Fills

[MarkD]

Like I said, ST.

[xkosmox]

Just repurchased a 1/3 SQQQ Aug26 30C @ 5.25. Trying to add to my last trade gains.

Oy vei, this is a dangerous trade, imo - hopefully you've got a stop on it.

Most of my personal indicators are telling me that "risk on" sentiment is on the rise, which usually translates to a rise in the "risk on" indices, like NasComp and Russell, or at least a range-bound market.

Still, could work out ... good luck.

If he repurchased (Bought) a call, and you're seeing from your personal indicators that they could rise, so the call option's value would rise, isn't that good for him?

[xkosmox]

Just repurchased a 1/3 SQQQ Aug26 30C @ 5.25. Trying to add to my last trade gains.

Bit early for this imo, have thought about using sqqq for October time but it is high risk in a volatile market, need to do your sums as ETFs are recalculated daily.

For example if the Nasdaq went down by 10% one day and up 10% the next day, with sqqq you would have 0.91% of your original amount.

I can't use options so this is an option but need to be nimble with it.

Curious about the math here...how did it end up with him having only 0.91% of his original amount left? (Essentially losing 99% of his original amount)

[bpcw]

Like I said, ST.

Missed that!

[bpcw]

Just repurchased a 1/3 SQQQ Aug26 30C @ 5.25. Trying to add to my last trade gains.

Bit early for this imo, have thought about using sqqq for October time but it is high risk in a volatile market, need to do your sums as ETFs are recalculated daily.

For example if the Nasdaq went down by 10% one day and up 10% the next day, with sqqq you would have 0.91% of your original amount.

I can't use options so this is an option but need to be nimble with it.

Curious about the math here...how did it end up with him having only 0.91% of his original amount left? (Essentially losing 99% of his original amount)

Sorry 91% of the original, too much sun today, been on the beach this afternoon, hot in the UK!

[xkosmox]

Oh! Haha no worries. UK's day temperatures now are the same as Singapore's so I can definitely start to imagine how hot it is

[harryg]

I will use the term fancy pants at least twice by the weekend.

Does this mean that a beta of 1 represents the security and index have the same volatility? Or what would beta be if they have the same volatiliy?

Yes it does, and it would be 1.

Similarly, a stock with a beta of less than one is less volatile than the index.

[jlhooter]

I will use the term fancy pants at least twice by the weekend.

Does this mean that a beta of 1 represents the security and index have the same volatility? Or what would beta be if they have the same volatiliy?

Yes it does, and it would be 1.

Similarly, a stock with a beta of less than one is less volatile than the index.

Harry thanks mister fancy pants. Of course I checked the internets right after I asked and now I am an 'expert' on beta.
But seriously I thought about how beta could be useful and I immediately thought about options. Volatility is your friend. I also read about how beta could be a measure of risk and I understand why many say this, I but do not agree since risk is subjective.

[harryg]

I will use the term fancy pants at least twice by the weekend.

Does this mean that a beta of 1 represents the security and index have the same volatility? Or what would beta be if they have the same volatiliy?

Yes it does, and it would be 1.

Similarly, a stock with a beta of less than one is less volatile than the index.

Harry thanks mister fancy pants. Of course I checked the internets right after I asked and now I am an 'expert' on beta.
But seriously I thought about how beta could be useful and I immediately thought about options. Volatility is your friend.

I'm sure you could model that and come up with a trading system called Hooter's Beta Beater.

[SOL]

I'm sure you could model that and come up with a trading system called Hooter's Beta Beater.

Hahaha, you are a master of words, Harry. Only you could come up with something like that

https://youtu.be/G0ZZJXw4MTA

[jlhooter]

But seriously I thought about how beta could be useful and I immediately thought about options. Volatility is your friend.

I'm sure you could model that and come up with a trading system called Hooter's Beta Beater.

"Challenge accepted!"

[Yodean]

If he repurchased (Bought) a call, and you're seeing from your personal indicators that they could rise, so the call option's value would rise, isn't that good for him?

I interpreted his trade as buying a call (i.e. going long) on SQQQ, which is a leveraged short QQQ ETF. So he's shorting the QQQ in essence, more or less (we can quibble about the exact strike and expiration period and the greeks, etc.).

My indicators for "risk on" have all flipped to "on," on a relative basis. Trend is up for equities, imo, or at least neutral with a positive bias. Still will have down days, of course.

[MarkD]

Closed half shortly after the open. Downside break occurred but not strong, yet. 10% loss. Market has a lot of o/h resistance to chew threw. Will keep watching.

Here is a chart of the NDX with volume indicators. VWAP solid lines are from all of the lows (covid bottom and higher). Dashed pink is the ATH.

https://imgur.com/a/Q5m0zpX

[MarkD]

Out for total loss of 14%. It looked right, but risk is what it is. btw, only 40% long as of Friday's close. I have been selling into the rally from a 100% position several weeks ago.

[SOL]

Out for total loss of 14%. It looked right, but risk is what it is. btw, only 40% long as of Friday's close. I have been selling into the rally from a 100% position several weeks ago.

The key to every trade is risk mitigation. If you have an exit strategy (win or lose) then it is easy to live to fight another day.

The big risk factor here is the geopolitical situation. Europe is literally a ticking time bomb in terms of its energy stockpiles and how it is going to get through winter this year.

On a separate note, it is easier to readjust when a market is in a bullish mode as opposed to being in a bearish mode. You can always buy back into a bull market but it's not so easy to get out of a bear market if one overstays one's welcome. In a bull market sector, rotation works to your advantage. So you could miss out on the first stage but still lock in a lot by getting into the sectors that are primed to take off on the next upward leg.