The Trend is up?

[Budge]

So....is a quick rally up for some to unload on the immediate horizon? Yes, we all get that the bull will be back with a vengeance. However, some may be trying to unload so as to free up more cash to buy at "delicious" prices later. So....is there an anticipation of a rally up soon before the bears devour many to 20,000?

On a day when bombs are falling on Kyiv (apparently), one would have expected gold to do a bit better, equities to crash more, and oil to go up more.

Or money flood into those oh so safe US Treasuries -

[jonnyfrank]

Dang, nothing is "safe".

"In a world of insanity, always short".

[bpcw]

I continue to short and recently put some money into TMV. Until I get a clue that the FED will back off, I see no other way. SQQQ has gone from 31 to 61 in past few months so IMHO the idea of never consider shorting is complete hogwash. If the DOW falls to 20k, why not ride the true trend rather than fight it? As the saying goes, the trend is your friend. I keep raising my stop on SQQQ and right now it is 52, so my risk is minimal via shorting in this market. I think everyone needs to realize that the TI is bullish, and it needs to be digested with that bias in mind. The danger is not recognizing that. I am not a fan of the words "always", "never" and "forever", as they are words often used in fairy tales. When I read SOL's position on never shorting markets, I took a step back and have since proceeded with caution when digesting the TI. I think everyone should do the same, and continue to question his positions. We are truly in un-chartered waters with the US administration and the obtuse acts of "leadership". The markets don't like uncertainty, and we are awash in it.

My 2 cents. I think TI is very valuable and I find it to be very insightful, so this is not meant to be a knock on it.

I hope the FED does an about face soon. In the meantime, we need to face the fact that data releases matter, and the upcoming CPI will move the markets.

Don't think Sol has said to never short, in fact I recall him saying they might consider shorting. It's just that you need to be nimble as things can turn on a dime, and from a long term perspective you will be killed shorting.

Well done for making money shorting with SQQQ, I was considering this for the next expected correction/crash.

[jonnyfrank]

It is definitely a trend trade. All leveraged ETFs are explosive, so tread carefully. I have taken SOL's advice regarding watching the volatility, and it can be an advantage if you watch for it.

[Centeron631]

To be frank im having problems following all the recent ideas in the many blog topics :

Is Sol now saying that the interim notewothy rally that was suppose to occur in Q4 is off the table and same for the 2023 Q1 and Q2 alternatives?

Is Sol saying that there will never be an interim noteworthy rally except small 2-3 day blips up until the big fall off sometime later in 2023 (and TT saying even possibly into 2024) at which time the bottom will be put in? So also if we cannot predict much how will we know for sure when the bottom is put in and if a early jump up is the start of new bull or just a headfake?

Sol is now reversing and saying yes this time is now different than previously in history and if so how?

Ti and others keep talking about all the good companies that we own. Surely there are some bad companies that we own and i for one would like to know which ones ie no hope or just a tittle of hope of ever turning around as i might as well sell those off now as the bottom of the relevant markets apparently is still months if not years away and take the Tax Losses and put the cash into some companies that have a chance of huge gains.

I am still wondering what metrics/due diligence other than ta were used in selecting these good companies ergo good businesses in the first place ?

I am also wondering what sectors % wise we r into taking both the ai and mu stocks together? thks please have patience!

I don't think he is reversing course (at least from my perspective). From what I can see he was just explaining the Trend indicator to TTH and the long term outlook. First one was issued roughly I think end of 3rd quarter of 2021 (not 100% sure as I would have to look) where he started to talk about two corrections in 2022. And as for the 2023 bottom he mentioned that before but that is the long term outlook for 2022.

As for the short term outlook TI team is still expecting some sort of rally, but with reduced targets, based on the last MU.

I think the focus should be on MU updates. The forum is a place where ideas are exchanged

@Cinnamon et al: Just to clarify that i am not referring to just this Subject String but to Subject Strings in general - recent comments. I was aware of the arrow discussion here with TTH and fully understood what that was about including the explanation given. However thanks for ur comments and expression that TI is still expecting a run up as i thought in another string i saw recently Sol was agreeing with Eric that this time was indeed different (implying at least in my mind that the mini fairly significant headfake rally was off the table)- cannot find exactly where. What remains is i want to find out what the Bad businesses are so when there is somewhat of a headfake market rally caused by the Mkt controllers over the short term (hopefully before year end) that i have a list to dump as i have need to raise some cash.

[Yodean]

Or money flood into those oh so safe US Treasuries -

I think this year is the first time in history that during a significant equity market drawdown, that bonds have gone down more than stock indices.

