Tax Harvesting Season and its soon to be influence on the markets

[Centeron631]

HI Folks

Would like to know ur opinions on this. Could it be the catalyst that sends the market into a further downspin (and hopefully its last)? I think it may start in earnest at beginning of December if not end of November as investors start to focus on income taxes for the year. Are there any of our big downers that u would not take a chance on getting caught missing a very current upswing? thks for ur replies

[Yodean]

HI Folks

Would like to know ur opinions on this. Could it be the catalyst that sends the market into a further downspin (and hopefully its last)? I think it may start in earnest at beginning of December if not end of November as investors start to focus on income taxes for the year. Are there any of our big downers that u would not take a chance on getting caught missing a very current upswing? thks for ur replies

well, i haven't thought about this very deeply, but my initial response to this is that most investors have lost a lot of money this year, at least on paper, so i don't think tax loss harvesting will play as much of a role this year compared to previous years.

[LoriPrecisely]

HI Folks

Would like to know ur opinions on this. Could it be the catalyst that sends the market into a further downspin (and hopefully its last)? I think it may start in earnest at beginning of December if not end of November as investors start to focus on income taxes for the year. Are there any of our big downers that u would not take a chance on getting caught missing a very current upswing? thks for ur replies

Here is a good article with relevant information on this topic.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resourc ... oggle-gdpr

Key takeaways:
-tax-loss selling often occurs in November and December
-for Canada, the last day for tax-loss selling in 2022 is December 28
-in the U.S., the last day for tax-loss selling in 2022 is December 30
-from mid-November to mid-December, S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) stocks down more than 15 percent year-to-date underperform the index by nearly 4 percent. However, from mid-December to mid-January, those same stocks outperform the index by 3.6 percent.
-the second and third week of December as the ideal window to sell or buy at a low point.
This is well ahead of the “Santa Claus rally” — the period around the last week of December when stocks tend to rise ahead of a healthier market in January.

[Triplethought]

HI Folks

Would like to know ur opinions on this. Could it be the catalyst that sends the market into a further downspin (and hopefully its last)? I think it may start in earnest at beginning of December if not end of November as investors start to focus on income taxes for the year. Are there any of our big downers that u would not take a chance on getting caught missing a very current upswing? thks for ur replies

Here is a good article with relevant information on this topic.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resourc ... oggle-gdpr

Key takeaways:
-tax-loss selling often occurs in November and December
-for Canada, the last day for tax-loss selling in 2022 is December 28
-in the U.S., the last day for tax-loss selling in 2022 is December 30
-from mid-November to mid-December, S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) stocks down more than 15 percent year-to-date underperform the index by nearly 4 percent. However, from mid-December to mid-January, those same stocks outperform the index by 3.6 percent.
-the second and third week of December as the ideal window to sell or buy at a low point.
This is well ahead of the “Santa Claus rally” — the period around the last week of December when stocks tend to rise ahead of a healthier market in January.

So my intuition tells me you may be right. But I don't have enough experience to know whether tax loss selling will be high enough volume this year to impact the market. What I do know is some of my friends have mentioned "taking losses for tax reasons" and I'm considering doing an IRA to ROTH IRA conversion while my portfolio is down this year. Your rationale dovetails on top of SOL's already expected but necessarily unknown timing for "another leg down" and the fact he's triggering us to take substantial losses when the DOW climbs the wall of worry up another few points (Dow 34,750 or up about 2.2% from where it is now). I've left my sell trigger at Dow 34,500 for now. I personally plan to do my tax loss selling when the market is up just a little bit in the next 2 weeks to try to get out before the Fed meeting on Dec 14,15. I hope I'm not left holding the bag given the China unrest this morning but as Sol says "Mozy for the exits" rather than panic. China has put down unrest before and it doesn't feel even close to a "tipping point" for them. I plan to hold INTC and some other substantial losers that I have conviction in and dump the weird little unknown firms that Sol got us into that are doing poorly. (Fuck Teledoc). I'll probably dump the stuff I got myself into that was just stupid (Zillow and some others). My TI options plays will take care of themselves in January as it turns out they're all expiring worthless then. After that I'm hoping Sol can identify the MOBO or FOBO but I'm betting us "nervous nelly" types will be sitting on the sidelines in cash for most of 2023. In my case I'm buying a small business that "makes things" as a hedge against inflation and recession and the China/Taiwan debacle I think is probably coming in a couple years. I also just financed a mortgage on a small hotel up in Lake Tahoe but if travel gets hammered next year those guys might have trouble making the payments. I hope not as I really don't want to own a hotel, even at a 30% discount to market.

