Slow Supertrend of Change and Chaos

[scott]

6 months after sanctions, and Russian supermarkets are not empty



Seems like they are not faring too badly

I can vouch for that. No Lenta (hypermarket) in my town, but grocery stores are full.

[Yodean]

I can vouch for that. No Lenta (hypermarket) in my town, but grocery stores are full.

Most goods from my understanding are available in Russia.

The one area where sanctions seem to have damaged Russia significantly is in the supply of semiconductors/chips/electronic parts. At least that's what some of my sources say.

Any opinion either way?

[SOL]

6 months after sanctions, and Russian supermarkets are not empty



Seems like they are not faring too badly

I can vouch for that. No Lenta (hypermarket) in my town, but grocery stores are full.

My contacts there also say the same thing. In terms of other stuff Russia is known for opening up dummy companies overseas to bypass sanctions

[SOL]

China’s Semiconductor Breakthrough

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), the largest chipmaker in China, has reportedly achieved a major breakthrough. TechInsight, a Canadian tech media outlet, revealed that SMIC had advanced its technology to a quasi-7-nanometer (nm) process, which might be a stepping stone for a true 7nm process. According to TechInsight, SMIC products made from the quasi-7nm process had been shipped for a year. Some media argued that the SMIC’s advancement showed that the U.S. blockade was too little, too late, and out of date.

SMIC’s most advanced chip process node successfully made in the past was 14nm, although it has always made strong attempts to move toward an advanced process node (below 10nm). However, due to SMIC’s inclusion on the Entity List by the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security in December 2020, which was designed to limit SMIC’s ability to reach advanced technology nodes of 10 nanometers or below, it has been blocked from obtaining the necessary Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) machines from ASML of the Netherlands.

The use of an EUV machine is not necessary, in theory, to make the advanced process nodes. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the global leader in semiconductor manufacturing, used Deep Ultraviolet Lithography (DUV) machines in the early stage of its 7nm volume production. But using DUV machines requires more layers of masks, which means more times of exposure and more complexity. This will lead to a lower yield rate and a higher cost for each chip, making such a process commercially inviable nowadays.

But the semiconductor industry is of a strategic importance for China. Having the capacity to make advanced chips is more important than the prices of these chips. It appears that SMIC is indeed moving ahead to use this older technology to achieve technological breakthroughs. In October 2020, it was reported that SMIC had successfully developed “quasi-7nm” chips with the FinFET N+1 process using DUV machines.

https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas- ... akthrough/

These sanctions have forced the Chinese to innovate faster than they would, and they will find means via other countries to get some of the products they need. At the same time, they work on innovation and given that they have unlimited supplies of money as the CCP backs everything, they will succeed sooner than later. Russia is also moving along these lines, so the playing field will look a lot different in the long term. Necessity is the mother of innovation

[Yodean]

Some rumours circulating that Xi is under house arrest after being overthrown in a military coup, led by former president Hu Jintao and former prime minister Wen Jiabao.

@symbios, @xkosmox: you guys hear anything?

If true, markets are crashing next week, which would mark a fine finish to the end of the current Shmita year on Monday, September 26th.

[Yodean]

Nearly 60 percent of flights across China were canceled Wednesday, according to state media.

Flight Master said 9,583 flights had been canceled nationwide as of 10:35 p.m. on Sept. 21, accounting for 59.66 percent of those total scheduled journeys of the day, reported China.com.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mass-canc ... 49582.html

*****

Suspicious ...

[symbios]

Some rumours circulating that Xi is under house arrest after being overthrown in a military coup, led by former president Hu Jintao and former prime minister Wen Jiabao.

@symbios, @xkosmox: you guys hear anything?

If true, markets are crashing next week, which would mark a fine finish to the end of the current Shmita year on Monday, September 26th.

Heard the rumor as well. Cannot confirm. The last time Xi went to HK, he also disappeared for a period of time before resurfacing. So it’s not new for him to do that. Anyway, what’s interesting is, Hu Jintao had not just supported Xi but Hu helped prevent an assassination on Xi as well. So if the rumor is true, Xi would have lost a very important ally in the party.

[Yodean]

Thanks Symbios.

Here's a 2-minute clip:

https://youtu.be/AsZzNe9qIvM?t=1

*****

What's interesting is there has been - thus far - no official denial of these rumours from Beijing.

[SOL]

Showing footages of PLA movement, The Coming Collapse of China author Gordon G Chang took to Twitter and wrote, "This video of military vehicles moving to #Beijing comes immediately after the grounding of 59% of the flights in the country and the jailings of senior officials. There’s a lot of smoke, which means there is a fire somewhere inside the #CCP. #China is unstable."



While other Twitter user posted images claiming PLA military vehicles heading to Beijing on 22 September. "#PLA military vehicles heading to #Beijing on Sep 22. Starting from Huanlai County near Beijing & ending in Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, entire procession as long as 80 KM. Meanwhile, rumor has it that #XiJinping was under arrest after #CCP seniors removed him as head of PLA (sic)," tweeted one Jennifer Zeng.

Apart from the military coup and XI's alleged house arrest, reports of about no commercial flights flying over Beijing today are being circulated.


Meanwhile, Indian columnist Aadil Brar – who reports mostly on China, suspected that XI may be in quarantine following his return from Uzbekistan and the Chinese President is absent from public affairs.


The speculative reports of XI's house arrest arrived following China sentenced two former ministers to death earlier this week. As per details, the two ministers and four other officials, sentenced to life were reportedly part of a 'political faction'.

The sentences of six people is seen as a a part of China's anti-corruption campaign ahead of a political meeting next month, as XI is expected to secure an unprecedented third term.

https://www.livemint.com/news/is-xi-jin ... 72337.html

[bpcw]

https://rumble.com/v1ldlc5-chinas-mortg ... grows.html

[chippermon]

https://rumble.com/v1ldlc5-chinas-mortg ... grows.html

Oh Boy! I'm curious to know how much of that mortgage exposure is denominated in USD? Or JPY?

[MarkD]

Big situation in Italy is the election today. IF, 70% of the officials that will be in their parliament are far right, a new constitution can be approved. Yet another issue for the EU. Italy wants Russian natural gas and Brussels has an issue regardless of the makeup of the representative body.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... oni-right/

[Yodean]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1574267766269353984

*****

Mildly inspirational speech clip (although of course I dislike all politicians, my base state).

I think I'll consume some pasta tonight.

[stefk]

And two meloni for dessert......

[MarkD]

Just read she supports digital ID, which I have said right wing politicians would support so illegals could be controlled.