Fills

[Triplethought]

All true. Also, if you make enough predictions, a portion will come true. If you manage to guess which portion that is, you will profit immensely.

On the other hand, the elephant in the room remains that the TIT's sentiment indicators weren't able to predict a >33% drop in the Nasdaq100 within an approximate 6-month period (e.g. January to June).

As an independent thinker, one must consider as many angles of perception as possible.

Clap Clap Clap. We need to acknowledge the fact and analyze our results to try to correct our mistakes. Obviously no one has a crystal ball and the TIT team has been right a lot in previous years.

You and I differ in that I see SOL as unreasonably optimistic, and I use him and the TIT team to counterbalance my natural conservatism and pessimism. So when SOL says a downturn could occur in the latter part of this year I view that as a data point of pessimism. It may not happen. But I've voted with my money and I'm currently 60% in cash (with a small 3% realized gain for the year) and 40% in TIT plays that are deeply "in the red" with losses matching Nasdaq of 30% (unrealized loss) and in my view are likely to stay negative for the rest of this year. I'll either wait for SOL to specify exit points at a loss or hold them thru the next down cycle until they come back.

In the meantime I'm moving more cash into real estate and hard money loans at 9% apr. But even those are scary. Tomorrow I'm considering a mortgage for a large building owned by a publicly traded company that is hemorrhaging money. They want to mortgage the building, then sell it to give themselves cash for a 1 year runway to turn profitable. Hardly a comfortable loan to make. Consulting with lawyers to see if they file BK if I will likely end up with their building or mired in years of litigation with their stockholders.

[SOL]

The dollar is expected to top in 2023; if that top turns out to be a multi-decade, inflation will flare on all cylinders (based on the bastardized version, based on the hard money version, inflation started the day we got off the Gold standard). This means that commodities will rise and could experience massive moves, hard assets like real estate should also do well as they can't be printed (but this sector is going to be volatile for a few months) and then again, some sectors could get hammered while others do well.

However, a weak USD bodes well for the stock market, so once this pain cycle ends, the markets are likely to rally for several years.

[AstuteShift]

Looking forward to that bloodbath, but there is also a chance of the market rallying until Jan of 2023

All the bears are just getting too excited, hence I have not really build a short position yet

I want to see evidence of bears caving in and joining the rally, also a Jim Cramer tweet that the bear market is over! LOL

Perhaps we even get Jim Rogers visit of doom and gloom also! Hahahah

[SOL]

Looking forward to that bloodbath, but there is also a chance of the market rallying until Jan of 2023

All the bears are just getting too excited, hence I have not really build a short position yet

I want to see evidence of bears caving in and joining the rally, also a Jim Cramer tweet that the bear market is over! LOL

Perhaps we even get Jim Rogers visit of doom and gloom also! Hahahah

We are not focussing on shorting now, just moving more into cash. Before shorting and especially if you are playing with futures you need to have as many factors on your side as futures well that's pure gasoline. Topping action can last for sometime but look how fast the Meme stock crowd came back, after losing everything in the last cycle, well 90% lost everything. So bullish sentiment could soar quite fast. However as they say it ain't over until its over or when the fat lady sings.

[xkosmox]

Setting aside a reasonable amount for QQQ jan2023 call to prepare for once the surge comes

[AstuteShift]

Looking forward to that bloodbath, but there is also a chance of the market rallying until Jan of 2023

All the bears are just getting too excited, hence I have not really build a short position yet

I want to see evidence of bears caving in and joining the rally, also a Jim Cramer tweet that the bear market is over! LOL

Perhaps we even get Jim Rogers visit of doom and gloom also! Hahahah

We are not focussing on shorting now, just moving more into cash. Before shorting and especially if you are playing with futures you need to have as many factors on your side as futures well that's pure gasoline. Topping action can last for sometime but look how fast the Meme stock crowd came back, after losing everything in the last cycle, well 90% lost everything. So bullish sentiment could soar quite fast. However as they say it ain't over until its over or when the fat lady sings.

I’m well aware haha

Shorting you have to be super nimble, I usually just day trade futures and never hold overnight to prevent losses

However, holding longs is the most profitable for me, so I won’t fight that trend lol

[SOL]

Setting aside a reasonable amount for QQQ jan2023 call to prepare for once the surge comes

Just remember that predicting the short term is harder. Our overall theme is for the markets to rally until Sept-Oct timelines. So pullbacks should be viewed bullishly until then. Hopefully, the pullback is fairly decent, but there are no guarantees when dealing with short-term timelines.

