platinum

[Yodean]

@Emperor Sol:

-platinum hit your recommended sell point recently at a decent profit, and indeed FWIW I did sell about 33.3% of my outsized position;

-with that said, to my beleaguered eyes, the technical breakout action in platinum has been quite breathtaking, and from a horde psychology perspective, in the MSM not much is being said about this metal, comparatively speaking;

-should we continue to hold a portion of platinum for upside potential (i.e. challenging 1300s+?)?

[SOL]

Take a look at the monthly chart below and decide for yourself. I view the stock market as an extension of the illusory life most people lead. I have no emotional attachment to it. one way to think of it is like imagining a fat cat looking at the mouse that crawls right next to it and letting it pass by because its full and does not need to hunt the poor animal just for the sake of hunting it





The monthly chart of Platnium with some new Indicators that we are testing

[Yodean]

The monthly chart of Platnium with some new Indicators that we are testing

Thanks Sol.

This chart is quite instructive, and visually intuitive.

May also indirectly correlate with an impending USD bottom and subsequent rally.

[bpcw]

I was going to say jokingly/sarcastically that it's time to buy then! I don't think we'll see such a convincing couple of charts that are screaming sell, take your profits and run/celebrate with a nice cup of tea!

[Investor87]

Take a look at the monthly chart below and decide for yourself. I view the stock market as an extension of the illusory life most people lead. I have no emotional attachment to it. one way to think of it is like imagining a fat cat looking at the mouse that crawls right next to it and letting it pass by because its full and does not need to hunt the poor animal just for the sake of hunting it

Sounds like it might be a nice time to buy a put on platinum. Any suggestions of an ETF that would work? I looked at PPLT, PGM and PLMT but they don't seem to offer option trading. Maybe SBSW? Would love any thoughts.

[Yodean]

Sounds like it might be a nice time to buy a put on platinum. Any suggestions of an ETF that would work? I looked at PPLT, PGM and PLMT but they don't seem to offer option trading. Maybe SBSW? Would love any thoughts.

I would be extremely careful about shorting platinum. These are unusual times we live in, and momentum trumps almost everything right now, including aesthetically-pleasing-appearing charts.

By my own form of technical analysis, there is still a >20% - 30% probability that platinum breaks 1300 in the near future.

No, it's not a great time to start buying platinum, but shorting it is highly risky. Better to deploy funds elsewhere.

Yes, it's always good to take some profits, and capital preservation should be the top priority.

Time will tell.

[Investor87]

Sounds like it might be a nice time to buy a put on platinum. Any suggestions of an ETF that would work? I looked at PPLT, PGM and PLMT but they don't seem to offer option trading. Maybe SBSW? Would love any thoughts.

I would be extremely careful about shorting platinum. These are unusual times we live in, and momentum trumps almost everything right now, including aesthetically-pleasing-appearing charts.

By my own form of technical analysis, there is still a >20% - 30% probability that platinum breaks 1300 in the near future.

No, it's not a great time to start buying platinum, but shorting it is highly risky. Better to deploy funds elsewhere.

Yes, it's always good to take some profits, and capital preservation should be the top priority.

Time will tell.

Thanks so much for the wisdom! Really, this forum keeps me grounded.

[SOL]

We now have 150 oversold stocks on our stock monitoring list. When it hits 200, it would mean that a minor buy signal is triggered and we would then deploy 1/3rd of our funds into new positions.

As we stated early last year this is a mentally disturbed market, to be more precise, its a market operated by mentally disturbed beings and as such what used to work will not always work going forward. So we are either going to get a nice correction or certain sectors will implode.

Doing nothing takes more effort then jumping in and snapping the wrong investment at the wrong time.

[Eric]

Thanks so much for the wisdom! Really, this forum keeps me grounded.

Probably the best quote I've ever read about shorting came from our very own Guru... (I am quoting from memory)

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" -SOL

That's not to say I never take a bearish position but I only do so in a way that limits my potential losses (or caps my potential gains).

Doing nothing takes more effort then jumping in and snapping the wrong investment at the wrong time.

Ain't that the truth Ruth! Like an impatient level 1 dumbass I sold a couple $70 puts on QS when it was trading around $130-something... fast-forward a little and I'm the not-so-proud papa of 200 shares of QS for $14,000 (minus the premium for selling the puts and minus the premium from selling covered [short] calls against those 200 shares). I think I can turn that trade around but it's going to take more work than I would like and a little bit of luck.

[stefk]

https://matthey.com/en/news/2021/pgm-ma ... ruary-2021

Outlook for 2021, all pgm

Pgm supply and demand are forecast to bounce back in a V-shaped recovery in 2021.
Autocatalyst demand will recover strongly, on higher car output and stricter emissions limits for trucks in China.
Industrial consumption will remain robust, with pgm use in chemicals set to reach an all-time high.

[bpcw]

Sounds like it might be a nice time to buy a put on platinum. Any suggestions of an ETF that would work? I looked at PPLT, PGM and PLMT but they don't seem to offer option trading. Maybe SBSW? Would love any thoughts.

I would be extremely careful about shorting platinum. These are unusual times we live in, and momentum trumps almost everything right now, including aesthetically-pleasing-appearing charts.

By my own form of technical analysis, there is still a >20% - 30% probability that platinum breaks 1300 in the near future.

No, it's not a great time to start buying platinum, but shorting it is highly risky. Better to deploy funds elsewhere.

Yes, it's always good to take some profits, and capital preservation should be the top priority.

Time will tell.

Agreed Yodean, there's a difference between looking at a chart and selling a position to realise profits and going short. What is overbought can become very overbought and then extremely overbought etc. I think selling 100% of platinum at this stage would be very reasonable or one could decide to sell a percentage and see if it goes higher, determining stop loss and limit levels, but don't work from fear or greed, be disciplined with target levels.

My personal choice would be to sell 100%, have a mini celebration and then sit patiently looking for the next opportunity to deploy the funds into something that is oversold.

[langdj]

@SOL

Your boy the "Plunder from Down Under" seems to like LIT and URA (Lithium and Uranium) what are your thoughts?

[Yodean]

From my vantage point, uranium appears to be in the early stages of a bit of a "stealth" bull market. There's a slowly-building narrative that nuclear energy is going to be necessary in the "New Normal Greenish" world we have entered, but the mainstream horde hasn't quite accepted the safety of uranium.

It also helps that I've been building a position in Cameco and it's already up 21% or so. It's a long-term HODL position for me, barring some black swan event.

[langdj]

That does help Yodean. Thanks

[SOL]

@SOL

Your boy the "Plunder from Down Under" seems to like LIT and URA (Lithium and Uranium) what are your thoughts?

We all take different views. He is probably focussing on the super trend. The market update focuses on Position trading, while we can hold a position for several years in some cases, we usually get in when the indicators on the monthly charts are oversold and close the position when they are trading in the extremely overbought ranges. Then wait for a pullback and if that play beats plays in other sectors we will re-open a position. As you know there is more than one way to skin a cat

There are also a ton of potential plays out there and if you get into all of them or get into every sector that looks good, you might end up being like the donkey that kept looking for a better haystack that he eventually died from hunger.

Our indicators are trading slightly above the neutral ranges, so while it could run higher, the time to have got in was early in 2020 and towards the end of 2020.

From a risk to reward perspective Airline stocks look better, they are trading in the insanely oversold ranges and sooner or later this COVID hysteria will subside.