Interim Update July 18, 2022

[SOL]

The Dow triggered another Minor buy signal. A much more robust and potent will be triggered if the Dow can end the week above 31,900 or the SPX ends the week at or above 3960. Either one of these developments should lead to a fast and furious rally. One of the indices might even spike to new highs, while the others put in lower highs. Unless the pattern changes (dramatically), this rally

Aggressive players can use all pullbacks ranging in the 380 to 510 ranges to open additional longs or swing trade via leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ, UWM, XBI, etc

The momentum is shifting to the upside, and the markets should generally trend upwards for the next two weeks.

[Expert]

The Dow triggered another Minor buy signal. A much more robust and potent will be triggered if the Dow can end the week above 31,900 or the SPX ends the week at or above 3960. Either one of these developments should lead to a fast and furious rally. One of the indices might even spike to new highs, while the others put in lower highs. Unless the pattern changes (dramatically), this rally

Aggressive players can use all pullbacks ranging in the 380 to 510 ranges to open additional longs or swing trade via leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ, UWM, XBI, etc

The momentum is shifting to the upside, and the markets should generally trend upwards for the next two weeks.

is the last part of the first paragraph missing ?

[LoriPrecisely]

Are we only expecting this rally to last for 2 weeks?

Is this when we try to sell our shares to be 90% in cash?

[LoriPrecisely]

The Dow triggered another Minor buy signal. A much more robust and potent will be triggered if the Dow can end the week above 31,900 or the SPX ends the week at or above 3960. Either one of these developments should lead to a fast and furious rally. One of the indices might even spike to new highs, while the others put in lower highs. Unless the pattern changes (dramatically), this rally

Aggressive players can use all pullbacks ranging in the 380 to 510 ranges to open additional longs or swing trade via leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ, UWM, XBI, etc

The momentum is shifting to the upside, and the markets should generally trend upwards for the next two weeks.

is the last part of the first paragraph missing ?

Yep, appears that way.

[pbsheth1]

XBI was down a lot today.
(Para 2) This rally... does not have legs??
What happens after 2 weeks IF there is a strong rally?
The update is very cryptic, it seems

[SOL]

Are we only expecting this rally to last for 2 weeks?

Is this when we try to sell our shares to be 90% in cash?

If the trend is up for 6 months, no market will rally every day for 6 months. So the market is expected to generally over a 2 week period. Then experience some volatility before it resumes its upward trend. The focus should be on the fact that a top is expected towards Sept/Oct.

[Expert]

Are we only expecting this rally to last for 2 weeks?

Is this when we try to sell our shares to be 90% in cash?

If the trend is up for 6 months, no market will rally every day for 6 months. So the market is expected to generally over a 2 week period. Then experience some volatility before it resumes its upward trend. The focus should be on the fact that a top is expected towards Sept/Oct.

after the expected top occurs in sept/oct, then a big correction will happen.
so, is the plan to sell at the top in sept/oct, then buy back during the subsequent correction ?
or continue holding and not sell, and then use the subsequent correction to add to your current positions?

[DrSven]

after the expected top occurs in sept/oct, then a big correction will happen.
so, is the plan to sell at the top in sept/oct, then buy back during the subsequent correction ?
or continue holding and not sell, and then use the subsequent correction to add to your current positions?

Theoretically yes, sell at the top, buy at the bottom. But Remember that market timing does not work. Focus on your risk tolerance and find your balance between selling to buy back later and holding through.

I still have some cash and I will try to increase it towards sept/oct. But I won‘t sell everything no matter what to fully bet on the top. Even if I cannot increase cash, I could hold through my current positions and pick up some good deals.

[SOL]

after the expected top occurs in sept/oct, then a big correction will happen.
so, is the plan to sell at the top in sept/oct, then buy back during the subsequent correction ?
or continue holding and not sell, and then use the subsequent correction to add to your current positions?

Theoretically yes, sell at the top, buy at the bottom. But Remember that market timing does not work. Focus on your risk tolerance and find your balance between selling to buy back later and holding through.

I still have some cash and I will try to increase it towards sept/oct. But I won‘t sell everything no matter what to fully bet on the top. Even if I cannot increase cash, I could hold through my current positions and pick up some good deals.

You are modifying and adapting the strategy to suit your needs, which is highly commendable. This is precisely what everyone should aim for, as it is the best strategy. Nobody knows your needs as you do. We provide general suggestions as it is impossible to cater to everyone.

[AstuteShift]

Personally I’ve been getting in Nasdaq futures and QQQ calls. I will relax around late august and September, be in cash.

[Yodean]

Personally I’ve been getting in Nasdaq futures and QQQ calls. I will relax around late august and September, be in cash.

Among other trades, I've been SCP'ing TMF, TQQQ, HIMX, TSM, Skynet, INTC, and FXI with strikes just below market on their down days, and SCC'ing available shares on corresponding up days. Closing those trades when appropriate.

[LoriPrecisely]

The Dow triggered another Minor buy signal. A much more robust and potent will be triggered if the Dow can end the week above 31,900 or the SPX ends the week at or above 3960. Either one of these developments should lead to a fast and furious rally. One of the indices might even spike to new highs, while the others put in lower highs. Unless the pattern changes (dramatically), this rally

Aggressive players can use all pullbacks ranging in the 380 to 510 ranges to open additional longs or swing trade via leveraged ETFs such as TQQQ, UWM, XBI, etc

The momentum is shifting to the upside, and the markets should generally trend upwards for the next two weeks.

Sol, the first paragraph ended with a cliff hanger. Will you please end the suspense?

[LoriPrecisely]

Personally I’ve been getting in Nasdaq futures and QQQ calls. I will relax around late august and September, be in cash.

Among other trades, I've been SCP'ing TMF, TQQQ, HIMX, TSM, Skynet, INTC, and FXI with strikes just below market on their down days, and SCC'ing available shares on corresponding up days. Closing those trades when appropriate.

The market really rallied today. Makes for much more interesting plays.
I sold a lot of Puts today very close to market because I would not mind owning, rather wish I did because of the ensuing rally, but if I don't by expiry on Friday, I make some money anyway.
I much prefer Puts over Calls, because I don't want my shares to get called away.
I need to get accustomed to the Wheel strategy, and just let them go, and then buy more.

[Yodean]

I much prefer Puts over Calls, because I don't want my shares to get called away.

About shares being called away:

-set the SCC strike a little (or a lot) higher than what the stock is likely to reach during any particular expiration period; you'll make less in terms of premiums, but the shares are less likely to be called away;

-you could always close the option play before expiry, then SCC further out in time and strike price to cover the costs of closing the original SCC trade; you'll usually end up with a net credit, depending on how you set up the trades;

-let the shares get called away, wait for a minor pullback, and buy the shares back directly at the price (or lower) at which they were called away at;

-after shares get called away, SCP the stock w/ strike at or below the price at which the shares were called away at;

-let the shares get called away (presumably at a profit); take a portion of the profits and buy 1 OTM LEAPs of the stock for every 100 shares or so that were called away;

-many "options" if shares called away ...

[PuppBaby]

I want to get some opinions on VZ stock, earnings report coming this Friday AM. I am tempted to buy some $51 or $52 call. They are currently dirt cheap at pennies expiring this Friday, generally I know its a bad idea to buy a call on the other side of a earnings report but I am tempted regardless

I guess $200 loss wont hurt