Interim Update Sept 9, 2022

[SOL]

All the data we need is taking a bit longer to process, so the update could be a bit late and will most likely be sent in two parts. In the meantime, this relatively long interim update should help fill in the gap until the next update is ready.

Overall we are now at the thrust stage unless Powell, Biden or some other one in charge decides to throw cold water at this rally. Powell was unusually harsh in Jackson Hole, and he went into the hole tame and emerged enraged; that's what happens when you go into a hole, I suppose. Powell could have simply stated that the Fed would stay the course and continue raising rates until Inflation showed signs of cooling. Instead, he decided to come out swinging extremely hard, especially when he gave a head fake before the meeting that things might not be so bad.

The world appears to have entered into the "extreme reaction mode."

The extreme reaction by Governments to the COVID outbreak

Extreme reaction in forcing people to take the VAX

Extreme reaction in terms of pumping money into the markets to deal with the extreme crises that was created out of thin air

Extreme moves in the logic-stupidity equation. Being woke, broke and going up in smoke is the new slogan of success. Working hard, paying your debts and saving are signs of a loser; in this new world.

Extreme moves in terms of wanting free stuff; Cancel my student loans, help me pay my rent, pay for my food and give me some money because working is not cool anymore. I am the best, so you work and pay for my keep. This trend is going to keep accelerating

Extreme moves by the West regarding sanctions against Russia. Extreme moves against Russians as a whole.

Extreme moves by America towards China.

Extreme moves by the Fed; Last year, Inflation was not an issue. In fact, Powell stated we could do with a bit of Inflation. Now all of a sudden, Inflation (mainly due to supply issues) is a big problem


Extreme reaction in the markets to extreme reactions from the Fed.

The list goes on and on. What you need to understand that we are now in the land of extremes and what happens out of the market always filters into the market and vice versa. Hence traders need to be prepared for extreme moves. Markets will overshoot to the downside and, more importantly, to the upside. A host of Investments (stocks, real estate, precious metals, bitcoin, etc.) will look so bad that the masses will sell at the bottom just when they should be buying. In turn, some investments will be made to look so good that they will purchase close to the top instead of selling. This game of overshooting will continue for at least another nine years, if not longer. Tactical investors should get used to this play as it will lead to huge gains. How? If you are prepared for these moves, you won't panic when Stock A drops more than you expected because that is the new game; the big players want to create the narrative on the fly and have the money to do this. However, if you understand that every disaster is the spark that fuels the next Bull, you will come out on top like the big players.

We could call the next Bull the Bull of extremes, but the cybernetic Bull is more fitting, and you will understand why in the years to come.

In keeping with the theory of extremes, the markets have to rally decently, and bullish sentiment should rise back to the 50 range before the markets pull back firmly into 2023. In Elliot wave terms, this is sometimes referred to as the four shadows signal. In this case, it would be a buy signal, but ironically, the signal portends a selling wave. We prefer the term selling climax. This market has not experienced a robust enough wave of selling; the climax to date is mediocre in nature.

The monthly charts are trading in the oversold ranges, but in keeping with the "extreme move theory", they need to trade to the insanely oversold ranges before a long-term sustainable rally can take hold

Ideally, everyone should hope that the markets top this year and crash next year. If this comes to pass, it will pave the way for a colossal bull market that will last for years.

Bitcoin has almost completed this extreme move, so a possible quick spike down, and it might be ready to put in a multi-year bottom. There is a good chance it could bottom and start rallying well before the general market's bottom. So there is a chance that Bitcoin could provide one avenue to invest in while we wait for the markets to bottom in 2023

Bonds have experienced extreme selling, so a bottom of some sort should take hold, and as the market pulls back, bonds should rally. If the stock market follow the projected path, bonds should bottom shortly, and the rally should gather steam from Mid to the end of October


Dollar: it's time for it to consolidate, but so far, it's holding up well. It needs a weekly close below. In times of turmoil, the dollar is viewed as a safe haven. However, the US is also paying the highest rates in the developed world, which increases the dollar's attractiveness by a factor of 3X. Ideally, the dollar drops to the 102.80 to 104.10 ranges before attempting to test the 113.10 to 115.05 ranges. Depending on how well the Fed plays the "manipulation game" they could use the USD as a weapon to save the US market next year. If the US is the best game in town, then money will flow into America, but many investors might not want to settle for the mediocre rates bonds or saving accounts offer. They could turn to the stock market in their quest for higher returns, despite dealing with short-term volatility.

In theory, the Fed could use outside money as a source of QE. To do this, Europe has to be sacrificed. If this option does not work, the Fed can always print money, but if it works, they can hold off printing new amounts until the next artificial disaster. In short, if the situation outside looks dire enough, mountains of cash will make their way to the US, which in turn should help foster the birth of the cybernetic baby bull (the most potent Bull of all time). Rough timeline for the commencement of the Cybernetic Bull: the Middle of 2023

[bobdylan]

Thank you for the thorough interim update. I appreciate you and the team taking additional time to process all of the data.

Last update, the trigger for many sells was Nasdaq in the 13,800 range. Do you expect that guidance to roughly hold, or are we looking at a significant revision?

[bpcw]

Thank you for the thorough interim update. I appreciate you and the team taking additional time to process all of the data.

Last update, the trigger for many sells was Nasdaq in the 13,800 range. Do you expect that guidance to roughly hold, or are we looking at a significant revision?

From my perspective, maintain the sell positions, TI will let us know prompto if anything has changed.

