Sol and Team TI are back In action

[outof thebox]

SOL I know you had to deal with a lot of flack a few weeks ago, but it looks like you got your mojo back. I am surprised that many of those that were so critical before have not commented yet. I also find the new setup where the long term and short term outlooks are split to be very helpful and useful

You mentioned doing away with the medium to high risk portfolio in one of the updates or here in the forum. Would you consider creating a low risk portfolio with 10 or less plays.

https://imgur.com/gallery/A3DFQh4

So I say let's give Team TI a cheer

[MarkD]

I would add that until one entire cycle has completed, top to top, bottom to bottom, or in between, whereever you start following any advice, that's your baseline. I have yet to go through a complete cycle and already know at least one of the services will crush what I was doing previously. That said, I also now have developed a keener sense of when my prior strategy melded with TI services will do even better. Experience makes you better for sure.

[bpcw]

I don't think we should be judging TI by one day's performance, if Russia start nuking tomorrow that won't be TI's fault. TI predicted a pivot and a strong bounce so holding on for this has proven very worthwhile. I had been wondering whether to switch tactics to more commodities but hung on, was getting quite frustrated with a few stocks crashing 20% after earnings reports but today proved what a turnaround some beaten up stocks can have with Magnite going up 65% today, wish I'd put all my money into it now!

We need to judge TI on the long term which has been excellent over the years and let's hope that continues through this very difficult period.

Note to self, when you feel like selling shares and changing tact, the bottom is very near at hand but don't tell Yodean!

[SOL]

but today proved what a turnaround some beaten up stocks can have with Magnite going up 65% today, wish I'd put all my money into it now!

Note to self, when you feel like selling shares and changing tact, the bottom is very near at hand but don't tell Yodean!

Hindsight is such a wonderful gift, probably more like a curse. One can imagine all the wonderful things one could, would or should have done, but the outcome will remain the same. Once gone, it's gone.

Time is the only teacher that kills all its students without fail

As for gut instinct or inner feelings, they can be very powerful when combined with TA and MP.

Now, will the Big players allow the markets to bottom or is the prelude to something darker? The buffet before the blade. What the retail players are doing in the bond market is not a good sign as it does not indicate fear levels are not high.

[AstuteShift]

I think most got burned also with options.

Options is for pros, unless you do covered calls, even then I don’t recommend unless you got a good risk management system

In terms of stocks and the market, this is nothing. The more pain I see from others, the better the opportunity. It’s really that simple.

Blaming others is easy, however you always had the choice and decision to go with a play or not.

This game will always be a solo act, there is no WE in markets, only I

In my spare time, I’ve been making music with the help of AI. I’m embracing the trend, it’s amazing how AI is evolving. I feel like a kid in a toy store again lol

[outof thebox]

I think most got burned also with options.

Options is for pros, unless you do covered calls, even then I don’t recommend unless you got a good risk management system

In terms of stocks and the market, this is nothing. The more pain I see from others, the better the opportunity. It’s really that simple.

Blaming others is easy, however you always had the choice and decision to go with a play or not.

This game will always be a solo act, there is no WE in markets, only I

In my spare time, I’ve been making music with the help of AI. I’m embracing the trend, it’s amazing how AI is evolving. I feel like a kid in a toy store again lol

Right on the money Astute. Its always easy to point fingers but very hard to accept some of it. While others can guide us, they can't make us better traders, if we don't put some effort into the game.

Compared to 2008-2009 and perhaps even up to 2015, the average investor wants to be spoon fed, take on more risk than they can handle. They don't evaluate what would happen if things don't work out. You can already see the same investors are already changing and are ready to embrace more risk as the markets rise but will panic if things go south. I am not referring to this board, but several boards and reading general messages. My feeling is that by next week or even sooner, all these guys that were panicking will be looking for ways to squeeze more money out of this market.

[jonnyfrank]

Sol,

Can you help me (us?) out with a translation on this?

"Now, will the Big players allow the markets to bottom or is the prelude to something darker? The buffet before the blade. What the retail players are doing in the bond market is not a good sign as it does not indicate fear levels are not high."

