what if this time is actually different?

[Yodean]

Right now on Disbelief

Yeap, my sentiments exactly. We're likely in the "Disbelief" zone ... could spend some time there - the whole "Battle of the Trenches" thing. It's not going to be quite as "V-shaped" as March '20 onwards was ...

[SOL]

Right now on Disbelief

Yeap, my sentiments exactly. We're likely in the "Disbelief" zone ... could spend some time there - the whole "Battle of the Trenches" thing. It's not going to be quite as "V-shaped" as March '20 onwards was ...

It probably won't be V-shaped, but the subsequent rally could repeat what took place from 2009 to 2016. After the housing crash, the crowd was demoralised,(t officially started around June of 2007 though the real action started around October to November 2007) and lasted until March 2009. However, look at how long the subsequent bullish phase lasted. It lasted until roughly 2016, which roughly 5X longer than the corrective phase. The correction lasted for roughly 15 months. The rally phase lasted for roughly 80 months

[Yodean]

It probably won't be V-shaped, but the subsequent rally could repeat what took place from 2009 to 2016. After the housing crash, the crowd was demoralised,(t officially started around June of 2007 though the real action started around October to November 2007) and lasted until March 2009. However, look at how long the subsequent bullish phase lasted. It lasted until roughly 2016, which roughly 5X longer than the corrective phase. The correction lasted for roughly 15 months. The rally phase lasted for roughly 80 months

I have to take another, closer look at 2009 to 2016. Atm, it feels a bit like Fall-Winter of 1998, to me. Would fit a huge blow-off top in Q4 or so followed by another massacre of sorts sometime after. The geopolitical news, sentiment, etc. in 1998 seem somewhat similar to now. With all the extra $$$ and leverage in the system, perhaps more like '98 on 'roids.

[Budge]

It probably won't be V-shaped, but the subsequent rally could repeat what took place from 2009 to 2016. After the housing crash, the crowd was demoralised,(t officially started around June of 2007 though the real action started around October to November 2007) and lasted until March 2009. However, look at how long the subsequent bullish phase lasted. It lasted until roughly 2016, which roughly 5X longer than the corrective phase. The correction lasted for roughly 15 months. The rally phase lasted for roughly 80 months

I have to take another, closer look at 2009 to 2016. Atm, it feels a bit like Fall-Winter of 1998, to me. Would fit a huge blow-off top in Q4 or so followed by another massacre of sorts sometime after. The geopolitical news, sentiment, etc. in 1998 seem somewhat similar to now. With all the extra $$$ and leverage in the system, perhaps more like '98 on 'roids.

"Demoralised" "Massacre". That's the music to my ears that I want to hear.

[Eric]

.....

I've been holding up mentally really well so far........

"but what if this time is actually different?"

The PTB are running out of time to make things slightly less painful before the election... Unless they don't need to because 2020 was the last thing remotely resembling an election... With Trump endorsing communists like Dr. Oz maybe they don't need to keep any democrats in congress because literally everyone in the Senate that is not named Ron Johnson hates us all with every fiber of their being and wants to murder us...

I already have 5 lots deployed in TQQQ and don't have a full lot of cash left in my hellfire account... I could transfer some cash from savings "but what if this time is actually different?"

It's costing me $50+ in gas every time I mow the lawn now... Daycare raised tuition by $200 a month compared to 2 years ago and are now hitting us up for a separate "summer activity fee" to pay for all the things that used to be included in the base tuition... I'm going to need that money in savings soon if this keeps up...

[MarkD]

I feel your pain. My accounts are down 20% but I know this will end. And we have enough to carry us for several years so it's different than the younger folks.

This too shall pass.

On another note, my car was on the receiving end of a vehicle which backed into to my front grill. All of the front end is mushed, except headlights. Grill, hood, and the body panels. All cosmetic. It occurred in late April.

I was told not to worry about getting an estimate by the shop, and the insurance agreed. Yesterday, the day I arranged dropoff, I came home and was notified via text and email repairs would be complete within two weeks.

Before I could grab a beer the shop called to tell me GM won't release the parts, which are available. I confirmed this with GM today. Now I am on the hook and no idea when repairs will be completed. Totally f*#?!d up.

Not as important as your personal situation but I needed to vent.

[Yodean]

.....
I've been holding up mentally really well so far........
"but what if this time is actually different?"

Yeh, it's a been a pretty epic drawdown for most, I suspect. BOTT (Battle Of The Trenches).

March '20 was more like a quick, precise knockdown punch to most investors, but this year's been more like a Death By A Thousand Cuts.

The main thing to remember, for me at least, is that there is a sh*tload of $$$ on the sidelines, waiting to move in.

As a minor example, the reverse repo. market just hit >$2 trillion USD recently. That ain't normal, neither here nor in Kansas. All of that money, plus foreign money, is going to come flooding into the USD-denominated markets. Oh, the yen is crashing too, so a lot of $$$ from the East is going to try to find some safe shelter in the U.S. equity and bond markets. It'll take some time.

[SOL]

I feel your pain. My accounts are down 20% but I know this will end. And we have enough to carry us for several years so it's different than the younger folks.

This too shall pass.

On another note, my car was on the receiving end of a vehicle which backed into to my front grill. All of the front end is mushed, except headlights. Grill, hood, and the body panels. All cosmetic. It occurred in late April.

I was told not to worry about getting an estimate by the shop, and the insurance agreed. Yesterday, the day I arranged dropoff, I came home and was notified via text and email repairs would be complete within two weeks.

Before I could grab a beer the shop called to tell me GM won't release the parts, which are available. I confirmed this with GM today. Now I am on the hook and no idea when repairs will be completed. Totally f*#?!d up.

