Bond rally spark...10 yr Treasuries

[jonnyfrank]

What event (Fed induced or otherwise) would spark a rally in 10 year treasury prices? It seems to me they are way oversold and are looking for a simple excuse to rally. Thoughts?

[chippermon]

What event (Fed induced or otherwise) would spark a rally in 10 year treasury prices? It seems to me they are way oversold and are looking for a simple excuse to rally. Thoughts?

The only thing I can see happening in the short term (this next week or two) is for a little bump up as equities flounder a bit more. I'm calling for the yield to pullback to 3.126 then head to 3.635 as we see a nice little equities rally into October. Maybe DXY fill in to the 106.712-106.676 zone.

Once the hammer comes down on equities I see 10 years finding support at 92'24 but I have to say that gap to 91'03'6 is bloody scary. So, I don't think they are way over sold. Then USD crosses will resume upward movement.


The event is going to have to have something to do with the war or the potential of another theatre of war somewhere else in the world. Maybe NATO taking a stronger more direct stance in the Russia Ukraine conflict. How about a new uncurable virus? I mean, everyone seems to be so shell shocked and unpredictable after the last two years, I'm not even sure what effect these possibilities would have. Could be up could be down.

I see a potential yield of 5.046 on the 10 year in this shake out. Once the bottom is in with equities then bonds will rocket.

Another possibility could be the Fed's open market operations but I'm just not up to speed on the ins and outs of that. They have created such a vast market with sooo much money in the system that any significant positive move would have to be completely out of the blue and unexpected.

How about this? BOJ Governor Kuroda Haruhiko does a complete about face and raises interest rates 2%

Generally I'm bearish on the 10 Treasury prices. NFA

[Yodean]

What event (Fed induced or otherwise) would spark a rally in 10 year treasury prices? It seems to me they are way oversold and are looking for a simple excuse to rally. Thoughts?

For me, it's always a waste of time to try to speculate (intellectual self-hanky-panky) on "what event will trigger a specific price action" in a particular asset.

Been slowly loading up on TMF.

Heavily oversold, likely due to USD shortage around the world - i.e. peeps/central banks selling Treasuries to generate USD to pay off leveraged USD-denominated loans. USD Black Hole, or USD Milkshake.

If the USD consolidates around current levels and goes down a bit (my base case atm), the pressure induced by global USD shortage should abate temporarily, and yields should go down a touch, and the bond rally should be game on.

[Do-or-Die]

What event (Fed induced or otherwise) would spark a rally in 10 year treasury prices? It seems to me they are way oversold and are looking for a simple excuse to rally. Thoughts?

For me, it's always a waste of time to try to speculate (intellectual self-hanky-panky) on "what event will trigger a specific price action" in a particular asset.

Been slowly loading up on TMF.

Heavily oversold, likely due to USD shortage around the world - i.e. peeps/central banks selling Treasuries to generate USD to pay off leveraged USD-denominated loans. USD Black Hole, or USD Milkshake.

If the USD consolidates around current levels and goes down a bit (my base case atm), the pressure induced by global USD shortage should abate temporarily, and yields should go down a touch, and the bond rally should be game on.

For those interested in TA, bonds might be close to triggering a 4 shadow buy signal. but before this occurs there is usually one last blast in the opposite direction of the signal

[DOCLUC]

Sorry all.
Having troubles with my mail.
I'm wondering if Sol sent out a MU yesterday as it is said in his last mail with Plunder from Downunder.
Don't want to miss it
thank you

[bpcw]

Sorry all.
Having troubles with my mail.
I'm wondering if Sol sent out a MU yesterday as it is said in his last mail with Plunder from Downunder.
Don't want to miss it
thank you

I've not had one, suspect it's taken longer than expected to collate data.

Everything going as expected so far, so no rush!

[DOCLUC]

thank you