It has a peculiar feel of "yes, we have no bananas today", and I want to make sure I understand what you are saying and what you think it all means. And, of course, if you think there will be some profit taking sooner or later on this mini rally....?

[Yodean]

Compared to 2008-2009 and perhaps even up to 2015, the average investor wants to be spoon fed, take on more risk than they can handle. They don't evaluate what would happen if things don't work out. You can already see the same investors are already changing and are ready to embrace more risk as the markets rise but will panic if things go south. I am not referring to this board, but several boards and reading general messages. My feeling is that by next week or even sooner, all these guys that were panicking will be looking for ways to squeeze more money out of this market.

Been busy with a funeral and a birthday celebration this week, involving the same particular family - strange times we live in.

Also busy with rolling forward positions in Spinning the Wheel with the recent rally, as well as accumulating btc, tmf, labu, gld, slv, etc. Sold some tech LEAPS (e.g. LRCX) for decent profits, also AMKR, I think. Lots of positions.

Financial services ultimately should be evaluated on long-term CAGR. Has to be transparent, and readily available for back-checking.

There have been many comments about the TIT's "long-term" track record, etc. but I have seen nothing objective or readily verifiable.

I have been with the TIT for several years continuously, and also a few years back in 2016-18 or so, from what I remember.

No CAGR reports, etc. No objective measures of how complete TIT portfolios performed relative to indices over a period of time, and so forth.

Always mentions by subs of specific trades that worked out really well, or a few predictions that were "right," but never mention of the long litany of option trades that expired worthless, or stock positions that went down 90+%, etc. and many completely wrong predictions that were later continually revised and re-revised.

I am actually not complaining - if I were, I would have left TIT long ago, and not waste my time here. Just stating the way I see things.

Feel free to disagree - won't affect my P/L, for better or worse.

The point is one should not "compare" financial services without some of the objective outcomes I have mentioned previously, good or bad.

In my personal Metaverse, you can have results or excuses, not both.

Like YoungYoda said, investing is a solo act. Cheering may be fun, but useless and kinda waste of time.

I take the parts of the TIT that have proven to be helpful to my continually evolving style of trading, and laugh my muscular ass off at the rest.

Pure followers will always be punished severely at some point, whether in the markets or outside.

Like my boy Bruce Lee said: Absorb what is useful. Discard what is not. Add what is uniquely yours.

[bpcw]

There have been many comments about the TIT's "long-term" track record, etc. but I have seen nothing objective or readily verifiable.

I have been with the TIT for several years continuously, and also a few years back in 2016-18 or so, from what I remember.

Your comments are fair and I think you're being real and honest so respect for this.

Being completely objective is a little difficult with TI as the service offers lots of data that has to be applied through reccomended general strategies and examples of how one might use the data. For example, TI will give buy and sell levels for a given stock but might state that it is high risk, each individual then has to decide whether to purchase the stock or not. I've realised that the service shouldn't be followed verbatim but the data used to form ones own individualised portfolio. Individuals on the forum that have been with TI for a long time have stated that it's longterm record has been excellent and we've had examples of great gains people have made over long terms, such as one person who made something like 4 million over 15 years from an initial investment of 100,000, I would say that's pretty good!

I think one of the reasons most of us love the service is it keeps us focused on the longterm view and that when things look bad, from a MP perspective we are actually in a position of great opportunity, it keeps us from fear when left to our own devices we might otherwise be running scared, selling low and buying high.

I do think however that from late last year the performance hasn't been great and that this has skewed people's view of the service but we must remember the black swans that occurred. It's obvious that the predicted mild correction that morphed into a mildER correction has been far greater than anticipated both in percentage and length of time.

[outof thebox]

Compared to 2008-2009 and perhaps even up to 2015, the average investor wants to be spoon fed, take on more risk than they can handle. They don't evaluate what would happen if things don't work out. You can already see the same investors are already changing and are ready to embrace more risk as the markets rise but will panic if things go south. I am not referring to this board, but several boards and reading general messages. My feeling is that by next week or even sooner, all these guys that were panicking will be looking for ways to squeeze more money out of this market.

