It’s one of the reasons we moved out.

Bloody Google.

Are you in the suburbs now? It used to be easier to get guns in the 70s up until, I think, 9/11. Look at NY, it's nigh impossible for a normal sane person to get a gun. Very easy for gangsters etc to get one and crime continues to surge.

More importantly, such thugs would have been ruthlessly dealt with by the Cops when things were normal. For example, if these guys tried this in China, they would probably be shot. I was in China twice. I think the last time was in 2019, and I was surprised at how safe it is. You could go anywhere and bear in mind that I speak almost no Chinese. I was using Bing translate and I went to several towns, used the regular train even late at night and had no problems. The cops there won't take this crap. Say what you want about China, but I felt safer there than in many parts of the US. Keep in mind I also tend to go to areas that most tourists won't visit. I don't like tourist traps, so it would have been easier for me to get into trouble, but I had a pretty good time. Wish I could speak Chinese. It would have been far nicer. The bullet trains are an absolute marvel.


I noticed the same thing in many parts of Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia etc. Even in Singapore, which is very modern and westernized, I am not sure thugs like this would be tolerated for long.