Chinas future

[AstuteShift]

I figured to start off this thread, to discuss China and whether they will be the next superpower or just another garbage emerging market power lol

My own analysis is that I don’t think China will be the next superpower at all at this timeline and beyond but rather collapse slowly.

First is the evergrande fiasco and it’s ghost cities. Chinese citizens in general don’t trade their stock market and park it into real estate however we are starting to see that it is cracking and perhaps this is just the beginning. Also remember in China, if you don’t pay the mortgage you will be blacklisted and unable to use high speed bullet trains or fly

Another is a demographic issue, the one child policy turned to a three child policy and many of the youth there are in the flat line movement which is no kids, no mortgage and no marriage. This is a problem that will not be easy to fix

Another is the retarded zero Covid policy, complete disaster. If you start to hear more revolts against the CCP then It’s government will collapse

Now the west does not trust China whatsoever, their goal is to conquer all of Southeast Asia, I’d say good luck with that. America and China are likely to be in a Cold War also to possibly hot war soon. I hope not but I don’t rely on hope

Their rate of change of debt to GDP is insane, it’s not sustainable, also Chinas GDP numbers are a complete lie. All communist countries lie about their prospects and fudge their numbers

When it comes to trading and investing, imho Chinese securities are a no go, they can be de listed at a moments notice and you won’t have time to pull out. Also the amount of accounting fraud in Chinese companies is tremendous, huge scam

A lot of Chinese espionage being exposed, once the Cold War starts then even more will get exposed

Another is the rampant shadow banking, wallstreet has some leverage now with their banks in China and if you allow a foreign bank to get some power eventually that country will crumble

Remember, this is just my opinion and observation. I’m long US since the dollar and its military might, AI tech is supreme.

I don’t see how China can survive but anything is possible, Russia is also the wild card also.

What’s your opinion, guys and gals?

[Yodean]

I don't think of China "taking over" the top dog role that the U.S. currently holds as much as I see the West decaying, and China continuing to rise slowly and quietly on the world stage by playing its monetary and political cards right, more or less.

I see King USD reigning supreme for about another 7-10 years or so, before potentially some type of Bretton Woods 3 reset in the early 2030s with the digital yuan playing a more significant role at that time.

In a sense, one may view Russia as functioning to accelerate the decline and chaos in Western Europe. Some of this will spill over to the U.S., but China is benefitting from the current chaos on the Grand Chessboard. Russia is acting like a bit of a strongman for the CCP, keeping the West distracted and burning the latter's resources, while China atm is looking pretty good, able to buy valuable commodities from Russia at a discount.

It's an uneasy alliance between Russia and China - historically, they aren't exactly the best of friends. Still, politics make strange bedfellows, as current circumstances exemplify. Ultimately, I see Russia's primary role as weakening and distracting the West, while China slowly accumulates more power, mostly politically and financially.

The top echelon of the CCP generally prefer to win slowly by political and economic means, as opposed to kinetic warfare. So I don't see China invading a bunch of places in Asia with their pretty pathetic military. It'll be more about financial deals, etc.

The BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) will be very important. China will have tremendous influence over Africa.

As for their insane zero-cv19 policy, etc., there may be hidden reasons beneath the surface - the CCP doesn't care about the welfare of their population, to put it mildly, but the zero-cv19 policies did accomplish a few things, including controlling their own inflation rate, hurting the West more through supply-chain disruptions, as well as the continuation of beating down the domestic population to accept more and more draconian surveillance measures (which is also occurring in the West, albeit in more disguised form).

[AstuteShift]

The BRI I think to be a Trojan horse designed as a debt trap to enable China to gain control over critical resources while expanding military bases and control SEA and Africa.

Another is I don’t think Russia and China can do anything against the USA. An dictator regime and communist psychopaths don’t really promote innovation or free market forces, then again one could argue we are not in a free market but more of an illusion of free market, at least in western countries.

The dollar strangle hold will be king for a while, America knows this and America would rather go to WAR first before allowing any type of collapse of their empire, it’s just fitting for the yanks to do this.

In regards to their Covid policy COVID – China launched COVID, zero-COVID policy a disaster and highlights need to move supply chain away from China. It is also causing Chinese to protest due to food shortages and concentration camp-like living conditions in Shanghai and other cities since April 2022

If we start to hear more civil unrest or revolution, the CCP could be toppled over for the most part.

Then again this is just my observation lol

[Yodean]

The BRI I think to be a Trojan horse designed as a debt trap to enable China to gain control over critical resources while expanding military bases and control SEA and Africa.