Been busy with a funeral and a birthday celebration this week, involving the same particular family - strange times we live in.

Also busy with rolling forward positions in Spinning the Wheel with the recent rally, as well as accumulating btc, tmf, labu, gld, slv, etc. Sold some tech LEAPS (e.g. LRCX) for decent profits, also AMKR, I think. Lots of positions.

Financial services ultimately should be evaluated on long-term CAGR. Has to be transparent, and readily available for back-checking.

There have been many comments about the TIT's "long-term" track record, etc. but I have seen nothing objective or readily verifiable.

I have been with the TIT for several years continuously, and also a few years back in 2016-18 or so, from what I remember.

No CAGR reports, etc. No objective measures of how complete TIT portfolios performed relative to indices over a period of time, and so forth.

Always mentions by subs of specific trades that worked out really well, or a few predictions that were "right," but never mention of the long litany of option trades that expired worthless, or stock positions that went down 90+%, etc. and many completely wrong predictions that were later continually revised and re-revised.

I am actually not complaining - if I were, I would have left TIT long ago, and not waste my time here. Just stating the way I see things.

Feel free to disagree - won't affect my P/L, for better or worse.

The point is one should not "compare" financial services without some of the objective outcomes I have mentioned previously, good or bad.

In my personal Metaverse, you can have results or excuses, not both.

Like YoungYoda said, investing is a solo act. Cheering may be fun, but useless and kinda waste of time.

I take the parts of the TIT that have proven to be helpful to my continually evolving style of trading, and laugh my muscular ass off at the rest.

Pure followers will always be punished severely at some point, whether in the markets or outside.

Like my boy Bruce Lee said: Absorb what is useful. Discard what is not. Add what is uniquely yours.

Ok I will complain as I am always up for a good debate, sometimes I win sometimes I lose, its part of life

You are asking for too much. The guy many of us follow here from England does not provide any of that and many of the plays are down a lot and i mean a lot, but I generally see you being nice to him. Looking at the history there seems to be some sort of fallout you had with SOL. I read the post in AI and then your followup comments on what he did with the incident in Ukraine. It seems that your take was distorted. I bring this up because what was said in AI forum did not match your summary in the TI forum and there was some anger in your speech

I used to subscribe to over 10 very expensive newsletters and only two put up performance figures and no matter how hard i tried I could not match their figures doing what they did. They used the best exit price and the lowest entry price to determine their results. A lot of gaming goes into those statistics. read the book on how to lie using stats.

Darrell Huff runs the gamut of every popularly used type of statistic, probes such things as the sample study, the tabulation method, the interview technique, or the way the results are derived from the figures, and points up the countless number of dodges which are used to fool rather than to inform.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/512 ... Statistics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVG2OQp6jEQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vu7WKcW ... =QuickRead

Nicolas did a calculation and if you read that post, you would see he covers your question.

I joined in 2019 and have some older market updates going back to 2016. With that, I was able to estimate the past performance of the Market Update, focusing on the main Trend portfolio (both primary and secondary candidates.) Note that I used assumptions and made some simplifications, which overall I believe tend to underestimate the performance. I also only considered realized profits and losses on the year when the full position is closed. So, bear in mind those are back-of-the-napkin kinds of numbers for my own due diligence only. Maybe subscribers who've been with TI longer than I can confirm if it aligns with their own results.

So, looking at 2016-2021, I estimate the main Trend portfolio had a CAGR of about 25%, versus 15% for SPY as a benchmark. Past performances are no guarantee for future results, but 6 years is enough data to assess how the service is doing.

Now, if I look at my follow-up file for 2022, I have a breakdown of the YTD returns (note: I calculate returns on my weighted capital invested, so it doesn’t account for cash positions since I don’t have a fixed portfolio size, also, honestly, I don’t know how to calculate it differently!)

