Interim Update Oct 27, 2022

[Yodean]

If Trump wins based on the emotion of perception, expect the markets to roar. However, I am not sure they will allow him to win.

My base case is that there is a 99.9% chance that Trump will not win in 2024.

He's lost that mojo he had for a period of time.

[jonnyfrank]

Agreed. His technical chart is falling apart.

[LoriPrecisely]

Stock prices are still enticingly low, offering us excellent entry points.

Meanwhile, earnings reports are coming in strong.

Plus, after midterm elections, the market typically rallies.
Q1 following a midterm year is even better than the previous Q4.
Year 3 of the 4-year Presidential Cycle (that’s 2023) is typically the most profitable of all 4 years for the market.... from Zacks.com

[MarkD]

Agreed. His technical chart is falling apart.

There is no value in participating in the election process atm. Definitely issues being managed which one side for wich both of the major parties are likely responsible.

Don't care about Trump. Never cared for most of the predecessors, especially hate the current situation in the executive branch, with minor exceptions for Khan and Cantor.

[SOL]

If Trump wins based on the emotion of perception, expect the markets to roar. However, I am not sure they will allow him to win.

My base case is that there is a 99.9% chance that Trump will not win in 2024.

He's lost that mojo he had for a period of time.

So, in essence, 100%.

[harryg]

If Trump wins based on the emotion of perception, expect the markets to roar. However, I am not sure they will allow him to win.

My base case is that there is a 99.9% chance that Trump will not win in 2024.

He's lost that mojo he had for a period of time.

So, in essence, 100%.

Difficult to tell what Alien N might be thinking, he doesn't often share his opinions

[Centeron631]

what is relationship if any of the Dow level sales and previous Nasdaq level sales in the updates and the expected near term topping of this manufactured run up in the markets?

[Yodean]

Difficult to tell what Alien N might be thinking, he doesn't often share his opinions

Passes the "deathbed" test - on my deathbed, I highly doubt I will regret anything I have said (or done) in the past. I may regret not having said (or done) certain things, though.

[harryg]

Difficult to tell what Alien N might be thinking, he doesn't often share his opinions

Passes the "deathbed" test - on my deathbed, I highly doubt I will regret anything I have said (or done) in the past. I may regret not having said (or done) certain things, though.

Well there is that. The regret of inaction being far greater than the regret of action and so on.



"Why wait until you are dying to tell people what you think - tell 'em to xxxx xxx now".




(bpcw can interpret that as 'find God', of course).

[SOL]

what is relationship if any of the Dow level sales and previous Nasdaq level sales in the updates and the expected near term topping of this manufactured run up in the markets?

We use the strongest Index as a trigger to close our longs, as we still expect a second correction. The suggested exit ranges represent resistance points.

[bpcw]

Difficult to tell what Alien N might be thinking, he doesn't often share his opinions

Passes the "deathbed" test - on my deathbed, I highly doubt I will regret anything I have said (or done) in the past. I may regret not having said (or done) certain things, though.

Well there is that. The regret of inaction being far greater than the regret of action and so on.



"Why wait until you are dying to tell people what you think - tell 'em to xxxx xxx now".




(bpcw can interpret that as 'find God', of course).

Oh ha ha ha Harry, I am a man of the world you know and know full well what you mean by it although seems a bit strange to go around telling people to 'have sex', each to their own mate!

[Budge]

Passes the "deathbed" test - on my deathbed, I highly doubt I will regret anything I have said (or done) in the past. I may regret not having said (or done) certain things, though.

Well there is that. The regret of inaction being far greater than the regret of action and so on.



"Why wait until you are dying to tell people what you think - tell 'em to xxxx xxx now".




(bpcw can interpret that as 'find God', of course).

Oh ha ha ha Harry, I am a man of the world you know and know full well what you mean by it although seems a bit strange to go around telling people to 'have sex', each to their own mate!

And there I thought he meant "Go forth and multiply"....as opposed to add, subtract or divide!

[Centeron631]

what is relationship if any of the Dow level sales and previous Nasdaq level sales in the updates and the expected near term topping of this manufactured run up in the markets?

We use the strongest Index as a trigger to close our longs, as we still expect a second correction. The suggested exit ranges represent resistance points.

Sol can u please address the question as presented. ie how they relate to the expected near term topping of this manuractured run-up - ie are they further out there beyond the second correction anad into the second correction comeback or are they to catch the topping or near the topping of this current run-up before the big fall? thks

[harryg]

As I see it your original question was answered clearly.

[Triplethought]

If Trump wins based on the emotion of perception, expect the markets to roar. However, I am not sure they will allow him to win.

My base case is that there is a 99.9% chance that Trump will not win in 2024.

He's lost that mojo he had for a period of time.

I agree that Trump's chances are not good. However if you're doing real risk assessment I feel giving him only .1% is unrealistic given he's far and away the front runner right now on the republican side. To me it's more like 85% chance he won't win.