Interim Update July 18, 2022

[Budge]

Haha if it surges upward next month that would be a bigger slap in the face, but I guess an occasional slap in the face is better than a bullet. It has helped wake me up and send a shiver down my spine.

Wouldn't worry about it too much. You win or you learn. You win some, and you lose some. The ultimate victory is to be beyond both victory and defeat.

If I run out of money, I think I will apply to write fortune cookies for a living ...

I fear I'll lose my heating and air guy - he's getting really busy 3D printing/selling Pokémon characters. Already printed and sold couple of T-Rexs, 7ft high by 17ft long. Damn!

[xkosmox]

The July 18 MU update says that if we end the week above SPX 3960, then it leads to a fast and furious rally.

The July 21 AI update says that because the SPX took out initial resistance, it is likely to run into more resistance between 3970 to 4080 and put in a short term top...followed by consolidation into the Thrust phase.

...so short term fast and furious rally or short term top? A bit contradictory or am i missing something.

[SOL]

The July 18 MU update says that if we end the week above SPX 3960, then it leads to a fast and furious rally.

The July 21 AI update says that because the SPX took out initial resistance, it is likely to run into more resistance between 3970 to 4080 and put in a short term top...followed by consolidation into the Thrust phase.

...so short term fast and furious rally or short term top? A bit contradictory or am i missing something.

There is a reason newer updates are sent out, lol . As stated in the welcome package and various other updates. The latest update overrules all other updates.

Another interim update might be posted shortly before the next issue is emailed

[xkosmox]

Hahaha alrite

[bpcw]

The July 18 MU update says that if we end the week above SPX 3960, then it leads to a fast and furious rally.

The July 21 AI update says that because the SPX took out initial resistance, it is likely to run into more resistance between 3970 to 4080 and put in a short term top...followed by consolidation into the Thrust phase.

...so short term fast and furious rally or short term top? A bit contradictory or am i missing something.

There is a reason newer updates are sent out, lol . As stated in the welcome package and various other updates. The latest update overrules all other updates.

Another interim update might be posted shortly before the next issue is emailed

When there are only 3 days apart between updates it can get a little confusing and your left wondering, has the advice changed or is this is a mistake.

What you do a lot of is to write a previous quote in italics and then comment on this previous quote with an update, it would be helpful to do this when your advice has drastically changed and state so and why.

Also note that if someone subscribes to the MU service but not the AI service then they won't have got this change of advice unless you're going to post one on this forum also.

Don't mean to come across overly critical but this is extremely important, especially for those who are less independent and rely more on your advice and especially in these market conditions.

[AstuteShift]

Short term expect volatility, next week is the FED week.

The zone of resistance is there so short term buy puts along with selling call spreads is a great move, if one is quick and nimble

After the dust is clear, August has no FED nonsense so a nice rally should develop up until late September to October. However one has to remain observant, if the geopolitical situation worsens then all bets are off.

After a while, you should develop your instinct, market feel, developing trades on your own. Once the training wheels are off then you become the predator

[bpcw]

Short term expect volatility, next week is the FED week.

The zone of resistance is there so short term buy puts along with selling call spreads is a great move, if one is quick and nimble

After the dust is clear, August has no FED nonsense so a nice rally should develop up until late September to October. However one has to remain observant, if the geopolitical situation worsens then all bets are off.

After a while, you should develop your instinct, market feel, developing trades on your own. Once the training wheels are off then you become the predator

Thanks for advice re the FED or for short tossers!

True once you become adept at investing independently then you don't need to rely on this service as much, however, if you are going to pay for a service then one should be able to offer constructive criticism/improvements. TI service is excellent but Sol is up for improvements where it doesn't impact too much on the overall service. Also though the recent change in advice didn't effect me I do think about how it might affect others.

Effective communication is paramount with investment advice in volatile markets, surely.

[SOL]

I am surprised no one noticed that one quote was from MU and the other was from AI service. I just responded quickly but the main point is until another update is posted here or sent out for the MU service, the last one should be followed. It is dangerous and problematic to mix Service A with Service B.

So the problem is not communication but a misunderstanding, as in mixing A with B. An interim update will be posted here and a larger version will be emailed shortly; never ever MIX one service with another unless you are looking for a fruit salad

[bpcw]

I am surprised no one noticed that one quote was from MU and the other was from AI service. I just responded quickly but the main point is until another update is posted here or sent out for the MU service, the last one should be followed. It is dangerous and problematic to mix Service A with Service B.

So the problem is not communication but a misunderstanding, as in mixing A with B. An interim update will be posted here and a larger version will be emailed shortly; never ever MIX one service with another unless you are looking for a fruit salad

Firstly I'm always looking for a fruit salad, oooooh yes yummy!