Another is I don’t think Russia and China can do anything against the USA. An dictator regime and communist psychopaths don’t really promote innovation or free market forces, then again one could argue we are not in a free market but more of an illusion of free market, at least in western countries.

The dollar strangle hold will be king for a while, America knows this and America would rather go to WAR first before allowing any type of collapse of their empire, it’s just fitting for the yanks to do this.

In regards to their Covid policy COVID – China launched COVID, zero-COVID policy a disaster and highlights need to move supply chain away from China. It is also causing Chinese to protest due to food shortages and concentration camp-like living conditions in Shanghai and other cities since April 2022

If we start to hear more civil unrest or revolution, the CCP could be toppled over for the most part.

Then again this is just my observation lol

It's a very important topic. I have similar views as you do on China for the most part, with the exception being the idea that the CCP is easily toppled. The modern CCP isn't quite what is portrayed in mainstream media - they've evolved a bit. They give their people just enough freedom and hope that outright mass revolt is less likely - a hardened version of the Happy Cow (Slave) theory, one might say.

Everyone's mostly talking about Russia these days, but the focus should be more on China, imo.

Hopefully we hear a bit from fellow subs Symbios and Xkosmox on this topic, since they are in the region (Singapore).

[harryg]

I've never been truly convinced by the China story, for several (admittedly not very deeply considered) reasons.

The main one is that shares, companies and people can disappear overnight. Also, as you rightly point out, you cannot believe anything financial. Tencent looks like a good one to me, but how can you tell?

Secondly, a structural reason. One cannot ignore demographics. The demographics of China are very poor and almost resemble that of Japan.

Thirdly, a dictatorship lives primarily for power and control of citizens. I don't easily see China making close alliances with any other country if it would involve relinquishing power.

Now none of that means that they can't be the next superpower. They are very good at taking over countries by stealth. Look at the Sri Lanka story. In Africa, they regularly invest in infrastructure in exchange for mineral rights. This seems to me to be a very sensible long term initiative (for them). Demographics can be "solved" by mass immigration and so on.

I have shares in a fund called Scottish Mortgage - the managers there report that there is indeed a lot of innovation in China (not just copying), which is another good sign for China. (I don't know if there is a lot of innovation in Russia - normally, when you grow up in a strictly controlled environment, there is not).

[AstuteShift]

Everyone assumes the CCP is intelligent and on the ball but they made a series of errors and no communist country has ever really surpass the American Empire.

I’m sure wallstreet is planning a global financial crisis, sell Chinese bonds to foreign investors and cause a 2009 style financial crisis, global style

Also the deglobalization trend is in full force, China cannot be trusted, the time to make money on China really was when they joined the WTO in the early 2000s but given how Trump started the tarrif and trade dispute, this was just the beginning.

Chinese stocks, sure you can trade them but I wouldn’t dream of holding them long term. I view them as crypto now, high reward high risk and high risk of being delisted lol

I see no way China will allow immigration like in the west, perhaps abuse the BRI to get labor but that’s about it. Who the hell wants to move to China with this fiasco happening lol?

With all these issues, I can’t see any way the Chinese can go to the top, all that remains is time to see what will happen

[LoriPrecisely]

I don't really want to deviate from the economic perspective of this discussion, but this video was quite disturbing for me.
It seems the CCP has ingrained the idea that Power is The Almighty. Is it no wonder that the young men are mimicking what they see the elders doing? They want to be dominating, even if it means picking on the physically weaker female? What kind of a 'cult'ure have they created? It seems to me like they are imploding.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WETjjz69RQ

[AstuteShift]

I don't really want to deviate from the economic perspective of this discussion, but this video was quite disturbing for me. It seems the CCP has ingrained the idea that Power is The Almighty. Is it no wonder that the young men are mimicking what they see the elders doing? They want to be dominating, even if it means picking on the physically weaker female? What kind of a 'cult'ure have they created? It seems to me like they are imploding.

Can’t see the video lol but it’s relevant to the discussion

In the Chinese culture ( not to be insulting, please correct me if I’m wrong), I noticed that scamming and predatory loans is normal since the people, majority of them, are in extreme poverty and live in very harsh conditions, they have to do what is necessary unlike the soft woke kids in western countries

Also there is no safety net like in the west.

Let’s not forget the humanity crimes the CCP commits, the organ trafficking, the education camps and also the 100 million plus cameras everywhere to spy on your every move

I’m surprised how the CCP did not collapse yet but if they continue with stupid zero Covid policies, or comparable policies then eventually it’s stronghold will collapse, in my opinion

The only thing that can crush this CCP regime is a mass revolt, once the people go hungry and lose everything then heads will roll

Let’s also not forget the criminal wallstreet bankers facilitating or orchestrating another possible financial collapse on a global scale and abusing China to make a debt crisis. The timeline of this I’m not sure of but likely will correlate when the masses are beyond ecstatic and jumping for joy.