On a brighter note, Dr. Copper, lumber, and BTC are showing somewhat impressive relative strength atm. Perhaps leading indicators of the rally to come?

Regardless, I'm definitely not shorting risk here.

[MarkD]

I have the requisite 10% and await buy signals to deploy. Every LT indicator I watch is at or beyond '08 bottoms. Let that sink in for a moment. Sol and team have their own perspective but we have to understand their are things no one knows. I have not been nervous at all like others have expressed. Frustrated once or twice but not losing sleep (considering the ankle injury things are peachy).

Unfortunately (key word "fortune"), more downside might come. All the sperts expect a bottom near $3k. With that many planning to jump back in my spidey sense says it may never reach that level. So I am monitoring shorter term indicators with a plan to put reserves to use in unequal lots of 10%/20%/30%/40k%. I know what I will buy and when.

Do I think it may have been prudent to sell more at the early part of this year. Perhaps. Some bear markets last months, some weeks.

If you need the money tomorrow, be careful. If you need the money ten or twenty years from now it's no biggie imo.

[Budge]

Or money flood into those oh so safe US Treasuries -

I think this year is the first time in history that during a significant equity market drawdown, that bonds have gone down more than stock indices.

On a brighter note, Dr. Copper, lumber, and BTC are showing somewhat impressive relative strength atm. Perhaps leading indicators of the rally to come?

Regardless, I'm definitely not shorting risk here.

Problem with bonds is how easy it is to have absolute confidence in the direction FJB et al are taking this country

It does look as if DR.HG and BTC are putting in a base. Lumber - occasionally check on Random Length Lumber - not sure it's finished being felled.

[Yodean]

Problem with bonds is how easy it is to have absolute confidence in the direction FJB ...

As you know, I don't take any POTUS too seriously - all political theatre, controlled opposition, distraction ...

The Military Industrial Complex, the U.S. DeepState, the Fed, on the other hand - these entities, and those behind them, do scare me. And of course, Hillary Diane Clinton, perhaps most of all.

12 minutes, watered down a bit, but pretty decent, fair summary of current events, lots of EU content:

https://youtu.be/7cdbRTFr8bg

[SOL]

I have the requisite 10% and await buy signals to deploy. Every LT indicator I watch is at or beyond '08 bottoms. Let that sink in for a moment. Sol and team have their own perspective but we have to understand their are things no one knows. I have not been nervous at all like others have expressed. Frustrated once or twice but not losing sleep (considering the ankle injury things are peachy).

Unfortunately (key word "fortune"), more downside might come. All the sperts expect a bottom near $3k. With that many planning to jump back in my spidey sense says it may never reach that level. So I am monitoring shorter term indicators with a plan to put reserves to use in unequal lots of 10%/20%/30%/40k%. I know what I will buy and when.

Do I think it may have been prudent to sell more in the early part of this year? Perhaps. Some bear markets last months, some weeks.

If you need the money tomorrow, be careful. If you need the money ten or twenty years from now, it's no biggie imo.

@ Mark; unfortunately, it takes experience to get to this level.

We have tried to illustrate this point, but I don't want to push it too much, as some might think I am trying to make light of the situation when that's the last thing on my mind. We have to direct our focus; look at the opportunity or disaster factors. It is impossible to maintain both states of mind. One loses sight of the opportunity factor if one focuses on the disaster factor.

I will post a chart under this topic or as an interim update (it's part of the next update), and Mark, it agrees with your assessment. A rare pattern is about to come into play. One of our key technical indicators is about to trade lower than it did during the 2008-2009 crises. This alone is a significant factor, but even more important is that if it does, it will trigger one of the critical ingredients to trigger the very rare FOAB (Father of all buys). At least one technical indicator has to trade to 12 years plus low (the longer, the better). If this indicator completes the pattern (it is very close to doing so), it will put in a 14-year low.


The media's Sole function is to make you focus on the wrong factors

It is used so effectively that the masses forget why they got into the markets in the first place; they got in because they were investing for the long haul. Suddenly they forget that they got into the markets to build a retirement egg or a nice cushion for the future and are directed to focus on the absolute dangers of losing it all because of the chaos being created on the short-term timelines. The big players count on this, and if anyone can pull up a long-term chart, this becomes more than obvious. No one needs to take us at our word; history speaks loudly and boldly on this topic. Furthermore, as the money supply has risen, the time it takes the markets to recoup those losses has dropped dramatically.

[Triplethought]

My base case is for October to end up higher than it started, for the equity indices ... many stocks are starting to diverge from the indices. Overall consolidation, range-bound markets with bullish bias.