So you always state that one should adapt the services to ones own investment style. So let's say I like to invest in an SPX index fund, you state in one service that at SPX 4000 it is likely to thrust higher and in another service at SPX 4000 it is likely to pull back, if I subscribe to both services then isn't it to be expected that I'm a little confused.

I would rather a menu state chicken or beef not bicken or cheef, but better than most services which are a dogs dinner!

[AstuteShift]

Short term expect volatility, next week is the FED week.

The zone of resistance is there so short term buy puts along with selling call spreads is a great move, if one is quick and nimble

After the dust is clear, August has no FED nonsense so a nice rally should develop up until late September to October. However one has to remain observant, if the geopolitical situation worsens then all bets are off.

After a while, you should develop your instinct, market feel, developing trades on your own. Once the training wheels are off then you become the predator

Thanks for advice re the FED or for short tossers!

True once you become adept at investing independently then you don't need to rely on this service as much, however, if you are going to pay for a service then one should be able to offer constructive criticism/improvements. TI service is excellent but Sol is up for improvements where it doesn't impact too much on the overall service. Also though the recent change in advice didn't effect me I do think about how it might affect others.

Effective communication is paramount with investment advice in volatile markets, surely.

The market analysis alone is priceless information, no one called the Covid crash, dollar bull as decisive as SOLs team

I tend to listen to a AI voice repeatedly with the updates, write down my ideas on the journal also, it’s quite funny with SOLs rants on the masses

[bpcw]

The market analysis alone is priceless information, no one called the Covid crash, dollar bull as decisive as SOLs team

Totally agree!

[LoriPrecisely]

I am surprised no one noticed that one quote was from MU and the other was from AI service. I just responded quickly but the main point is until another update is posted here or sent out for the MU service, the last one should be followed. It is dangerous and problematic to mix Service A with Service B.

So the problem is not communication but a misunderstanding, as in mixing A with B. An interim update will be posted here and a larger version will be emailed shortly; never ever MIX one service with another unless you are looking for a fruit salad

It can be problematic and confusing at times to mix services, such as with AMD. One service said to sell, the other to buy. It seems to me the advice in both, or the attempt at predictions should be similar.

[LoriPrecisely]

The July 18 MU update says that if we end the week above SPX 3960, then it leads to a fast and furious rally.

The July 21 AI update says that because the SPX took out initial resistance, it is likely to run into more resistance between 3970 to 4080 and put in a short term top...followed by consolidation into the Thrust phase.

...so short term fast and furious rally or short term top? A bit contradictory or am i missing something.

Yesterday, the market hit the numbers listed for a fast and furious rally. I sold lots of Puts thinking I would be safe. But, alas, today the market dropped again. So, I bought them all back, with a profit, I might add.
I have not read the AI update yet.

Something I took note of yesterday...I have been selling AFRM puts for a month. I have netted $487. If I had bought the stock at the time I sold the first Put back in June, and held and then sold yesterday, I would have profited $500. If I would have restrained from selling until today, I would have only profited $275. Since I have only been selling Puts, and not buying stocks, I have added $487 dollars to my account, and it doesn't disappear.
I could see just trading options, and not owning any stocks, except for wheeling.

[Yodean]

I could see just trading options, and not owning any stocks, except for wheeling.

There are advantages to various approaches. Trading options takes more time, and subjects you to more taxes, generally speaking.

To this day, and I've been in this game for close to two decades, the richest and most successful retail investors I personally know have all been mostly HODLers of good large cap stocks and real estate, and who generally don't trade that much.

Also if they inherit a huge sum and then put it into the aforementioned, and don't get divorced too much, they tend to do really well. Once in a while some of them makes a big move and sells a huge portion of their holdings to buy something else. Breathtaking to watch, really.

The pure option dudettes will have a few outstanding years or months here and there, but generally don't do as well over the long-term. They also tend to have more health-drinking-drug issues ... I think the volatility of constantly trading pure, leveraged options over a certain time period wears them down. Even some of the younger YT option traders who post a lot of teaching videos seemed to have visibly decompensated somewhat in the last several months - it's somewhat fun to watch, as well. Some of the younger ones used to sound somewhat cocky - the whole everybody's a genius in a bull market thing, throwing around predictions using Greeks, etc. Could just be a mild correlation, not causation, of course.

With that said, the Wheel is a nice addition to HODL'ing and swing-trading a basket of stocks. Will see if the Cannonball Technique works, as it appears to suit my personality, on paper at least.

Funny fact - even taking into account stock dividends, gold has outperformed all three major stock indices in the last twenty years. A bit of curve-fitting on my part, but still ...

[AstuteShift]

Trading options often will wear you out, no doubt about it.

I’ve been taking more vacation often this year, now that the 4th quarter is almost here, it’s time to turn on the engine lol.

While options do appear fun and games, it’s wise to separate them from your long term hold portfolios.