2nd Year of an Even Decade ... Best time to Buy?

[Yodean]

I also understand the limit on your time. Maybe, someone else can answer certain topics of questions, as they occasionally do now.
This is a great group, and rather than separate the children into different classrooms, how about we keep the one-room schoolhouse affect so I can learn from y'all?

I tend to agree with Lori on this. Making a separate "advanced" group will make those not invited feel kinda bad.

Also, who is to judge who is "advanced" or not?

I say the following partially in jest: I'd rather be a "beginner" with a +1% return YTD than all the "advanced" traders here with, from what I can gather from public posts, private DMs, and private emails to me off-forum, 40% - 60%+ drawdowns this year.

As for the questions that come up with public presentation of "advanced" ideas, etc. ... if the TIT doesn't have time or interest in answering them, just don't answer them.

Let them hang out there ... others may eventually answer them, if they so wish.

No big deal if some questions aren't answered, imo.

Besides, there's the whole "beginner's zen mind" thing ... it's often good to have a mix of "beginners" and vets exchanging ideas ... sometimes the beginners remind the vets of something important, or help the latter look at some ideas in a new way.

Recent example: Lori mentioned something about the 4 stages of a stock's price action, etc., in the context of something from Weinstein's (?) book ... I had come across that idea/framework several years ago, and it has some merits, but I had kind of forgotten about it.

It triggered me to review that theory and now I am seeing the 4 stages (in different time frames) in a lot of stock charts. Helpful.

Also, you can just kind of form your own group on this forum by DMing specific subs. I know many of us have been doing that.

I as a general rule don't like official "groups" - really just a Herd, in a way - but it's often beneficial to exchange ideas with the "right" individuals, about certain topics.

For example, Harry, Nicolas and I have intermittently exchanged DMs, emails, etc. regarding COT data and how to apply them to the markets in combination with TA and MP, and so forth, but I wouldn't consider it an "advanced" group. It sort of evolved organically.

Just an exchange of ideas about a topic that the three of us find somewhat interesting to explore.

Other subs also randomly, but regularly, DM or email me with questions, etc. and I do my best to answer them.

So I don't think an official "advanced" TIT group is really necessary, but hey, that's not for me to decide.

'Sides, let's go with the Trend ... isn't it all about inclusion these days? LGBTQ etc.

Too much segregation into "levels," etc. "advanced or beginner" not necessarily that helpful.

Just show me a +ve CAGR!

[jonnyfrank]

SOL,

The other option is to have kind of a star chamber of the actives here and only allow them to post, while the rest of rest observe, read, and gain knowledge. Just make sure you put a "don't feed the animals" sign on the outside of the cage, lol.

Personally, I like that idea because it still includes everyone and those who feel left out or have hurt feelings can work harder and learn so they too can become part of the TIEPs (Tactical Investor Elite Players).

My 2 cents. Personally, I learn a lot from everyone even though I think my contributions are meh. I am kind of like a remora among sharks and I am fine with that here.

[SOL]

Ok, some of the suggestions sound fair, if I am not chastised for not answering, that is okay with me. After all, the advanced group is more about shooting ideas than preaching a certain code. I am always open to new ideas and thoughts.

The only reason I was entertaining the idea of an advanced group is that in the past individuals felt that I was ignoring them if I did not answer their questions. I hope one day not to be the number one poster here. I hope someone relieves me of that title.

[jlhooter]

SOL,

The other option is to have kind of a star chamber of the actives here and only allow them to post, while the rest of rest observe, read, and gain knowledge. Just make sure you put a "don't feed the animals" sign on the outside of the cage, lol.

Personally, I like that idea because it still includes everyone and those who feel left out or have hurt feelings can work harder and learn so they too can become part of the TIEPs (Tactical Investor Elite Players).

My 2 cents. Personally, I learn a lot from everyone even though I think my contributions are meh. I am kind of like a remora among sharks and I am fine with that here.

