Are we seeing the head fake?

[Triplethought]

Looking at indices (such as Nasdaq) we see a 2 day strong recovery. Makes me wonder if this is the beginning of SOL's "head fake" where a temporary run up draws more people in before another downward leg. If so, and if runup is driven by the rumored "shadowy players" I think the run up will have to continue thru at least October for enough people to notice and jump back into the market. I personally think it would take shadowy players with a lot of money and a lot of collaboration to pull that off.

The smart play might to be watch carefully for the build up and sell off a few things to take profits (or to minimize some of our losses).

But...I've noticed that 2 consecutive days of 2-3% gains are often followed by a few sideways or down days, so if it's not "shadowy players" but rather normal market action we should see a down day tomorrow.

Congrats to those who bought in earlier this week to plays like AMD etc.

[Yodean]

Looking at indices (such as Nasdaq) we see a 2 day strong recovery. Makes me wonder if this is the beginning of SOL's "head fake" where a temporary run up draws more people in before another downward leg. If so, and if runup is driven by the rumored "shadowy players" I think the run up will have to continue thru at least October for enough people to notice and jump back into the market. I personally think it would take shadowy players with a lot of money and a lot of collaboration to pull that off.

The smart play might to be watch carefully for the build up and sell off a few things to take profits (or to minimize some of our losses).

But...I've noticed that 2 consecutive days of 2-3% gains are often followed by a few sideways or down days, so if it's not "shadowy players" but rather normal market action we should see a down day tomorrow.

Congrats to those who bought in earlier this week to plays like AMD etc.

Future's unknowable, anything may happen, but something to keep in mind is that every bull run, long or short, starts off as a "short covering, bear market rally" ...

[chippermon]

If so, and if runup is driven by the rumored "shadowy players" I think the run up will have to continue thru at least October for enough people to notice and jump back into the market. I personally think it would take shadowy players with a lot of money and a lot of collaboration to pull that off.

I personally feel they have both. In fact they almost have too much money. They need to suck in more fools and their money and the best way is to have their trained chimps, I mean masses, buy the dip for one last time.

[Budge]

Head fake - I believe so.

[Yodean]

*****

Then again, YoungAnakin is my 2nd favourite contrarian sentiment indicator here ...

Stocks to the moon! Or at least the space station ...

[MarkD]

That 74 data is interesting for sure as it coincides with the pattern noted by Sol's team regarding this rally.

[Yodean]

That 74 data is interesting for sure as it coincides with the pattern noted by Sol's team regarding this rally.

The data from a bunch of other years is also "interesting" ... this is curve-fitting at its finest.

Imo, I wouldn't get stuck on one particular thesis, and trying to fit a bunch of data to the cookie cutter.

Just my2c.

[SOL]

Looking at indices (such as Nasdaq) we see a 2 day strong recovery. Makes me wonder if this is the beginning of SOL's "head fake" where a temporary run up draws more people in before another downward leg. If so, and if runup is driven by the rumored "shadowy players" I think the run up will have to continue thru at least October for enough people to notice and jump back into the market. I personally think it would take shadowy players with a lot of money and a lot of collaboration to pull that off.

The smart play might to be watch carefully for the build up and sell off a few things to take profits (or to minimize some of our losses).

But...I've noticed that 2 consecutive days of 2-3% gains are often followed by a few sideways or down days, so if it's not "shadowy players" but rather normal market action we should see a down day tomorrow.

Congrats to those who bought in earlier this week to plays like AMD etc.

Headfake has to be strong, not just something that takes place for one or two days. In this case, a head fake would mean the indices (at least some of them) would have to test their Aug highs. Head fakes are usually known after the fact because they are so strong, individuals assume a new bull is underway

[Centeron631]

I believe that a manipulated head fake needs to arouse a semi - euphoria in the minds of the herd to work as the manipulators expect it to work if im getting the explanation of Sol (I also take it the manipulators will short the market near the top of this manufactured run-up). However it will have to work tres fast and hard if it is going to happen before the next rate hike in early November (unless the Fed softens on the 75 basis points). I take it that Sol's ranges in the Dow and Nasdaq for sells on the updates may have nothing to do with an expected head fake forecast?

[chippermon]

I believe that a manipulated head fake needs to arouse a semi - euphoria in the minds of the herd to work as the manipulators expect it to work if im getting the explanation of Sol (I also take it the manipulators will short the market near the top of this manufactured run-up). However it will have to work tres fast and hard if it is going to happen before the next rate hike in early November (unless the Fed softens on the 75 basis points). I take it that Sol's ranges in the Dow and Nasdaq for sells on the updates may have nothing to do with an expected head fake forecast?

