Here come the Semiconductor wars?

[SOL]

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. warned that a global shortage of semiconductors across industries from automaking to consumer electronics may extend into 2022, prompting the linchpin chipmaker to lift targets on spending and growth for this year.

The world’s largest contract chipmaker said Thursday that its auto industry clients can expect chip shortages to begin easing next quarter, alleviating some of the supply disruptions that have forced the likes of General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. to curtail production. But overall deficits of critical semiconductors will last throughout 2021 and potentially into next year, Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei told analysts on a conference call.

TSMC now expects investments of about $30 billion on capacity expansions and upgrades this year, after spending $8.8 billion in the first three months, Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said. The company had previously forecast spending of as much as $28 billion. Sales in the June quarter may be between $12.9 billion and $13.2 billion, beating the average $12.8 billion seen by analysts, though its target for gross margin came in below expectations at 49.5% to 51.5%. Full-year revenue may climb 20% in dollar terms, ahead of the “mid-teens” growth predicted in January.

“We see the demand continue to be high,” Wei said. “In 2023, I hope we can offer more capacity to support our customers. At that time, we’ll start to see the supply chain tightness release a little bit.”

TSMC joins a growing number of industry giants from Continental AG to Renesas Electronics Corp. and Foxconn Technology Group that warned of longer-than-anticipated deficits thanks to unprecedented demand for everything from cars to game consoles and mobile devices. While Taiwan’s largest chipmaker has kept its fabs running at “over 100% utilization,” the firm doesn’t have enough capacity to satisfy all its customers and it has pledged to invest $100 billion over the next three years to expand

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-pro ... 47899.html

Despite all the hype about TSM and those that use its Fabs like AMD, NVDA, etc, Intel will do well because it has its own fabs and all it takes is one misstep and the game changes instantly. No new fabs will come online for roughly 2 years and that is assuming all goes well. So all those chaps creating new chips are relying on TSM. It is a dangerous situation if something goes wrong. So far nothing has gone wrong but Murphy's law states that when one least expects it something can and will go wrong

Let's see how things unfold

[Budge]

Despite all the hype about TSM and those that use its Fabs like AMD, NVDA, etc, Intel will do well because it has its own fabs and all it takes is one misstep and the game changes instantly......
It is a dangerous situation if something goes wrong.....
So far nothing has gone wrong but Murphy's law states that when one least expects it something can and will go wrong

Let's see how things unfold

PRC military invades Taiwan.

[SOL]

Despite all the hype about TSM and those that use its Fabs like AMD, NVDA, etc, Intel will do well because it has its own fabs and all it takes is one misstep and the game changes instantly......
It is a dangerous situation if something goes wrong.....
So far nothing has gone wrong but Murphy's law states that when one least expects it something can and will go wrong

Let's see how things unfold

PRC military invades Taiwan.

That's becoming more of a reality. thought I suspect because China has mountains of cash, it will start to poach talent from NVDA and other top players. AI dominance is the real war and China is not going to fall behind because it will lead to its demise. While Russia pushes the envelope in the military arena, China will seek to dominate in this area with Russia's blessing. The current ban is a bad idea.

Expect a sudden break through in manufacturing chips from Russia and or China or they will both work on something while China as a backup will continue to poach the talent it needs.
Interestingly, the source notes that Russia was involved in EUV lithography development in the 2010's. Its leading scientists decided that the work couldn't be done in geographic isolation, so some of the research (particularly to do with radiation sources) was apparently shared with and applied by ASML.

Other interesting past works in Russia included the development of the synchrotron X-ray radiation source in Zelenograd in the mid-1980s. This technology was apparently developed by forward looking scientists for the needs of microelectronics processing, but plans weren't followed through. It will now be used in this newly funded X-ray lithography research, but new devices based on it should be ready by 2023.

MIET isn't just refining a process with its X-ray lithography plans. It will have to indulge in deep research. "Our project is a research work that has no analogues: no one in the world has ever done maskless lithography on such principles,” said Nikolai Dyuzhev a director of Microsystems and electronics at MIET.

Above we mentioned that the finished design will be shooting for 28nm, 16nm and below but X-ray lithography is already claimed to have potential for work at "a resolution better than 10nm." X-rays have a shorter wavelength than EUV radiation.

X-ray lithography research is hoped to be started in earnest from November this year. By then there should have been proposed technical specifications and feasibility studies for a prototype X-ray lithography machines drawn up.

As for test production runs using any new X-ray lithography machine, we will have to wait for five years or more, according to Dyuzhev.

