Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

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SOL
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Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

Post by SOL »

Dimon called the office a “rainbow room” and said that workers who stayed home were denying themselves "opportunities to meet other people." The JPMorgan CEO argued that "if you live in certain parts of our country and go eat out there, it is all white," meaning remote workers may end up having a more uniform experience than if they traveled into work.

Studies report that minorities, especially Black and Hispanic workers, are teleworking at lower rates than White workers. One April study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that 19% of Black and 14% of Hispanic workers engaged in telework, compared to 24% of White workers and 38% of Asian workers. The CDC study argues that the difference stemmed from lower rates of college education among minority populations, as well as overrepresentation of Black and Hispanic workers in jobs that don't allow for remote work.

A survey from the Society for Human Resource Management last September reported that half of Black office workers wanted to work from home, compared to 39% of White workers and 29% of Hispanic workers.

CEOs, real estate developers, and even city mayors have called for workers to return to the office. Developer Stephen Ross predicted in June that a recession might make "people fear that they might not have a job [and] that will bring people back to the office.” But workers want to stay home. The Slack-funded Future Forum found in July that only one in five knowledge workers wanted to return to the office, a record low.

Nationally, office occupancy rates are hovering around 43%, according to Kastle Systems, a security company.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan ... 15020.html

Remote work is the stepping stone to offshoring jobs. As a result office space in the top cities is going to continue being under utilized. This sector of the real estate market is ripe for consolidation
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

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SOL wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:45 pm
Dimon called the office a “rainbow room” and said that workers who stayed home were denying themselves "opportunities to meet other people." The JPMorgan CEO argued that "if you live in certain parts of our country and go eat out there, it is all white," meaning remote workers may end up having a more uniform experience than if they traveled into work.

Studies report that minorities, especially Black and Hispanic workers, are teleworking at lower rates than White workers. One April study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that 19% of Black and 14% of Hispanic workers engaged in telework, compared to 24% of White workers and 38% of Asian workers. The CDC study argues that the difference stemmed from lower rates of college education among minority populations, as well as overrepresentation of Black and Hispanic workers in jobs that don't allow for remote work.

A survey from the Society for Human Resource Management last September reported that half of Black office workers wanted to work from home, compared to 39% of White workers and 29% of Hispanic workers.

CEOs, real estate developers, and even city mayors have called for workers to return to the office. Developer Stephen Ross predicted in June that a recession might make "people fear that they might not have a job [and] that will bring people back to the office.” But workers want to stay home. The Slack-funded Future Forum found in July that only one in five knowledge workers wanted to return to the office, a record low.

Nationally, office occupancy rates are hovering around 43%, according to Kastle Systems, a security company.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan ... 15020.html

Remote work is the stepping stone to offshoring jobs. As a result office space in the top cities is going to continue being under utilized. This sector of the real estate market is ripe for consolidation
Amending quote: "Dimon called the office a “rainbow room” and said that workers who stayed home were denying themselves "opportunities to meet other people. And steal from them!"
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

Post by MarkD »

My cousin is a corporate HR officer for an international company. They cancelled plans for office expansion in 2020.

Daughter is permanently ensconced in WAH.

There are still going to be offices for the folks whose primary skill is politics.
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

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SOL wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:45 pm
Remote work is the stepping stone to offshoring jobs. As a result office space in the top cities is going to continue being under utilized. This sector of the real estate market is ripe for consolidation
How does one invest on this? Zoom? Telecommunications like VZ/TMobile/AT&T?
I'm all about using what we know to make profit :mrgreen:
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

Post by outof thebox »

I think you could short companies via puts that are involved heavily with commercial real estate, specifically office rentals.
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

Post by SOL »

outof thebox wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:30 pm I think you could short companies via puts that are involved heavily with commercial real estate, specifically office rentals.
Be careful about shorting a stock either directly or indirectly via puts. It is a high risk trade and one should have a backup plan in place in case things don't go according to plan :)
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

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Where I used to live in KC, some older retail strip malls were being modified for use as health care facilities, e.g., hospice. I suspect these office buildings will take time but conversion of high value real estate can support valuation. And another bubble of some sort may require the space.
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

Post by Budge »

China's real estate problems:

"Hundreds of men, women, and elders have been beaten up on the streets for…mortgages?

That’s right. You didn’t read that wrong.

It is happening in China right now.

It all started on July 17 when thousands of protestors surrounded China’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission building, hollering in unison: “No mortgage payments!”