I agree with this approach. I like to see stuff I dont understand and my approach is to either ignore it because it is over my head or study it backwards and forwards until I think I have it, but one very important thing I learned is how to interject myself My general rule is to not even think of asking a question where I expect to be spoon fed. Once I venture down that path I lose respect from the group. I consider myself an avid observer. Never say anything in these types of affairs unless I have something to add or advance the discussion. I fully recognize those that slow it down and detract from the purpose and I strive to remain an observer; fly on the wall so to speak. So Sol do what you must, include me or not cause it still won't change the fact that I have found an outstanding service that has help to reveal what type of investor I am and can be. I think there is so much hypersensitivity with many here and outside this service that we can all lose our shit. For me I see all this mess behind us very soon and within 1-2 years. Pretty soon we will be saying how great things are as we start to turn massive profits. So I am just going to do my best and keep observing until I figure this out.

I did nothing in 2001 or 2008 and I turned out fine. Now I am going into 2022 with my eyes wide open. It was scary at first but I am able to learn and live with my emotions Even outside investing I am a better person because of this service.

Another consideration for this 'private club' is for Sol to charge a shit ton of $ for access cause all the other shit services do that and give nothing like we see here.

Said my piece; back to observer mode.

[DOCLUC]

SOL,

The other option is to have kind of a star chamber of the actives here and only allow them to post, while the rest of rest observe, read, and gain knowledge. Just make sure you put a "don't feed the animals" sign on the outside of the cage, lol.

Personally, I like that idea because it still includes everyone and those who feel left out or have hurt feelings can work harder and learn so they too can become part of the TIEPs (Tactical Investor Elite Players).

My 2 cents. Personally, I learn a lot from everyone even though I think my contributions are meh. I am kind of like a remora among sharks and I am fine with that here.

Good idea jonnyfrank
i do not get upset for "not being in the elite". it is not a problem for me (neither for my ego)
not being allowed to have the chance to learn something: this could upset me.

[bpcw]

By the way, not saying Plato didn't give us anything, he gave us some great stuff but I wouldn't trust a man who has a philosophy of discarding the weak.

I bet some would disagree, some would say the slogan survival of the fittest applies. What do i say, well i prefer to observe as no matter what anyone say's the outcome cannot be changed by words

I'm sure many will disagree, they're entitled to be wrong!

I believe in speaking out sometimes, silence can be construed as complicity, I know my rewarder!

[Jaz]

Interesting Parallel between 2006, and 2023 regarding rate hikes, and PE's.

Will the next rate hikes lead to a wash out bottom in the Nasdaq?

*I have used the S&P500 Information Technology Index, and it's ETF VGT as I don't have forward PE data for the Nasdaq from the past. However, both S&P500 Information Technology Index, and Nasdaq tend to trade in tandem. They have many of the same stocks. SO just pretend VGT = QQQ



And today, the Forward P/E of the S&P500 Index (VGT) is also 20, and Fed Funds Rate happens to the same rate. And to add to this, Fed Dot plots say Rates will PEAK at 5.25% in 2023. Just where there peaked and flat lined in 2006!



Nasdaq is still very much in a 'technical' downtrend. 200dma still has downward trajectory. 50dma is turning down. Expecting a short lived bounce from here. After that, Nasdaq looks like it wants to break support, for a final wash out bottom. After all, the two largest stocks in the Index (AAPL and MSFT) representing 20% combined, are yet to put in a decisive bottom.

[MarkD]

For your consideration - if you accept the odds, it's not inconceivable there is a bottom (double) or consolidation / continuation of a rally from the $100 level. Anything is possible. But you gotta play if you want to win.

https://imgur.com/FePBWTI

Here's a LT chart of MSFT before the year 2000 blowoff. This type of price behaviour occurs over and over again. Slow down the chart, think LT. Think investing time horizon. Think in terms of bets, odds. I deliberately chose the given dates to show what typically happens in a mid rise correction of some severity and duration. We actually may be at the beginning but the most important takeaway is home runs (not in baseball with the current juiced ball) are less frequent but will eventually result from good investments.

https://imgur.com/dqfHYlP

This is what shorts are up against LT.

https://imgur.com/MX7x9WO

Bet on the American economy. Europe is toast. Asia is very challenging, but it ain't over cause the fat lady (US Dollar) is still the Queen of currencies.

[Budge]

War...huh...yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing

Except for international gun runners...and US$, for a while anyway. China getting rid of US debt and buying gold, just clearing the decks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztZI2aLQ9Sw

[Yodean]

War...huh...yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing

Except for international gun runners...and US$, for a while anyway. China getting rid of US debt and buying gold, just clearing the decks.