Considering all of that, the Russian X-ray lithography program doesn’t look likely to amount to much in practical terms. However, it might provide some worthwhile contributions to the body of semiconductor manufacturing science

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/russi ... raphy-tech

The Russians function best under intense pressure, and the pressure today is well past the boiling point. Let's see what happens, but Russia is focussing on military might, for without guns, you are no one

And let's not forget Russia now controls the market for Neon Gas as Ukraine has been eliminated from the equation. They will use this very effectively

[Yodean]

PRC military invades Taiwan.

Ain't gonna happen.

Anyone want to place a friendly wager? Or not so friendly. Whatever stakes one may want. Could be $$$, or something non-monetary.

I'll give anyone 1 to 1 odds that before the end of 2024, CPP will not militarily invade Formosa.

Political/peaceful takeover doesn't count.

There has to be at least 5k bodybags on both sides.

Let's see who's gonna put some $$$ (or at least some ego pride) where zee pie hole is ...

Or maybe to make it more fun, instead of $$$, the loser has to write a 500+ word post supporting her opposite viewpoint on a trigger topic.

So for example, let's say I bet Budge on this:

-if he loses, he has to write an erudite post on why Brandon is the best POTUS, like, evah ...

-if I lose, I have to write an articulate post on why double-masking with N95s during doggie-style sex is really important for your health.

-something along those lines ...

[AstuteShift]

China is bluffing, CCP is just trying to save face

No way they can handle the US military, it would be child’s play

I’m super bearish on the CCP, they’re done

[Yodean]

China is bluffing, CCP is just trying to save face

No way they can handle the US military, it would be child’s play

I’m super bearish on the CCP, they’re done

Agree on your 1st two points.

The 3rd is debatable - if the CCP is done, who/what will replace them? There's not going to be a mass revolution that succeeds - those types of utopian dreams never come to pass in this Metaverse.

At most, I see the CCP changing a bit, in their inner structures.

I still see the CCP and the U.S. as Frenemies, not true enemies. China's benefitting from the Russia vs. West proxy war in many ways, including being able to buy and stockpile commodities at cheaper prices. India as well. Then they can sell them at higher prices back to the West. It's happening as we speak.

The more Russia causes trouble for the West, the better it is for China. Russia's military is protecting China's western borders from NATO incursion, when viewed from a certain perspective, as well as weakening Western Europe.

As for the mighty U.S.A., Wokism, fears of zee virus and more non-isolated viruses to come, and generally a very weak, chubby/obese generation easily polarized by mainstream media and fighting over the definition of what it means to be a woman or trans-man - Mass Menticide is already destroying the nation.

No bullets or weapons of mass destruction will be needed.

America as a concept is doomed.

[SOL]

Boy, how this topic morphed from Semi-conductor wars to doom, destruction and since we are on the topic, from the ashes riseth the phoenix.

All these states are part of life; people just forget that. Everyone person goes through peace, chaos, destruction and rebirth until they kick the bucket. So if it happens to individuals, why not on a mass cycle? The equation must balance, so while one side dies, the other side rises. net-net, nothing changes, and that is why the masses on both sides, the one that is sinking, suffer, and the one that is rising, don't really benefit that much. In other words, one could argue that their state is already defined. The only ones benefiting are the top players and critical out-of-the-box thinkers with the foresight to ride on the coattails of these pirates of change.

Taking this a step further, despite history proving that every stock market crash was the birth of a new mightier bull, what do the masses take away from this lesson? Run, baby, run for the hills and hide in a cave. If they lead by example, they could teach their children to wait for these opportune moments and buy like there is no tomorrow. Even if one remains invested in the markets, and only has 10 to 20% cash at the onset of the crash, one can still make out like a bandit. A new bull market starts when the old high is taken out. So there are many things one could do to benefit from the upcoming bull if they are short on cash.

1) Live 2 -3 levels below your means; this means cutting out all crap food and eating outside as little as possible
2) Sell covered calls and use the proceeds to purchase puts as the corrective wave starts, so you have some sort of hedge in place. When Bearish sentiment surges, north of 60 or bullish sentiment drops to the 10-15 ranges, buy back the calls and sell the puts. Now sell your stock to raise cash and use the proceeds to buy in the money calls with at least 12 months of time on them. If you can buy calls with 15 to 24 months of time premium, purchase these. Don't deploy more than half of the funds you obtained from selling the stock, and deploy this 50% of the funds in lots; divide them into three lots and deploy them one at a time. This can be viewed as a less risky form of cannon-balling as you are selling the stock and replacing them with long-term options (LEAPS).