SOL talks about Dow targets of 100k and Nasdaq 60k, likely a global debt crisis will trigger the next financial crisis. Don’t mean to scare anyone but all good parties come to an end eventually

[Yodean]

https://youtu.be/r5qZoT6bbJo

*****

Xi plays 4D Go while simultaneously chewing gum and killing a dissident or three, while Putin's a decent chess player at best, if a bit old-fashioned.

Ice water is too warm to flow through Xi's veins, while Vlad's a bit nostalgic for the past.

Only one will still be in power in 2025.

[AstuteShift]

https://youtu.be/r5qZoT6bbJo

*****

Xi plays 4D Go while simultaneously chewing gum and killing a dissident or three, while Putin's a decent chess player at best, if a bit old-fashioned.

Ice water is too warm to flow through Xi's veins, while Vlad's a bit nostalgic for the past.

Only one will still be in power in 2025.

I’d say both will lose, only a matter of time until wallstreet infects Russia, China is already infected

America will go to war if the power is truly lost. Let’s see what time will tell us though

I’m no supporter of any nation but rather just stating what I’ve been observing

[SOL]

Up to maybe 12 months ago. I would agree with both of (Astute and Yodean), unfortunately, you guys are using one of your best assets (the world-class logical mind of a scorpion) in the wrong manner. At this point, you have reached the limit of your level 3 thinking. No matter how hard you try to now, the outcome will prove to be negative not for lack of effort but for lack of depth. In order to see the very large picture, you need to step it up to at least level 3.5

So here are some points to consider or mull over

1) Even if Putin were to die tomorrow it will not affect the long-term trend or trajectory. The main one is that the collective West (Old West) is dying and in a Super downtrend that might end in 39 to 45 years with a lot of extraordinary good luck. They have several contingency plans in place if something were to happen to Putin or whoever happens to be in charge of Russia at any given moment

2) Some were asking if Russia leads in anything. It leads to a host of things. Rocket engines for one. Its aviation is going to make a massive comeback, but it dominates in Aerospace air defence; there is no defence system in the world that comes even close to competing with Russian Air Defence. Pound for pound its planes are much better than our fighter jets, they cost a fraction to create and even less to maintain. In Missile technology, it's now the world's leader

3) it is one of the top plays if not the top player in Nuclear Tech.

4) Uranium enrichment for nuclear; It's another top player in this area. Combined Russia and Kazakstan supply the US with 50% of its uranium needs

5) it has the world's largest supply of fresh water, and probably the largest supply of arable land. It technically boasts the largest supply of oil but because a lot of the oil is hard oil it's not listed in the reserves.

when the war broke out I allocated 20% of my free time initially to study this issue in depth. Once I noticed it was worth looking into, I upped it to 50% to look at this topic from multiple angles. After looking at it from those angles another angle or two would open up. I would say that I have easily put in a good 450-plus hour into researching this matter since March. Add a minimum of 15 and a maximum of 50 hours per week to that number from July.


When I talk about the Sino-Russo relationship I am not talking between Dim Sum eaters and Shashlik eaters (average Russian to Average Chinese) but I am talking about the relationship at the top levels. Russians don't break contracts unless you betray them and history indicates that Russians always seek vengeance but they serve their revenge cold and with lethal planning. No nation has been able to conquer Russia for over 1000 years.

Now let's move to the Chinese. They also tend to honour their deals. Through turbulent times they have stood by North Korea. When the USSR collapsed, China was in a position to take all the lands they had lost but they did not. Instead, they offered a then weakened Russia a helping hand.

We have moved to a new Era and China knows it. Economic might will no longer make you number 1. It is military might and China will at least for another 100 years never equal the Russians in terms of Military and pure Industrial Might. So they would rather dance with the Russians they attempt a war

Lastly, trends cannot be interrupted. Russia is now in Super Uptrend, such a trend will remain in motion with or without Putin. The first phase of a super trend can be slow, sometimes the pace can be almost glacial, but we are in different times, where trends are accelerating so we have that



In other news

https://youtu.be/vZoxqltgS0Y
Om a separate note when you look at how the Chinese from Young to old respond to a set of questions, you can actually see they put some effort into using their brain before responding, unlike the average westerner who seems to focus more on the sphincter muscles located in the Anus with very little success

[symbios]

Now let's move to the Chinese.They also tend to honour their deals. Through turbulent times they have stood by North Korea. When the USSR collapsed, China was in a position to take all the lands they had lost but they did not. Instead they offered a then weakened Russia a helping hand.

