COUP

[jonnyfrank]

SOL,

How do you typically factor in something like todays news on potential buyout of COUPA? I have been out for a while, but I am curious as to how to play this one now, if at all.

I look forward to your insight.

[MarkD]

I am not certain this makes a difference but Macroaxis.com has fundamental data on equities, including an estimate of valuation based upon their model. Attached is a screenshot but I suspect it may not reach the price noted.

There is also technical resistance around $70-80 fwiw from my perspective.

https://imgur.com/cfgV25B

[SOL]

SOL,

How do you typically factor in something like todays news on potential buyout of COUPA? I have been out for a while, but I am curious as to how to play this one now, if at all.

I look forward to your insight.

Once an offer is made, there is not much to factor in. They either accept it or reject it.

[Triplethought]

SOL,

How do you typically factor in something like todays news on potential buyout of COUPA? I have been out for a while, but I am curious as to how to play this one now, if at all.

I look forward to your insight.

Thanks for posting this. I've been sitting on 100 shares and just sold them. I didn't see the news or have an alert so you helped me out.

[jonnyfrank]

3xThought,

So you flew the COUP?

[MarkD]

FYI

Chart end week BEFORE the buyout rumor last week. Still holding atm.

https://imgur.com/ah6k0vn

[bpcw]

If the deal doesn't go through then shares will probably drop so we're probably in gambling territory in the short term. Triplethought has decided to cash in on the unexpected recent gain which is pretty reasonable.

[Triplethought]

If the deal doesn't go through then shares will probably drop so we're probably in gambling territory in the short term. Triplethought has decided to cash in on the unexpected recent gain which is pretty reasonable.

Yes but of course I still lost money. I'm bearish over the next 7 months and in the interest of avoiding the "sunk cost fallacy" am willing to accept some losses to get into cash on the theory there will be another down leg (per SOL and due to Fed continuing to tighten and due to many stock experts who say we continue to have plenty of room to go down). Given COUP fundamentals I saw no reason for it to go up substantially next year

[bpcw]

If the deal doesn't go through then shares will probably drop so we're probably in gambling territory in the short term. Triplethought has decided to cash in on the unexpected recent gain which is pretty reasonable.

Yes but of course I still lost money. I'm bearish over the next 7 months and in the interest of avoiding the "sunk cost fallacy" am willing to accept some losses to get into cash on the theory there will be another down leg (per SOL and due to Fed continuing to tighten and due to many stock experts who say we continue to have plenty of room to go down). Given COUP fundamentals I saw no reason for it to go up substantially next year

You lost less than you could have so I get the decision!

[MarkD]

Reading online the acquisition cost is "likely" between $55 and $88 / share. I am willing to wait based on the accumulation prior to the announcement.

[Yodean]

https://imgur.com/ah6k0vn

Looks like it's forming a base (stage 1) in a high-volume support zone prior to taking off to the upside.

[chippermon]

https://imgur.com/ah6k0vn

Looks like it's forming a base (stage 1) in a high-volume support zone prior to taking off to the upside.

Yeah, if it breaks 66.51 then I see 82.72. I think I'll wait.

[Triplethought]

https://imgur.com/ah6k0vn

Looks like it's forming a base (stage 1) in a high-volume support zone prior to taking off to the upside.

Yeah, if it breaks 66.51 then I see 82.72. I think I'll wait.

Given the estimated takeout rate is estimated at $60-$70 I fail to see how it will go to $82 before the sale.

[jonnyfrank]

This is one risk of technical analysis. It does not generally account for macro and micro economic conditions OR the Fed and or proposed sale of the company involved. It is a great tool, no doubt, but there are so many variables to account for.

[Yodean]

This is one risk of technical analysis. It does not generally account for macro and micro economic conditions OR the Fed and or proposed sale of the company involved. It is a great tool, no doubt, but there are so many variables to account for.

Above passage by Bruce Kovner. He averaged ~90% CAGR during his 10 years at Commodities Corp.

Then he generated a 21% CAGR for 28 years at his own fund.

Oh, and before that, he was a cab driver.

Apparently also graduated from Harvard - but let's not hold that against him.