Is the market just that bad?

[bpcw]

I've been a 101 stock investor for many years and was doing ok until I followed the TI plan. I am 70 years old and began here at Tactical Investing one year ago. I have followed the "rules" as close as possible, but in that time I am 13K in the red. Is it just the market is that bad? What have others experienced? I am very curious as I thought the signal from TI was that the last quarter of the year we were to see a major pullback. Obviously it has happened a whole lot sooner.
I am not a savvy investor like many here so don't rip me a new one. Not pointing fingers but trying to understand.

I can tell you I made good money in 2020 and I give SOL and team credit to give me the courage to jump in shortly after the COVID bottom when it was not at all obvious to me the trend would be back. I have given it all back in 21 and 22 following the TI program. I was $150K up and now have lost $150K since early 2021. So yes, IMO SOL lost a bit Mojo for sure. But I'd say it's mostly market conditions and prolonged downturn. Say 90% of our losses due to a very down market and 10 or 15% bad stock picks and options plays by TI. I believe TI was overly aggressive into tech (nasdaq) and marginal companies (Marijuana etc) based on chart patterns and market psychology and not based on fundamentals. But the bigger sin is not following the "fight the Fed" advise.

This question is similar to my question about market trend green arrow at top of newsletter still being up the entire time. Several people posted long term charts showing over years the market is going up despite the jog down this year. SOL replied similarly saying over long periods of time the market is up. I find this answer a bit of a cop out as such a statement is a big "no shit sherlock" and one of the big things we all look for TI to do is data that let us sell when downturns are coming. That was a fail. However, I also realize that no one has a crystal ball. Because SOL has always been so positive and bullish, when he started backing off on buys and saying the last quarter would have a downturn I decided in mid august to ignore his optimistic exit levels and sell anything and everything that was either green or only slightly red. This left me with a portfolio full of turkeys but I'm 60% out right now. I've decided "don't fight the FED" is the advice I will follow to guide my re-entrance into the market. It means I will probably buy back in AFTER the market has begun it's upswing but I'm OK missing the bottom by a little.

I would hold those loses thru this downturn (that's what I'm doing with the turkeys) and let them ride out the other side.

Having said this I plan to follow SOL's buy levels when the time comes to work back in. However this time I will also be allocating a bigger chunk of the portfolio to index funds where I don't have to actively manage. At this point I believe in the Vogel advice... that it's hard for an individual investor to beat the market so buy and hold index. But I plan to still dabble to see if Im wrong and I suspect strongly SOL will get his Mojo back.

@Triplethought, pretty fair and balanced I think, thanks for your honesty!

I would add that that stop losses weren't used effectively, we went in with 3 lots of eHealth and still down 93%, perhaps some of the high risk stocks shouldn't have even been part of the choices to purchase, I'm a bit surprised at some of the stock picks with negative p/e's, think that's fine when we're in a strong bullish run but with a prediction of a correction towards the end of last year should we have had these available, I haven't looked at company data previously because I've been relying on TI but will in future.

However, to be fair to TI, some things haven't been predictable without a crystal ball, a prolonged war, prolonged hawkish FED, manipulated sentiment figures that previously would have predicted a big bounce. Basically we're in a new era of manipulation that I think has taken Sol/TI by surprise at how quickly and the level it's come into play even though it was predicted by them.

[bpcw]

Just to add that if it appears I've flipped a bit over TI performance it's been because I don't mind constructive criticism that is balanced by understanding TI's excellent long term performance and the uniqueness of the current environment but not when some have been over critical and unbalanced because in the short term things haven't gone their way and not taken personal responsibility for the choices they've made.

[LoriPrecisely]

Just to add that if it appears I've flipped a bit over TI performance it's been because I don't mind constructive criticism that is balanced by understanding TI's excellent long term performance and the uniqueness of the current environment but not when some have been over critical and unbalanced because in the short term things haven't gone their way and not taken personal responsibility for the choices they've made.

I don't understand why you would accuse anyone of not taking responsibility for their choices. It appears to me that everyone is fully responsible for the consequences of their choices.