The FED may be priming the pump as we speak. There has been a somewhat new narrative of a pivot by the FED bandied about, in regards to backing off on the projected rate hike, concerning the poor numbers in the ISM manufacturing for Sep and we have the ISM Services survey up tomorrow (probably more important since US doesn't make much anymore) and non farm payrolls on Friday which may surprise. A couple of well placed thoughts placed in peoples heads by the bank could lead to enough speculation that the situation is more under control and they don't want to squash the economy too much, hence the perceived backing off.

Therefore, mini rally in equities, DXY retreat, then bring the hammer down. November? December?????
Or not.

[Cinnamon]

I believe that a manipulated head fake needs to arouse a semi - euphoria in the minds of the herd to work as the manipulators expect it to work if im getting the explanation of Sol (I also take it the manipulators will short the market near the top of this manufactured run-up). However it will have to work tres fast and hard if it is going to happen before the next rate hike in early November (unless the Fed softens on the 75 basis points). I take it that Sol's ranges in the Dow and Nasdaq for sells on the updates may have nothing to do with an expected head fake forecast?

The FED may be priming the pump as we speak. There has been a somewhat new narrative of a pivot by the FED bandied about, in regards to backing off on the projected rate hike, concerning the poor numbers in the ISM manufacturing for Sep and we have the ISM Services survey up tomorrow (probably more important since US doesn't make much anymore) and non farm payrolls on Friday which may surprise. A couple of well placed thoughts placed in peoples heads by the bank could lead to enough speculation that the situation is more under control and they don't want to squash the economy too much, hence the perceived backing off.

Therefore, mini rally in equities, DXY retreat, then bring the hammer down. November? December?????
Or not.

Markets were always manipulated but it seems that any and all traces of free market forces have been removed. This rally might have more legs as the dollar is pulling back, energy prices are much lower and sentiment is bearish. Unless the Fed purposely starts hitting hard again. It makes sense that they allow this market to rally before knocking everyone out. I am going to lightening up and patiently wait for the next buy signal. Let's hope third time is a charm, this is the markets third attempt to rally.

[outof thebox]

I believe that a manipulated head fake needs to arouse a semi - euphoria in the minds of the herd to work as the manipulators expect it to work if im getting the explanation of Sol (I also take it the manipulators will short the market near the top of this manufactured run-up). However it will have to work tres fast and hard if it is going to happen before the next rate hike in early November (unless the Fed softens on the 75 basis points). I take it that Sol's ranges in the Dow and Nasdaq for sells on the updates may have nothing to do with an expected head fake forecast?

The FED may be priming the pump as we speak. There has been a somewhat new narrative of a pivot by the FED bandied about, in regards to backing off on the projected rate hike, concerning the poor numbers in the ISM manufacturing for Sep and we have the ISM Services survey up tomorrow (probably more important since US doesn't make much anymore) and non farm payrolls on Friday which may surprise. A couple of well placed thoughts placed in peoples heads by the bank could lead to enough speculation that the situation is more under control and they don't want to squash the economy too much, hence the perceived backing off.

Therefore, mini rally in equities, DXY retreat, then bring the hammer down. November? December?????
Or not.

Markets were always manipulated but it seems that any and all traces of free market forces have been removed. This rally might have more legs as the dollar is pulling back, energy prices are much lower and sentiment is bearish. Unless the Fed purposely starts hitting hard again. It makes sense that they allow this market to rally before knocking everyone out. I am going to lightening up and patiently wait for the next buy signal. Let's hope third time is a charm, this is the markets third attempt to rally.

I am betting man so given the two take downs plus back to back surges in bearish sentiment readings, I think overall the markets could rally over two weeks. I bought more TQQQ, calls on DIA last Friday. I scaled out a bit after the rally in August. Will try to move to 50% plus cash before this rally ends; well that's my plan now lets see what happens in real time

[Do-or-Die]

*****

Then again, YoungAnakin is my 2nd favourite contrarian sentiment indicator here ...

Stocks to the moon! Or at least the space station ...

I think YoungAnakin record is not all that terrible. He plays conservative and appears to quite a successfull businessman . You don't make money if you don't have some serious financial acumen. Who is your number one indicator

Now for some other related data, since you are talking about contrarian indicators (I hope you don't take it the wrong way)

But you are also a good contrarian indicator of sorts. You held or bought bitcoin early in the cycle this year and kept buying as it fell, so if one shorted while you were going long earlier they would have done well

You jumped early into Chinese stocks also quite early in the cycel they took a wallop so doing the opposite could have paid.