My Trend PF sits at -12%. Much better than SPY at -23%!
My Medium-to-High-Risk plays stand at -19%, which makes sense as they have a higher risk, yet still beat the index

.
viewtopic.php?p=13326#p13326

I say enough with this bitching OR use tea leaves or skull bones to improve your odds.. He has made many of us that have been far longer than you, a lot of money. This stance has been repeated by many others. Everyone gets years worth of back issues when they signup a simple look will prove that most of his picks and predictions came to pass.

Take some advice from Astute, he is much younger but seems to understand the nuances of investing well

Blaming others is easy, however you always had the choice and decision to go with a play or not.

This game will always be a solo act, there is no WE in markets, only I

In my spare time, I’ve been making music with the help of AI. I’m embracing the trend, it’s amazing how AI is evolving. I feel like a kid in a toy store again lol

To Sol's credit he has not responded to any of these negative attacks. There are two options for the bleeders and i don't need to state them. Investing is a SOLO act, others can help but they can't hold your hand, as that would turn this into a pussy show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLssnf3 ... LuqmanALSA

[Triplethought]

I have been with the TIT for several years continuously, and also a few years back in 2016-18 or so, from what I remember.

No CAGR reports, etc. No objective measures of how complete TIT portfolios performed relative to indices over a period of time, and so forth.

Always mentions by subs of specific trades that worked out really well, or a few predictions that were "right," but never mention of the long litany of option trades that expired worthless, or stock positions that went down 90+%, etc. and many completely wrong predictions that were later continually revised and re-revised.

I am actually not complaining - if I were, I would have left TIT long ago, and not waste my time here. Just stating the way I see things.

Feel free to disagree - won't affect my P/L, for better or worse.

The point is one should not "compare" financial services without some of the objective outcomes I have mentioned previously, good or bad.

In my personal Metaverse, you can have results or excuses, not both.

Like YoungYoda said, investing is a solo act. Cheering may be fun, but useless and kinda waste of time.

I take the parts of the TIT that have proven to be helpful to my continually evolving style of trading, and laugh my muscular ass off at the rest.

Pure followers will always be punished severely at some point, whether in the markets or outside.

Like my boy Bruce Lee said: Absorb what is useful. Discard what is not. Add what is uniquely yours.

Yodean, It is nice to see you embrace data rather than anecdote. when I've mentioned CAGR in the past I was scolded by subscribers who didn't believe that measurement told you much. And it's true that you can swing the number depending on when you measure, what time period you measure, and what part of your portfolio you measure. I had very complex spreadsheets for all this but gave them up 2 years ago as too time consuming. Anyway I generally agree with what you've said above. However keep in mind when we adapt the parts of TIT we make the results completely unpredictable and unaccountable.

[Triplethought]

but today proved what a turnaround some beaten up stocks can have with Magnite going up 65% today, wish I'd put all my money into it now!

Note to self, when you feel like selling shares and changing tact, the bottom is very near at hand but don't tell Yodean!

Hindsight is such a wonderful gift, probably more like a curse. One can imagine all the wonderful things one could, would or should have done, but the outcome will remain the same. Once gone, it's gone.

Time is the only teacher that kills all its students without fail

As for gut instinct or inner feelings, they can be very powerful when combined with TA and MP.

Now, will the Big players allow the markets to bottom or is the prelude to something darker? The buffet before the blade. What the retail players are doing in the bond market is not a good sign as it does not indicate fear levels are not high.

I show my first 2 lots of MGNI purchased at $21 and $14.70 per TI instructions (I think). Hard for me to celebrate being a bit less underwater than I was a few days ago. Still amounts to about a $2300 loss overall for me.

[bpcw]

but today proved what a turnaround some beaten up stocks can have with Magnite going up 65% today, wish I'd put all my money into it now!

Note to self, when you feel like selling shares and changing tact, the bottom is very near at hand but don't tell Yodean!

Hindsight is such a wonderful gift, probably more like a curse. One can imagine all the wonderful things one could, would or should have done, but the outcome will remain the same. Once gone, it's gone.

Time is the only teacher that kills all its students without fail

As for gut instinct or inner feelings, they can be very powerful when combined with TA and MP.