Everything so far is going as predicted with the thrust stage having begun. From here we need to keep an eye on sentiment levels to ascertain if there is enough fear to keep this stage going or if bullish sentiment increases significantly and the old fomo rears it's head which would mean we need to move into cash. How much will depend on risk profile and length of investment.

Personally I would want to target an 80% cash level by the time of the next major correction/crash and possibly 100% cash.

[bpcw]

A bit of a correction to my last statement - obviously if we knew tomorrow would be the beginning of a crash we would want to be 100% in cash. What I really meant was I want to be between 80 and 100% cash by the time we reach my own set level based on TI data. They cannot predict an exact top, we're better off gradually moving to cash in chunks and move more aggressively as sentiment becomes more bullish.

If you're totally unsure whether we have already hit a bottom and could hit new highs this year and are going to be invested for 20 years you could go 50% cash, if TI is wrong and we do not see new lows then half your portfolio will continue in profit, if they're right then you can deploy the 50% cash at greater lows, long term your going to make a lot on that 50% and recoup all and some that you have invested. It's all about your individual investment profile.

[LoriPrecisely]

I agree with you regarding 80-100% cash at some point. It gives us a fresh start.
I could have already sold just recently and bought again at the lows, but, hindsight is 20/20.
What I really like about option selling is I can create a system of consistent returns.
It gives me a bit of control, compared to stocks which fluctuate completely out of my control. I have been sitting, for months, on stocks with no profit. That is not to say I have not made any money on stocks, just not anything consistent. I see the candlestick patterns undulate just like the waves of the sea, so one could buy and sell stocks regularly if they want. I have not developed that skill yet.

[stefk]

When the TIT say thrust, trust them.....

[Yodean]

I see the candlestick patterns undulate just like the waves of the sea, so one could buy and sell stocks regularly if they want. I have not developed that skill yet.

This YT channel full of very short clips is a decent primer for technical analysis using candlesticks. The speaker is quite underrated.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNjguO ... Mpw/videos

[jlhooter]

I see the candlestick patterns undulate just like the waves of the sea, so one could buy and sell stocks regularly if they want. I have not developed that skill yet.

This YT channel full of very short clips is a decent primer for technical analysis using candlesticks. The speaker is quite underrated.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNjguO ... Mpw/videos

I love the robotic voice

[Yodean]

I love the robotic voice

@ExcelNinja: you might find the following interesting. It's the same guy - the link is one of his ways of determining safe entries and exits for going long or short.

https://technicalresources.in/2021/03/0 ... -patterns/

[Budge]

All the data we need is taking a bit longer to process, so the update could be a bit late and will most likely be sent in two parts. In the meantime, this relatively long interim update should help fill in the gap until the next update is ready.

Further down your update you add:

. Clown event refers to all the fools ruling
the Western Media and the leaders of these nations. Clown Inc is now in charge of the Western
empire. Clowns can be fun for the most part when they do what they are best at, that is, doing nothing
much but acting silly. When they try to act like experts, trouble rears its head.

Reminded of a recent Armstrong blog piece quoting a Turkish proverb with a nice image and a partial litany of the disasters visited upon us by the current US ventriloquist dummy:

"When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king, the palace becomes a circus."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/unca ... -a-palace/

Unfortunately, this resonates worldwide.

[kcun333]

The September 11 market update confuses me. If the market is now past the “thrust” phase, why then is the Nasdaq below what it was during the “push” phase?

[SOL]

The September 11 market update confuses me. If the market is now past the “thrust” phase, why then is the Nasdaq below what it was during the “push” phase?

Don't confuse momentum with Price. They are two different actions. The momentum is back, so if nothing changes (unforeseen event), then price action should follow, and the highs set in August should be challenged or taken out.

[Macca45]

Hi folks require a bit of advice please. My software has cleared my default chart settings. Can you suggest some standard settings on the weekly and monthly charts for Macd, RSI and SMA's please? Thanks.

[Yodean]

Hi folks require a bit of advice please. My software has cleared my default chart settings. Can you suggest some standard settings on the weekly and monthly charts for Macd, RSI and SMA's please? Thanks.

Speaking only for myself, I generally use the default settings but combine them with futures COT data and some other momentum derivatives.

RSI: 14, MACD/MACDEXP 12,26,9

Also, I like the 5-EMA, 7-EMA, and 30-EMA trendlines (on dailies, weeklies, monthlies).

The 30-EMA gives me a rough idea of the background trend for the particular time scale.

The 5-EMA crossing the 7-EMA gives me an idea of the short-term trend for that time scale (e.g. when 5-day EMA crosses above 7-day EMA, short-term bullish, and vice versa).

[chippermon]

Hi folks require a bit of advice please. My software has cleared my default chart settings. Can you suggest some standard settings on the weekly and monthly charts for Macd, RSI and SMA's please? Thanks.

You're opening up a can of worms here. Everyone has their own opinion on this kind of thing. As they should. It should be whatever speaks to you. In fact, that is your advantage as a trader. It is however your mind interprets the information that sets you apart from all others. This is your advantage.

What speaks to me for a general trend indicator is a 34 EMA. This I apply to all time frames but I combine it with three different CCI's (50,20,6) (50,14,6 for intraday) and I have 4 simple rules that help me decide what move to make. I combine this with price action volatility. All of this in multiple time frames. I also combine it with the excellent research of Tactical Investor Services. This I feel is my advantage. We all interpret the same things so differently and we need to embrace this. This is the key to success.