Taking a long-term view I am going to respond to a question that has been asked several times by email. What happens if you guys are wrong about the 4th quarter correction?

The answer is simple. If a new bull market starts (hard to see the case for that now) it is relatively easy to find plays in an up-trending market as not all sectors take off at the same time. But it is tough to get out of plays and then short stocks when you are caught in the middle of a strong downward wave.

Overall though, the masses have not changed, they view bear markets with fear and when a market is in going through a corrective phase they focus on today only. However, when all looks well, and the markets keep running higher and higher, they assume that the rally will never end and refuse to sell. The single best lesson you can teach any young kid that has reached the age of reason is to view stock market crashes through a bullish lens.

[Yodean]

In the meantime I'm moving more cash into real estate and hard money loans at 9% apr. But even those are scary. Tomorrow I'm considering a mortgage for a large building owned by a publicly traded company that is hemorrhaging money. They want to mortgage the building, then sell it to give themselves cash for a 1 year runway to turn profitable. Hardly a comfortable loan to make. Consulting with lawyers to see if they file BK if I will likely end up with their building or mired in years of litigation with their stockholders.

It's interesting - you view a lot of stock investing as pretty risky, but I see your huge allocation to real estate-related investments as being pretty risky, too. I guess it all comes down to comfort zones and relative experience.

Our li'l $500 bet on real estate is getting interesting. On the one hand, sales of residential property is going down, but the average price sold at is still going up. So hard to say what the average price of a U.S. home in 2021 vs. 2022 will end up being.

Dead heat atm, I say ...

[MarkD]

I updated the corporate bond A/D and investigation identified the volume reported by FINRA is $ volume. So I played with the volume and identified when the $ volume exceeded prior normal range (all visual and limited by the data set). The red lines mark excursions when bonds began to sell off last year. Multiple excursion. There have been no excursions to the upside yet.

Again, a work in progress. Have requested data from FINRA (second time) so I don't have to spend time manually expanding the historical record.

https://imgur.com/L7Jwr0D

[Triplethought]

being pretty risky, too. I guess it all comes down to comfort zones and relative experience.

Our li'l $500 bet on real estate is getting interesting. On the one hand, sales of residential property is going down, but the average price sold at is still going up. So hard to say what the average price of a U.S. home in 2021 vs. 2022 will end up being.

Dead heat atm, I say ...

I agree. I may yet lose that bet.

[Triplethought]

Setting aside a reasonable amount for QQQ jan2023 call to prepare for once the surge comes

Dude that is just ballsy as hell. and if you have those kind of balls why not do it now?

[Eric]

Are you confusing QQQ (NASDAQ-100 ETF) for TQQQ (TRIPLE-QQQ) or (TRIPLE)-S(HORT-)QQQ?

[harryg]

The phrase 'You cannot profit by listening to a prophet' is not mine, it's from the Zurich Axioms.

The purpose of the phrasing is to encourage people to accept that one of the 'secrets' to doing well in the markets is to think and act (react) for oneself, to develop one's own independent methodology.

This does not mean that one should not seek out research, opinions and views. Neither does it mean that these views should be disregarded, or that people making predictions should be mocked. It is just a reminder that however intelligently formulated and meticulously researched, they are predictions about the future.

Let's take the weather. The question for investors/speculators isn't whether or not it will rain, because the truth of the matter is that you don't know for certain. It's what will you do if it does rain and what will you do if it doesn't rain. What will you do if it rains far more than expected and what will you do if it doesn't rain for a week. What you will do if the weather forecast disappears for a month or a different weather forecast says the opposite of the first one.

Of course when we invest in something that is in itself a prediction of sorts (that it will go up). But it's wise not to get bogged down by the prediction itself and the reasoning behind it. This can be the difference between wishing to be "right" (perfectly natural) and wishing to make money.

[froggo]

market update:
18/8/22, sold, BHE @ $ 29 (i know instructions was to sell 28-30 range if trade here before 16/8/22, but i forgot that, so just letting u guys know in case this relevant)...

P.S. can't go broke making a profit

[PuppBaby]

market update:
18/8/22, sold, BHE @ $ 29 (i know instructions was to sell 28-30 range if trade here before 16/8/22, but i forgot that, so just letting u guys know in case this relevant)...

P.S. can't go broke making a profit

Oh man thanks for pointing that out, I noticed others had sold but I never updated my notes so I figured they got out early.