BABA and TSLA

[Triplethought]

An even better bet imho is just buying UUP calls, market tanks and the masses and everyone go to the dollar for safety.

Macro bets like this is like chess and eventually it will be check mate for the astute and the dirt for the clueless masses

Astute, I went and stared at UUP and have the following observations: UUP has declined 10% since the March high. Which means the dollar has devalued against those 6 foreign currencies by 10%. Which is consistent with what SOL has been telling us - the FED is in a race to the bottom to devalue the dollar.

Secondly, this explains the 10-15% price increases I've seen for steel and aluminum in my machine shop business. Most of this comes from off shore these days, so foreign goods would be more expensive. I've been baffled by this increase since CPI is supposedly a modest 1.2%

Third and most important question to you: There doesn't seem to be enough volume in UUP options to make it a good idea to buy a CALL on them. The calls exist, but literally bid and ask prices are zero (I looked at a Call for Jan 2022 at $26). If volume is so low, it makes them harder to buy and sell on the options market Nest Pas?

Finally, since UUP isn't very volatile (swings in a less than 10% range) if you want big moves and if you want to bet the stock market is going to crash (because that's when UUP goes up) why not just think about buying puts or selling calls on a more direct ETF such as DIA? Or do you think the FED is going to allow the dollar to stop devaluing?

Thanks in advance

[AstuteShift]

An even better bet imho is just buying UUP calls, market tanks and the masses and everyone go to the dollar for safety.

Macro bets like this is like chess and eventually it will be check mate for the astute and the dirt for the clueless masses

Astute, I went and stared at UUP and have the following observations: UUP has declined 10% since the March high. Which means the dollar has devalued against those 6 foreign currencies by 10%. Which is consistent with what SOL has been telling us - the FED is in a race to the bottom to devalue the dollar.

Secondly, this explains the 10-15% price increases I've seen for steel and aluminum in my machine shop business. Most of this comes from off shore these days, so foreign goods would be more expensive. I've been baffled by this increase since CPI is supposedly a modest 1.2%

Third and most important question to you: There doesn't seem to be enough volume in UUP options to make it a good idea to buy a CALL on them. The calls exist, but literally bid and ask prices are zero (I looked at a Call for Jan 2022 at $26). If volume is so low, it makes them harder to buy and sell on the options market Nest Pas?

Finally, since UUP isn't very volatile (swings in a less than 10% range) if you want big moves and if you want to bet the stock market is going to crash (because that's when UUP goes up) why not just think about buying puts or selling calls on a more direct ETF such as DIA? Or do you think the FED is going to allow the dollar to stop devaluing?

Thanks in advance

UUP is not volatile currently since very few think the dollar will rally which makes it a asymmetric bet. Also when the dumb money starts to panic and pile on when the markets reverse course the options IV will also expand, implied volatility goes up with more buying and causes the option premiums to raise substantially

Never underestimate the mass mindset when they’re in panic mode, they also buy when the asset is at the top of ranges since they don’t know better

The time to really buy for the astute player will never be a popular choice and it goes against the herd mentality but that’s the only way to score massive wins

Fear pays poorly

I bought 1/2023 UUP 23-24 calls and will just sit and wait.

[Eric]

I'm in your camp Triplethought. I'm not wasting my time on anything that in it's entire existence has only gone up 30% from it's all-time-low of $20.90 in April 2011 to it's all-time-high of $27.15 in September 2019. I look at UUP like a bunt...may be appropriate for some situations but not for me. I need two-run homeruns; I'm swinging for the fences.

[AstuteShift]

I'm in your camp Triplethought. I'm not wasting my time on anything that in it's entire existence has only gone up 30% from it's all-time-low of $20.90 in April 2011 to it's all-time-high of $27.15 in September 2019. I look at UUP like a bunt...may be appropriate for some situations but not for me. I need two-run homeruns; I'm swinging for the fences.

Yep, they’re many ways to skin a cat

Market puts and even selling call spreads are a good strategy of the market gets too euphoric, however make sure not to do short term options

[AstuteShift]

Most experts I despise but credit must be given to those who think outside the box

https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp ... 1030083091

The bitcoin mania is just a distraction, Elon knows how to play his audience.

[AstuteShift]

Quick update, the trades are holding up well

Tesla has been under heavy pressure and The fat lady is looking to sing on BABA

[ultramartian]

Quick update, the trades are holding up well

Tesla has been under heavy pressure and The fat lady is looking to sing on BABA

I managed to get in the TSLA Jan 2022 $240 Call for $10.10 per contract.

Both TSLA and BABA are heading in their rightful path where they should be.

[Eric]

I managed to get in the TSLA Jan 2022 $240 Call for $10.10 per contract.

Both TSLA and BABA are heading in their rightful path where they should be.

Did you "get in" long or short? Also, did you get in for $10.10 per contract ($0.101/share) or $10.10/share ($1,010.00/contract of 100 shares)?

[SOL]

I managed to get in the TSLA Jan 2022 $240 Call for $10.10 per contract.

Both TSLA and BABA are heading in their rightful path where they should be.

Did you "get in" long or short? Also, did you get in for $10.10 per contract ($0.101/share) or $10.10/share ($1,010.00/contract of 100 shares)?

10.10 means you multiply it by 100. So the net cost per contract is 1010.00. As he bought a put its the equivalent of shorting the stock but with the knowledge that you can't lose more than 1010 per contract.

[ultramartian]

I managed to get in the TSLA Jan 2022 $240 Call for $10.10 per contract.

Both TSLA and BABA are heading in their rightful path where they should be.

Did you "get in" long or short? Also, did you get in for $10.10 per contract ($0.101/share) or $10.10/share ($1,010.00/contract of 100 shares)?

Sorry there was a typo. I bought the Jan 2022 $240 Put option, not Call.

[ultramartian]

I managed to get in the TSLA Jan 2022 $240 Call for $10.10 per contract.

Both TSLA and BABA are heading in their rightful path where they should be.

Did you "get in" long or short? Also, did you get in for $10.10 per contract ($0.101/share) or $10.10/share ($1,010.00/contract of 100 shares)?

And sorry for the confusion, it was $1010 per put contract.

[AstuteShift]

Fat lady is singing for both

[SOL]

Fat lady is singing for both

It's good to see subers come out with their own trades and more importantly to see that they are confident in trying something new. That is the only way to advance, have no fear to lose, for even when you lose there is a lesson to be learned. Life is all about advancing and if examined through the right lens, failure is nothing but a stepping stone to success

[AstuteShift]

Fat lady is singing for both

It's good to see subers come out with their own trades and more importantly to see that they are confident in trying something new. That is the only way to advance, have no fear to lose, for even when you lose there is a lesson to be learned. Life is all about advancing and if examined through the right lens, failure is nothing but a stepping stone to success

Fear really is the illusion that holds everyone back. It’s amazing how all of our problems are tied to this useless emotion.

[Triplethought]

Fat lady is singing for both

It's good to see subers come out with their own trades and more importantly to see that they are confident in trying something new. That is the only way to advance, have no fear to lose, for even when you lose there is a lesson to be learned. Life is all about advancing and if examined through the right lens, failure is nothing but a stepping stone to success

Fear really is the illusion that holds everyone back. It’s amazing how all of our problems are tied to this useless emotion.

Nice to see we're up $500 per TSLA contract today. It's rallying but it seems like betting TSLA would go down was a good idea. BABA is not reacting as strongly to the market downturn.