China, North Korea, USSR all had 1 thing in common and that’s communism. They were being isolated together. You can’t say China is honoring any deals. There is no honor. Only benefits. World politics always put benefits for oneself above all else. Every country is trying to advance their own agenda for their own benefits. It’s the same as Microsoft pumping money into Apple to ensure their competitor stays afloat. China needs NK to be around. A united Korea is not good for them. Geographically, maintaining NK as a threat to South Korea is necessary. As for helping Russia, again, it’s about the benefits and strategic gains. There is no honor when they starved their own people. There is also no honor to the things they do to their own people.

[SOL]

Now let's move to the Chinese.They also tend to honour their deals. Through turbulent times they have stood by North Korea. When the USSR collapsed, China was in a position to take all the lands they had lost but they did not. Instead they offered a then weakened Russia a helping hand.

China, North Korea, USSR all had 1 thing in common and that’s communism. They were being isolated together. You can’t say China is honoring any deals. There is no honor. Only benefits. World politics always put benefits for oneself above all else. Every country is trying to advance their own agenda for their own benefits. It’s the same as Microsoft pumping money into Apple to ensure their competitor stays afloat. China needs NK to be around. A united Korea is not good for them. Geographically, maintaining NK as a threat to South Korea is necessary. As for helping Russia, again, it’s about the benefits and strategic gains. There is no honor when they starved their own people. There is also no honor to the things they do to their own people.

I can't fault your analysis. nothing wrong with it, but you are mixing angles. There is honour between two countries, or cultures etc, but that does not mean the same nations need to or will honour their people. In the absolute sense, you are correct, there is no honour between countries they are just looking out for their best options.

Hence this is where key strengths come into play. Like the Russians, the Chinese understand and respect real power when it is used justly. Justice is a broad word when it comes to politics. So let's put it this way. The Chinese understand that if the Russians are betrayed they won't ask for an apology after a certain red line is breached. They will extract that apology in blood and Gold. The saying the enemy of my enemy is my Friend kind of applies to the Russians and Chinese. Let's say the west is neutralized as a threat. Well, then the saying goes that China could backstab Russia as they will be much stronger economically. Yes economically perhaps but not militarily.

Russia could and while most people don't believe it can cause so much damage to China without using one nuclear bomb. With its conventional load of weapons and tech, it could push China at least to the Bronze age. Hence China will not risk a serious event with Russia. However, there are and will continue to be issues that are not always resolved to each nation's liking, We are not talking about best friends type of relationship here, but a relationship that is and will continue to be of strategic value to both and that is why they will honour their deals. Right now there is no strategic partnership with the US. There are only two positions, Slave and master, the Master Slot is filled so that leaves only the slave slot

[AstuteShift]

Interesting stance on Russia, although I do not initially agree with it, I have to take some time to absorb. Currently they do have europe by the balls, if they don’t negotiate soon then europe is entering the dark ages.

I do agree that the west is falling apart, however I do not have the foresight, experience or depth of SOLs thinking

I’ve been thinking too linearly and just focusing on China however I’m thinking like a Wallstreet analyst instead of an observer lol

Can China and Russia challenge the USA? For sure, however I’m somewhat skeptical. In terms of a war, absolutely the US cannot challenge them both at the same time

Another point is that I’m disgusted by authoritarian and communist regimes so thats also tinting my analysis. I’ll start to focus more on the bigger picture

[Yodean]

The heads of MI5 and FBI warned of the growing long-term threat posed by China to UK and U.S. interests, in their first joint appearance on Wednesday.

MI5 Director General Ken McCallum said the service has already "more than doubled our previously-constrained effort against Chinese activity of concern," adding it was running seven times as many investigations as in 2018.

FBI Director Christopher Wray said that the Chinese government "poses the biggest long-term threat" to economic and national security, for the UK, the U.S. and allies in Europe and elsewhere.

Wray warned that the Chinese government "poses an even more serious threat to Western businesses than even many sophisticated businesspeople realize," and is "set on stealing your technology."

The Chinese governement's hacking program is "bigger than that of every other major country combined," according to Wray.

"The widespread Western assumption that growing prosperity within China and increasing connectivity with the West would automatically lead to greater political freedom has, I'm afraid, been shown to be plain wrong," McCallum said.

"The allegations against China by U.S. and UK intelligence officials are completely groundless and the so-called cases they listed are pure shadow chasing," a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the UK said, in response to a question about the comments made by McCallum and Wray.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-07-07/H ... China.html

*****

The Shadow Panda will soon smack around a weakened Bald Eagle ...