Tobeornot wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:46 am
I don't think Sol has ever called himself a prophet or even hinted at being one; i am not inferring that you stated this, just making an observation. His predictions over the years are downright incredible. You are kind of nitpicking regarding your findings; i mean they focus on a very specific time frame. Investing is about the long haul, and over the long run TIs record is phenomenal.
IMHO you are expecting way too much. You stated you made 100plus K from options trading. If I am not mistaken, it was SOL that made you aware of selling puts and calls, so in a few months you have already made more than you would pay for a lifetime of services. Not to mention the health benefits you have reaped. You don't seem to mention the benefits you have reaped from this service. Perhaps my observation is wrong. If I am wrong I apologize in advance.
1) The challenge is that for the last several months, there has been a consistent trickle of PMs to my inbox here and on AITT, as well as to my personal email address for those who have it, from fellow subs wanting my opinion about the TIT's services and opinions, etc.
Some aren't always comfortable making their opinions and questions known publicly.
A few subs just PM or email me to say goodbye (i.e. they are not renewing their TIT subscriptions) and thank me for various things I have said or done, etc., as well as to potentially establish communication channels for further discussions or meetings in the future, offline.
So my last post was more to bring and summarize their concerns a bit and let the discussion flow as it does.
My comments may be disregarded or implemented in some fashion to improve the TIT's services, as the TIT sees fit.
2) I've been investing/trading since 2004, and am always happy to learn new things, both in and out of the markets. So I do know the limits of financial forecasting. Just in the last six months alone, I've had several seven-figure swings in my portfolio in both directions, and this isn't the first time that this has happened, so I am no stranger to volatility.
Sol has been very clear that there are no guarantees when it comes to the markets, and that he considers himself an advanced student at best, not a guru. All good.
The challenge, I think, is that saying this is fine on paper, but when one speaks and acts with a high degree of certainty, the aforementioned message may get lost.
So beginning investors may not really "hear" the part about the limits of financial forecasting, and just assume all the TIT's predictions are going to come to fruition, and all their various sentiment indices are going to be "right."
It's unfortunate that optics do matter in this business.
3) Indeed, I have benefitted a lot from the TIT subscriptions and particularly the forums. Lots of benefits in terms of learning about non-financial matters, including philosophy, geopolitics, health, etc. And last but not least, very entertaining, and fun. Those last two factors are quite important to me personally.
However, a lot of subs just want the financial stuff from TIT, which is what they are paying for, predominantly. All the other stuff is just gravy, or icing on the cake.
So when they ask me what the TIT's long-term record is in terms of P/L, and how this is calculated, I have to tell them I don't know, since I apply the TIT recommendations in different ways than most. Also there is no formal tracking of TIT results, long-term, in the various portfolios.
In truth, throughout both the good times and bad times in the last several years, my overall official TIT portfolio is quite small in relative terms compared to my non-TIT portfolio, but I apply a lot of TIT tactics and methodology to my non-TIT portfolio, which on balance has been a strong way of using the TIT stuff. I suspect based on your posts you kind of do that as well.
Also, from a business perspective, I think it's important for the TIT to officially track results for the different portfolios over a period of time, and make this process more transparent for potential subs to assess and critique. I think many moons ago this issue was brought up by a number of subs, if memory serves.
It's not really enough to ask a few subs to track their TIT results, imo.
This is a small example: the TIT tracks fill prices that subs email to them. But there is significant selection bias here - those who fill at the higher range of the recommended prices may feel mildly embarassed, and not email the results in, while those who get a really "good" fill are more likely to email their fills in. Stuff like that. Also, many just can't be bothered to email a bunch of results in, since many subs are using financial subscriptions from other services, so emailing results in may be just too onerous.
One possible solution is to take the midpoint of the entry and exit ranges recommended, and use that to calculate the P/L of TIT trades. So something like the stock has to trade throughout the entire range to be officially tabulated, and the mid-point will be deemed the "official" entry point.
On one hand this creates more work for the TIT, but it also reduces the work of tracking sub fill emails, and even if no sub fills, it can be used as data for calculating and publishing the P/L of official TIT plays.
3) Most financial subscription services tend to do fairly well, as a group, during bull markets. The true test is during bear markets, as experienced traders know. Everyone's a genius in a bull market, as the saying goes. Bear markets are when the anti-fragility of a certain trading methodology is truly tested.
So all my suggestions are made publicly to potentially improve the TIT's services, and encourage others to speak up when appropriate.
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. Looking at the picture quickly, i see a nice pattern emerging. Looks like daily bars?