If one has extra cash, one can sell puts when the bullish sentiment trades in the above ranger and use the proceeds to purchase further out-of-the-money calls.

In general, there are many options once Fear is removed from the equation. The biggest crash waiting for any person is death; there is no recovery from death, and yet no one sits and worries about this every day, but a market crash oh boy, the masses worry about it all the time and never plan on what to do with this splendid opportunity. The PTB, on the other hand, know exactly what to do.

[xkosmox]

This can be viewed as a less risky form of cannon-balling as you are selling the stock and replacing them with long-term options (LEAPS).

I've always wondered, is it lower risk to do this for indexes, instead of specific stocks? Since you are less dependent on one specific stock, but rather the trend of the entire market.

[SOL]

This can be viewed as a less risky form of cannon-balling as you are selling the stock and replacing them with long-term options (LEAPS).

I've always wondered, is it lower risk to do this for indexes, instead of specific stocks? Since you are less dependent on one specific stock, but rather the trend of the entire market.

The short answer is yes, but the long answer is more complex. For example, potentially giving up the chance of locking in mega gains via specific stocks.

[Do-or-Die]

This can be viewed as a less risky form of cannon-balling as you are selling the stock and replacing them with long-term options (LEAPS).

I've always wondered, is it lower risk to do this for indexes, instead of specific stocks? Since you are less dependent on one specific stock, but rather the trend of the entire market.

The short answer is yes, but the long answer is more complex. For example, potentially giving up the chance of locking in mega gains via specific stocks.

When you have time, could you provide us with more details on this strategy and or an even better option would be to inform us of when the right conditions are met for this strategy to be used.

[Budge]

PRC military invades Taiwan.

Ain't gonna happen.

Anyone want to place a friendly wager? Or not so friendly. Whatever stakes one may want. Could be $$$, or something non-monetary.

I'll give anyone 1 to 1 odds that before the end of 2024, CPP will not militarily invade Formosa.

Political/peaceful takeover doesn't count.

There has to be at least 5k bodybags on both sides.

Let's see who's gonna put some $$$ (or at least some ego pride) where zee pie hole is ...

Or maybe to make it more fun, instead of $$$, the loser has to write a 500+ word post supporting her opposite viewpoint on a trigger topic.

So for example, let's say I bet Budge on this:

-if he loses, he has to write an erudite post on why Brandon is the best POTUS, like, evah ...

-if I lose, I have to write an articulate post on why double-masking with N95s during doggie-style sex is really important for your health.

-something along those lines ...

Deano,
I never bet. However, as a consolation prize I offer you a formidable Formosan "Tai-one-on" solution that'll have Xi a quaking:

https://interestingengineering.com/cult ... 03-09-2022

[scott]

Deano,
I never bet. However, as a consolation prize I offer you a formidable Formosan "Tai-one-on" solution that'll have Xi a quaking:

https://interestingengineering.com/cult ... 03-09-2022

Wouldn't cost Uncle Sam much to send over three million FP-45 Liberators. Saw one in the Aberdeen Proving Grounds Museum. The display said they cost (if I remember right) $0.98 to make in the 40's.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CjndIiZyJo

[Yodean]

Deano,
I never bet. However, as a consolation prize I offer you a formidable Formosan "Tai-one-on" solution that'll have Xi a quaking:

Ah, c'mon ... you win the aforementioned bet, I have to write a 500+ word post on the topic of your choice. If I win, you have to do one on why Hunter B. is a fantastic role model for youngsters. May be kinda fun ...

What's your blood type? Mine is "Taipei." Born there, too.

[Yodean]

Wouldn't cost Uncle Sam much to send over three million FP-45 Liberators. Saw one in the Aberdeen Proving Grounds Museum. The display said they cost (if I remember right) $0.98 to make in the 40's.

I suspect one could easily 3D print these weapons at home cheaply, in times to come.

[Do-or-Die]

Wouldn't cost Uncle Sam much to send over three million FP-45 Liberators. Saw one in the Aberdeen Proving Grounds Museum. The display said they cost (if I remember right) $0.98 to make in the 40's.

I suspect one could easily 3D print these weapons at home cheaply, in times to come.

If there is a real war between Formosa and China, then Taiwan is better of surrendering and avoiding the Ukrainian outcome. But I am not sure there will be a hot war, but then again, what the hell do I know