Normally, refusing to pay back a loan on a house you purchased would seem silly.

But not when these homes have never been built.

And that’s what’s happening in China right now." ....

"One After Another, Chinese Developers Are Defaulting" ....

Things Could Be Much Worse
Now, what I just showed you is “official” data that Xi Jinping knowingly allowed to go public.

But knowing Beijing’s propensity to data massaging, the real situation could be much, much worse. In fact, Bloomberg reported that CCP is actively censoring crowd-sourced mortgage documents on the internet.

Meanwhile, more protests are breaking out in central China because more than 400,000 customers can’t access their bank deposits from four rural banks. The banks have reportedly frozen $1.5 billion.

The authorities blamed suspended accounts on an illegal fundraising scheme that affected the ill-fated bank. But even if that’s true, why would you take away people’s life savings?

Why would you not even let people come physically close to the banks?

Now get this: there are even reports that customers whose deposits are frozen can’t walk into banks because their Covid apps flash a virus warning and force them to go to a “centralized isolation center.”

https://www.equedia.com/chinas-great-reset-has-begun/
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

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That’s just the beginning, China real estate market is the biggest Ponzi scheme on earth

Hence why I don’t touch Chinese stocks, the risk is greater than holding crypto. The good news for crypto is that wallstreet loves it to destroy the peons who think they can still strike rich so it will stay for the time being

Regardless if they go higher, they also have a higher chance of getting delisted

America no longer playing nice
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

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AstuteShift wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:55 pm That’s just the beginning, China real estate market is the biggest Ponzi scheme on earth

Hence why I don’t touch Chinese stocks, the risk is greater than holding crypto
If the PBOC is able to pull a rabbit out of its hat (they are easing monetary policy atm as you know), and delisting of the stocks in question (e.g. BABA, BIDU; TCEHY is OTC so should be safe from delisting) does not occur, I am quite bullish on FXI, BABA, BIDU, & TCEHY.

The National Party Congress is supposed to occur sometime in November, so I'm still waiting for that bull run.

Come on Xi baby, gimme one more bull run ...

Lots of ifs, and of course I could be the ultimate contrarian indicator for Chinese stocks ... :lol:

Darkest before the Light and all that ...
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

Post by AstuteShift »

If the stocks get delisted you lose all your money in BABa and other Chinese securities

When the risk is that great, I don’t even look at China as being investable

I’d rather just play memes via day trading instead lol
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

Post by symbios »

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-st ... 29241.html

Intention to delist,
  • China Life Insurance Co.
  • PetroChina Co.
  • China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.
  • Aluminum Corp. of China
  • Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co.
Delisted,
  • Didi
More to come?
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SOL
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

Post by SOL »

AstuteShift wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:02 pm If the stocks get delisted you lose all your money in BABa and other Chinese securities

When the risk is that great, I don’t even look at China as being investable

I’d rather just play memes via day trading instead lol
It depends usually, one can move to the OTC, pink sheets, etc. They demand much less foresight, in essence, its the wild wild west, but some ugly ducks can turn into graceful swans
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

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PuppBaby wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 3:52 pm
SOL wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:45 pm
Remote work is the stepping stone to offshoring jobs. As a result office space in the top cities is going to continue being under utilized. This sector of the real estate market is ripe for consolidation
How does one invest on this? Zoom? Telecommunications like VZ/TMobile/AT&T?
I'm all about using what we know to make profit :mrgreen:
I'm investing in Fundrise.com. It's an eREIT. So far I've made a 28% return for the last year (september thru August 2022) since they're buying single family homes and projects in the south. However, a real danger the real estate boom in residential is softening... so buyer beware. Might be good to wait 6 months before diving in.
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Commercial real estate especially office rentals could be in trouble

Post by Triplethought »

PuppBaby wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 3:52 pm
SOL wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:45 pm
Remote work is the stepping stone to offshoring jobs. As a result office space in the top cities is going to continue being under utilized. This sector of the real estate market is ripe for consolidation
How does one invest on this? Zoom? Telecommunications like VZ/TMobile/AT&T?
I'm all about using what we know to make profit :mrgreen:
For what it's worth industrial buildings are doing well in Reno, NV and elsewhere. less than 4% vacancy. I'm keeping 2 industrial buildings but can't afford to buy any more (requires millions). If anyone knows of a REIT investing in western or southern industrial buildings let me know
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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