Now, will the Big players allow the markets to bottom or is the prelude to something darker? The buffet before the blade. What the retail players are doing in the bond market is not a good sign as it does not indicate fear levels are not high.

I show my first 2 lots of MGNI purchased at $21 and $14.70 per TI instructions (I think). Hard for me to celebrate being a bit less underwater than I was a few days ago. Still amounts to about a $2300 loss overall for me.

The point was that it's better than selling at the bottom which most do, in 2 days the stock went up 100%, hopefully we'll get a sustained rally from here. I've tried to be honest with my appraisal of TI, I agree that the performance hasn't been great in the last year but no one was complaining when we were kept focused on the amazing opportunity that covid crash was providing and don't forget the black swan events of war and sanctions. I'm not crediting TI for the MGNI turnaround of such magnitude but merely stating how a beaten up stock can come back so not always wise to capitulate with the crowd.

I don't actually mind your constructive criticism of TI as with Yodean but I see things a little differently, good forum for throwing ideas around and learning and remember Sol states he's not an expert but a mature student, we need to constantly adapt and learn in this changing market, the big boys are changing their tactics to keep one step ahead of the masses.

[Triplethought]

The point was that it's better than selling at the bottom which most do, in 2 days the stock went up 100%, hopefully we'll get a sustained rally from here. I've tried to be honest with my appraisal of TI, I agree that the performance hasn't been great in the last year but no one was complaining when we were kept focused on the amazing opportunity that covid crash was providing and don't forget the black swan events of war and sanctions. I'm not crediting TI for the MGNI turnaround of such magnitude but merely stating how a beaten up stock can come back so not always wise to capitulate with the crowd.

I don't actually mind your constructive criticism of TI as with Yodean but I see things a little differently, good forum for throwing ideas around and learning and remember Sol states he's not an expert but a mature student, we need to constantly adapt and learn in this changing market, the big boys are changing their tactics to keep one step ahead of the masses.

I agree that not selling at the bottom has been a key takeaway for me. Also, not ever buying at current market (putting in limit orders below where things are at today). and selling with limit orders too. And not letting the news cycle dictate buys and sells. All those things have been invaluable.

And if I didn't find value I would not be a subscriber and not interact herein. Hopefully my criticism remains constructive and not assholeish.

[SOL]

Sol,

Can you help me (us?) out with a translation on this?

"Now, will the Big players allow the markets to bottom or is the prelude to something darker? The buffet before the blade. What the retail players are doing in the bond market is not a good sign as it does not indicate fear levels are not high."

It has a peculiar feel of "yes, we have no bananas today", and I want to make sure I understand what you are saying and what you think it all means. And, of course, if you think there will be some profit taking sooner or later on this mini rally....?

Sometimes when I type fast, I make mistakes, mostly due to multi-tasking

The question now is whether the real players or the PTB or whatever you want to call them, feel that the markets have bled enough. If that is the case they will allow the markets to put in a long-term bottom. However, while negative is not overly negative, the crowd is also not extremely anxious, and it appears that the masses are trying to game the market. In other words, follow the PTB, and buy the crash instead of getting smashed. A lot of money has moved out of the bond market and money market funds into the market. Now, if this is a short-term trend it's not a big deal, but if the big players assume its a new trend, they can't allow it to gain traction, for it will dramatically change the landscape.

So they are feeding the crowd (the buffet) before the slaughter (the blade analogy).

There will always be bouts of profit-taking whether the markets are experiencing a relief rally or are in the midst of a new bull.

Short term, most likely, the markets will let out some steam around the middle of November 15-22 before trending higher. If they want to drive the crowd insane, then the ideal plan would be to allow the markets to rally into December, give them the Santa Claus rally and kill that rally before the end of the year or the 1st week of the new year.

Nothing has changed in terms of the markets experiencing a second corrective wave. At least not yet, and if anything should change, we will let everyone know the moment the outlook changes so that we all have plenty of time to adjust to the new change. But for now, nothing has changed.