Another big "leg down" may not occur until late '23, who knows?

If I had to sum up in two words what my investing tactic is at the moment, they would be: "judicious accumulation." I try to focus on the best stocks and sectors.

On a day when bombs are falling on Kyiv (apparently), one would have expected gold to do a bit better, equities to crash more, and oil to go up more.

I thought October might end up higher than it started too. I now believe that won't happen or even if it does the first 12 days of November will eliminate any Oct gains. I know you like to use me as a contrarian indicator so by all means buy the dips judicially this month. As for me I'm going to sit Oct out for any buys unless the VIX crosses 40. We'll sip champagne and compare notes after the Nov election and the next .75 basis point increase by the fed.

In addition to watching TI recommendations I'm watching and waiting for the VIX to cross the 40 to 44 range before I consider buying back in. I think that will represent the masses giving up (capitulation).

[Yodean]

I'm watching and waiting for the VIX to cross the 40 to 44 range before I consider buying back in. I think that will represent the masses giving up (capitulation).

The "selling climax" with the VIX > 40 representing "capitulation" is taught in books and indeed, often happens.

Another related saying is "early bulls get slaughtered."

With that said, too many noob investors are talking about this ... so there's a decent chance that it won't happen, or will be delayed for an indeterminate amount of time. Or will happen in an unexpected, non-traditional manner.

It's been an unusual year ... risk parity, which generally works, went down the toilet. Then of course, geopolitically lots of shenanigans, surprises, etc.

Anything can happen of course, and I'm often wrong in the short-term, but on balance, most of the risk is to the upside, atm, from what I can see, as far as equity markets are concerned.

[Budge]

I'm watching and waiting for the VIX to cross the 40 to 44 range before I consider buying back in. I think that will represent the masses giving up (capitulation).

The "selling climax" with the VIX > 40 representing "capitulation" is taught in books and indeed, often happens.

Another related saying is "early bulls get slaughtered."

With that said, too many noob investors are talking about this ... so there's a decent chance that it won't happen, or will be delayed for an indeterminate amount of time. Or will happen in an unexpected, non-traditional manner.

It's been an unusual year ... risk parity, which generally works, went down the toilet. Then of course, geopolitically lots of shenanigans, surprises, etc.

Anything can happen of course, and I'm often wrong in the short-term, but on balance, most of the risk is to the upside, atm, from what I can see, as far as equity markets are concerned.

Geopolitics front and centre

[bpcw]

A rare pattern is about to come into play. One of our key technical indicators is about to trade lower than it did during the 2008-2009 crises. This alone is a significant factor, but even more important is that if it does, it will trigger one of the critical ingredients to trigger the very rare FOAB (Father of all buys). At least one technical indicator has to trade to 12 years plus low (the longer, the better). If this indicator completes the pattern (it is very close to doing so), it will put in a 14-year low.

@SOl, would be nice to have a little clarity on the above statement. You seem to be indicating that a FOAB could be triggered quite soon. If so would this invalidate the prediction that we will get a rally and then a strong correction to new lows well below our current ones and instead we will hit a long term bottom and keep going up to ATH's and beyond?

Obviously either way monitoring sentiment and other data will be essential as things progress.

[SOL]

A rare pattern is about to come into play. One of our key technical indicators is about to trade lower than it did during the 2008-2009 crises. This alone is a significant factor, but even more important is that if it does, it will trigger one of the critical ingredients to trigger the very rare FOAB (Father of all buys). At least one technical indicator has to trade to 12 years plus low (the longer, the better). If this indicator completes the pattern (it is very close to doing so), it will put in a 14-year low.

@SOl, would be nice to have a little clarity on the above statement. You seem to be indicating that a FOAB could be triggered quite soon. If so would this invalidate the prediction that we will get a rally and then a strong correction to new lows well below our current ones and instead we will hit a long-term bottom and keep going up to ATH's and beyond?

Obviously either way monitoring sentiment and other data will be essential as things progress.

If the above situation comes to pass, it will also fulfill only one of the requirements. You can't predetermine the dates on either MOAB or FOAB. Certain things have to fall into place, so the signal is either triggered or not. The potential of a FOAB does not invalidate the short-term outlook. It just means that if the markets follow the original long-term pattern, as a bonus, we could get a FOAB. Keep in mind that the chart posted is a monthly chart and not a daily chart

For the markets to rally in the short term, they need some sliver of good news, not a whole lot. Even the Fed just stating that while they will continue to raise rates they will be cognizant of the potential to trigger a crisis in the bond markets or force pension funds to sell shares, etc would suffice.