I am sure you will do well in the long run, just saying you could also be viewed as a contrarian indicator

I think depending on the timeline anyone could be used as a contrarian indicator. Hey I sometimes use myself as one. I use my notes to to pinpoint turning points, When it looks like I am getting nervous or scared, usually a bottom is near. For example last week, my notes reveal that my anxiety surged, so decided to force myself to buy some companies AMD, TTD, QCOM, QQQQ and a bit of TQQQ.

[Yodean]

Who is your number one indicator

just saying you could also be viewed as a contrarian indicator

1) my #1 contrarian indicator is someone I will keep to myself ... worth her/his/its weight in gold, or even BTC ... it's prolly not who/what you think.

2) I'm #3 on my own contrarian indicator list - I step aside, adopt the role of the observer, and scan through my old posts as well as my journal entries, and use that sentiment info for the future - indeed, I take the bronze medal here.

3) BABA, BIDU, etc. - high risk, I started buying quite awhile ago on the recommendation of someone a lot of us here also follow; the difference was I kept buying those two assets as they went lower - and I actually sold a bit whenever they had short rallies above my cost basis; I eventually SCC'd both of those positions at above my overall cost basis for a small profit, and let them get called away (think it was when BABA was in the high 120s, did a bit better with BIDU);

it was a minor miracle; I didn't want to say anything at the time because I know a lot of subs also hold BABA, BIDU, TCEHY; I still have a position in TCEHY, which is down significantly, but I don't need the money so I will hold it - it's unfortunate it's not optionable; also started accumulating FXI slowly with Spinning The Wheel and buying shares outright more recently;

4) Cryptos - I sold 40% of my GBTC when BTC went above 60k (when it broke to aths the 2nd time last year) and took six-figure USD profits - I actually made this public in real-time in another forum, you can prolly find my posts on this, if they haven't been erased at that time; this was based on my EBI reading; of course, I had to pay a shi*tload of tax on that one trade alone, which was somewhat annoying;

I've held and added to my crypto. holdings since, based on my EBI - I've grown to increasingly trust this indicator, as it takes years to really see if it works, and how best to use it, which levels to fire and sell, how long to wait at certain levels, how to correlate EBI with other indicators, etc. ... always a work in progress, but using it on balance has been profitable;

overall, although my current crypto. holdings are down big, all of them were purchased with previous crypto. profits, so I am okay with that; you Dance With Spears, you will get cut at some point;

high risk of course, but BTC and ETH have very bright futures; COIN should as well, and I only bought COIN on the recommendation of the previously mentioned advisor a lot of us follow;

So yeh, I don't mind being my own contrarian indicator - I'm #3 on my own list.

Ultimately, the only feedback I need is my own P/L - I had a terrible year investing-wise thus far, but my net worth is still very good, I haven't had to change my lifestyle in any way, and my overall CAGR since 2004 isn't horrible.

Most importantly, I've learned a lot in the last few years, and am having a lot of fun doing this as my "job," despite the massive drawdown. I actually look forward to getting up in the morning and going to "work," whether my stock screens are all red or not.

Like I said, talk's cheap and fun, but the P/L - risk-adjusted CAGR over time - net worth, and how much fun you're having are the only things that matter to me, in terms of investing/trading.

And as always, health before wealth, love before law.

[Centeron631]

The add thought to my previous posting - how do u guys think that tax loss harvesting as we get into December will play out to affect the market. In just looking over some sites as a Canadian i see that there are some differences between the usa ira and the canadian cra : I just read that usa if i read accurately is limited to $3000 per year (if that is so it is not much and therefor overall probably does not affect the markets soo much? and yet im fairly certain that there is no limit in Canada no matter which stock market). Also from my readings Americans only set off 15% while in Canada if in top tax bracket of 50% the savings in tax is 25% but only useable against other capital gains.
I also learnt for the first time that it is in effect only a tax postponement in both countries in that whatever one loses eg say 10,000 on an investment of 20000 the investment u replace it with will have a cost base of 10k so u will repay the previously saved tax when u sell the replacement investment.

Although ive actually faired not too well a few times in the past (not always) i may consider as i need to raise some cash for another private venture very soon and certainly not too many in the green stocks in my prtfl right now as i mull over what to sell. Whatever u do check with ur tax professtionals as as u can see with all the ?'s im far far from a tax adviser. thks ps. one suggested strategy is to do it shortly after a stock makes a huge drop no matter the time of year and ofcourse if u have already held the stock for more that 30 days u can buy it back if u want 30 days after the sale (there r also the commissions , buy-sell spreads etc so that too can eat into the bottom line).