China's got a serious USD shortage problem, so selling Treasuries to generate USD.

USA will still lead for at least the next 10 - 15 years ... minimum ... agree with the rest.

[SOL]

@jazz

The Nas appears to have bottomed in 2022. On a separate note, I would not be surprised if it dips below 10,088 momentarily and then ends the day or the week higher. As long as it does not close below 10,088 on monthly basis (weekly would also be ideal) then the outlook calls for higher prices over the next 6-12 months.

From TA perspective, long corrections usually trigger a head fake in several indices before a more permanent bottom takes hold. The SPX and Dow come to mind.

From an MP perspective, the markets are starting to rise on a wall of joy. Good news is pouring in regarding the inflation monster so that is something else to keep an eye on.

As the first corrective wave was strong and prolonged, the next wave is likely to be much shorter.

While many individuals are making either bearish or bullish forecasts. Bearish as in breaking down to new lows, and bullish projections as in breaking out to new all-time highs. Another possibility that is not being examined is rangebound action. There are subtle signs that the markets could remain rangebound (at least the Dow and SPX) for 24 to 45 months. In other words, there might be no new highs for a while. However, it would be a mistake to confuse rangebound action with mediocre returns; only ETF investors who buy and hold index funds as opposed to trading them and those that get into the wrong stocks will suffer.

Rangebound action is traders' dream come true as TA tends to work quite well, and in this case, the range is likely to be quite wide. However, for now, that is a hypothesis. Since you like looking at charts, take a look at the charts from 1970 to 1985

[Centeron631]

the Dow is now over 34200 - does this mean we start unloading stocks and portions as per the Jan 07 market update from TI?

[MarkD]

That's up to you, but I sold a bunch.

[Yodean]

There are subtle signs that the markets could remain rangebound (at least the Dow and SPX) for 24 to 45 months. In other words, there might be no new highs for a while. However, it would be a mistake to confuse rangebound action with mediocre returns; only ETF investors who buy and hold index funds as opposed to trading them and those that get into the wrong stocks will suffer.

Rangebound action is traders' dream come true as TA tends to work quite well, and in this case, the range is likely to be quite wide.

I dunno - the following aren't exactly household names, but a bunch of experienced, savvy investors/traders with good long-term CAGRs (including positive returns last year) have been calling for rangebound action in the indices for years to come - in some cases up to 10 years or more - these include Peter Grandich, Gareth Soloway, and Jason Shapiro, to name just a few. There are others.

As far as analogues go, I'm not a huge fan, but the 1966 to 1967 analogue (for 2022-3) for the S&P seems to be holding up rather well, thus far.

1966 = 2022 ... high inflation, S&P down about 20% going into midterms, Vietnam/Ukrainian military conflicts ... post-midterms, single digit significant rise in S&P to end of year ...

1967 = 2023?

Future's unpredictable.

But yeh, volatile, rangebound action very profitable for Spinning the Wheel (selling options). Been a gr8 start of the year for me, personally, after a horrific Shitmetah '22.

Nice to be able to generate consistent income through Wheeling, whether it's a bull market, a bear market, or a "transitioning" market.

[Yodean]

https://youtu.be/62KMWOYAcXQ?t=783

*****

This is an interesting video. Although "MasterTrader" Soloway has his fair share of cringe-worthy moments and tends to hide his losses publicly, his free videos are at times worthwhile to peruse. He's also somewhat entertaining.

At the timestamp around the 13-minute mark, he shares a technique for looking at options expiry to improve your chances at correctly guessing the price action of large, liquid stocks. Pretty useful, imo.

This is the website (free) for doing what he mentions: https://maximum-pain.com/options/tsm

The rest of the video is half-decent as well, especially for those who are interested in learning some basics of technical analysis. He covers precious metals, btc, eth, equity indices, some of the major tech stocks, and swing-trading in low volume markets, among other topics.

Fwiw, I have watched Soloway's stuff (twitter, yt) for over three years but have never subscribed to any of his paid services.

These days, if you already have some experience in the markets, it's quite possible to get decent financial data and learn to be a profitable investor/trader for free off zee internet.

Lots of Furus (false gurus) out there, though ... as always, the difficult part is separating signal from noise.