[bpcw]

Just to add that if it appears I've flipped a bit over TI performance it's been because I don't mind constructive criticism that is balanced by understanding TI's excellent long term performance and the uniqueness of the current environment but not when some have been over critical and unbalanced because in the short term things haven't gone their way and not taken personal responsibility for the choices they've made.

I don't understand why you would accuse anyone of not taking responsibility for their choices. It appears to me that everyone is fully responsible for the consequences of their choices.

I haven't named names and to be honest I lose track of whose said what but I do believe that because things have been difficult in the short term that they're have been a couple who have been quite critical of TI, it's there in the language used but Sol can take it and probably better to express and be challenged than to bottle it up.

Yes everyone is responsible for the choices they make but we live in a world where most want to blame other's and have an entitlement attitude. I would say there aren't too many like that on this forum and I couldn't name one so this is just a generalised comment, nothing personal.

[jonnyfrank]

At the end of the day, one needs to process what they read and gauge their level of risk. The aggressive approach to the second leg up, deciding to roll against the FED tide, and the general advice not to short were all way off. We are now one black swan event from a complete crash to 20k if not much deeper. The world is a tad upside down with insane minded busy bodies running major institutions, with the likes of Bernanke winning a Nobel Prize. I am concluding that I simply don't trust the insane creatures running things right now, and that is why I continue to short. I simply don't trust psychopaths, and would prefer to make money off of them by not trusting them. Unfortunately, I do not have a scientific approach to shorting other than playing off of volatility in certain sectors. I do see the semiconductor sector at risk right now, and SOXS has been playing well as a short. And if China does decide to mess with Taiwan while the west dumps resources into its Ukraine puppet show, SOXS may very well fly.

I enjoy SOL's work and now that I understand his approach, strengths and weaknesses the value of his newsletters is even greater. My greatest concern is the integrity of the data he uses, which we know is contaminated. We live in a time where government controls the media more than I can remember, and the propaganda flow is right there for everyone to see. If you go to Yahoo, for example, it is very, very difficult to find Ukraine war news now that Russia has taken a more aggressive approach. A few months back, the Ukraine War had its own special link on the front page. Even the WSJ is embracing the propaganda, with its recent picture of "dead Russian soldiers" lying face down on the pavement.

We live in a fallen world, and we must invest our money in a way that embraces and recognizes the current regime of liars and manipulators who don't care to hide their obtuse ways anymore.

[bpcw]

The problem with shorting is you are limited in your returns, if a market drops by 50%, you make far more by going long if it returns to it's original value, 100% in fact, that's why I think the big boys make most of their money going long stocks that have unlimited potential. Someone mentioned that when AMD last dropped 75%, it went up 88 fold to its last high. You can make money shorting but your time is limited and if using gearing then you don't want to overstay so as long as you are nimble then good for you.

Also its easy to look with hindsight and say this or that should have been done, investing over the long term requires discipline and patience realising that everything returns to the original high eventually, then some and then some more! One day the world finances will probably collapse but when that happens we won't be worrying about stocks.

Lastly near the bottom of any correction there are always a million and one reasons why it should go much lower, I remember exactly the same thing during the 2008 crisis with a comparisons to the 1929 crash everywhere, I bought into the bs but luckily was a gold bull at the time.

[MarkD]

If I short it's a short term trade.

I follow this guy on stockcharts.com (not a subscriber). His latest article may be of interest to some:

https://stockcharts.com/articles/dont_i ... x-222.html

[bpcw]

If I short it's a short term trade.

I follow this guy on stockcharts.com (not a subscriber). His latest article may be of interest to some:

https://stockcharts.com/articles/dont_i ... x-222.html

Shorting is definitely on the table and I do occasionally with commodities but I think a lot of retail investors are going to get caught out because they are probably going to buy into the financial markets are doomed rhetoric and when the markets surge they won't be prepared and will think it's just another dead cat bounce.

Thanks for the article.

[jonnyfrank]

Short like a cheetah, long like a snail.....

[bpcw]

Short like a cheetah, long like a snail.....

Yeah good motto!