Having spewed all this pessimism I'll say I have a bet with Yodean that the S&P500 will be lower Dec 31st than it was Oct 1st and so far he's winning that bet handily.

[Yodean]

Having spewed all this pessimism I'll say I have a bet with Yodean that the S&P500 will be lower Dec 31st than it was Oct 1st and so far he's winning that bet handily.

Markets to the moon!

Just watch, I'm no loon.

It's always a fight,

To see who's right.

There's no God,

But it's good to pet a dog.

[harryg]

Markets to the moon!

Just watch, I'm no loon.

It's always a fight,

To see who's right.

There's no God,

But it's good to pet a dog.

OK, if you must:

There once was a chap called Yodean -
a formidable Trading Machine.
He had sufficient-sized xxxxs
to sell hundreds of calls -
the profits on which were obscene.

[Eric]

Oh Harry.

Don't encourage him.

[SOL]

Markets to the moon!

Just watch, I'm no loon.

It's always a fight,

To see who's right.

There's no God,

But it's good to pet a dog.

OK, if you must:

There once was a chap called Yodean -
a formidable Trading Machine.
He had sufficient-sized xxxxs
to sell hundreds of calls -
the profits on which were obscene.

Okay, Harry I will take a shot at throwing some words just for the fun of it


Are the markets going to the moon

Perhaps but not that soon

The PTB is right

Hence the masses can’t put up a fight.

Don’t join the race

As the odds are high that you might be slapped in the face

With that said, I rest my case

[harryg]

Markets to the moon!

Just watch, I'm no loon.

It's always a fight,

To see who's right.

There's no God,

But it's good to pet a dog.

OK, if you must:

There once was a chap called Yodean -
a formidable Trading Machine.
He had sufficient-sized xxxxs
to sell hundreds of calls -
the profits on which were obscene.

Okay, Harry I will take a shot at throwing some words just for the fun of it


Are the markets going to the moon

Perhaps but not that soon

The PTB is right

Hence the masses can’t put up a fight.

Don’t join the race

As the odds are high that you might be slapped in the face

With that said, I rest my case

Well it's good to know that if this investing lark doesn't work out, there is a possible future career as a rock group !

[harryg]

[SOL]

Hahaha, that's really cool poster. You have a knack for coming up with the darndest of concepts

[chippermon]

Harry that's really cool but please do tell. Why Lithuania? Is there something I'm missing or is it just because Vilnius is so pretty.

[harryg]

Harry that's really cool but please do tell. Why Lithuania? Is there something I'm missing or is it just because Vilnius is so pretty.

I did once have an interesting chat with a long-distance lorry driver out of Vilnius.

But, truth be told, you are missing nothing - the choice of venue / songs etc was only for fun.

In fact, the whole skit was a quick throwaway idea, but the more I think of it, the concept of a bunch of traders forming a rock group and singing about slow stochastics in a heavy metal style does amuse me.

I like it when things don’t “match” - “Sol and the Speculators”, for example, puts one in mind of the Platters or something similar, not a heavy metal band. Otherwise we could have called it Speculator Armageddon.

But they still would have played Vilnius.

[SOL]

Harry that's really cool but please do tell. Why Lithuania? Is there something I'm missing or is it just because Vilnius is so pretty.

I did once have an interesting chat with a long-distance lorry driver out of Vilnius.

But, truth be told, you are missing nothing - the choice of venue / songs etc was only for fun.

In fact, the whole skit was a quick throwaway idea, but the more I think of it, the concept of a bunch of traders forming a rock group and singing about slow stochastics in a heavy metal style does amuse me.

I like it when things don’t “match” - “Sol and the Speculators”, for example, puts one in mind of the Platters or something similar, not a heavy metal band. Otherwise we could have called it Speculator Armageddon.

But they still would have played Vilnius.

Harry, that begs the following question. Would normal ear drums be able to withstand the strange array of sounds emanating from all those throats? Me think maybe if we added an all you can drink moonshine option, then they might think we were the best thing since sliced bread


https://youtu.be/7my5baoCVv8

[Centeron631]

Ridily Diddly aside for a moment - maybe there really is a tax loss harvesting of a significnt amount going on right now which is interupting the manu'd upturn for a few weeks and which will restart in early January.