Not as important as your personal situation but I needed to vent.

Is that legal. Aren't they under obligation to release the parts? There is simply no honour in anything anymore and I can attest this is far truer in the West than in other countries, but it's catching up to places that are trying to mimic the west.

I have to agree with you it's really shit You are told it's okay then you are sorry dude you are on your own just bend over and join the pack, so many are getting F****D that we ran out of vaseline

[SOL]

.....
I've been holding up mentally really well so far........
"but what if this time is actually different?"

Yeh, it's a been a pretty epic drawdown for most, I suspect. BOTT (Battle Of The Trenches).

March '20 was more like a quick, precise knockdown punch to most investors, but this year's been more like a Death By A Thousand Cuts.

The main thing to remember, for me at least, is that there is a sh*tload of $$$ on the sidelines, waiting to move in.

As a minor example, the reverse repo. market just hit >$2 trillion USD recently. That ain't normal, neither here nor in Kansas. All of that money, plus foreign money, is going to come flooding into the USD-denominated markets. Oh, the yen is crashing too, so a lot of $$$ from the East is going to try to find some safe shelter in the U.S. equity and bond markets. It'll take some time.

The move to defang and De-money (made that up, but it's akin to deworming, only this time they take your money) the populace is underway. Not too long, I mentioned that the goal is now to have only 1-3% own everything as opposed to the old 90-10 ratio. With that ratio, there was enough money to trickle down to create a decent middle, upper-middle and elite middle class. All these middle classes and the bottom layers of the elite are getting trimmed or taken out. However, you can't take out everyone, so there will be those that will survive in each of those levels. However, the goal of changing the field into 96 to 3 or 99 to 1 will come about. Hence this war of attrition. It should have commenced in stages, with the first stage starting in the 4th quarter of this year, but all the cycles are speeding up and some dangerously fast.

[SOL]

I've been holding up mentally really well so far........

This is the main issue. The current attack is a psyops type of attack. The idea is to break down a larger percentage of the masses. Some of the elite are being targeted. I discuss this more in my reply to Yodean. The idea is to reduce the ratio from 90/10 to 97/3 and eventually 99/1. Only those that have the wherewithal to mentally hold will make it through this war in the long run and that’s all that counts in the end; the long run, for you, can make out like a bandit in the short run with no gameplan and think you are the S**T and SHTF and you back on your butt

"but what if this time is actually different?"

In some ways, its always different; this time, however, they are employing a combo of a death by a thousand cuts (this is illusory, the idea is to make it look like death when in fact, the wounds are akin to mosquito bites; 90%

will heal fast and the remaining 10 a bit slower) and a war of attrition (this part is real)

I already have 5 lots deployed in TQQQ and don't have a full lot of cash left in my hellfire account... I could transfer some cash from savings "but what if this time is actually different?

"

While it's never a good idea to put too much money in high-risk investments, for those that bought TQQQ in March 2020; the low was 8.07 the high was 22.87. Take the midway point and say your average entry was 15.00. Even if you did not sell you would still be up but only an idiot would not have banked profits when they were showing gains in the 800 to 1000 per cent ranges. Bulls funds do well over the long run, even leveraged ones, bearish funds are the ones that kill.
I will post some charts of TQQQ in the next interim update (which will be posted today or tomorrow). Another thing you can do is sell covered calls on up days.

It's costing me $50+ in gas every time I mow the lawn now...

I don’t know how big your garden is but one option is to get a hand-powered lawnmower, will be good for your hand grip and overall health. You could chug a few JÄGERMEISTER while you do some good ole fashioned lawn mowing.

https://www.amazon.com/hand-push-lawn-m ... lawn+mower

Or I hear they have solar-powered lawnmowers, but I don't how well they work or how much they cost.

Daycare raised tuition by $200 a month compared to 2 years ago and are now hitting us up for a separate "summer activity fee" to pay for all the things that used to be included in the base tuition... I'm going to need that money in savings soon if this keeps up...

This is more complex to deal with. Over the years, I listened to wise individuals and old money, and the one common recurring theme was that one should always live below their means and if possible live 2 standards below. So I stopped impulse shopping, ate outside less, and treated everything from cars to clothes as an investment, in that I wanted to get top quality for the best possible price. Anyone can buy cheap crap, but the trick is buying top stuff on the cheap or for a massive discount.

[bpcw]

I've lost a bit in my spread betting account, was nice when you could just by the dips but hasn't worked well at all in this environment. Have jacked that in and refocused on the long game which is the recommended TI stocks which I'm confident will storm back to life. I've put extra money in and sold some positions that don't have so much upside potential and am now about 50% cash. I found the spread betting mentally tough of late and have had to learn the high way that I was taking on too much risk and discipline went out the window. Going back to buying good stocks in lots and holding through corrections is mentally far easier for me and that's what I'm going back to with perhaps some small positions in ETF's.

Sol, have a question, what do you think to raising cash by selling positions that have less upside potential, and when we're looking nearer a bottom when indices are oversold on a monthly basis (looking like this is the option PTB are taking) buying shares that have been decimated and have far greater upside potential?

[LoriPrecisely]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xc0zU5K3Mtw
I have listened to this astrologer occasionally for the past couple of years. I don't put a lot of clout in astrology, sometimes it is right and sometimes it is not. I think of it as entertainment with a possibility of forecasting. But, I thought this was interesting pertaining to the correlation to what Sol has been saying regarding a correction in the Fall. Enjoy!!

[jonnyfrank]

....everyone is as a quiet as a church mouse. Thoughts on today? Where treasuries might go? Is the Biden administration really out to destroy our country and usher in a national emergency so elections cannot be held in November? I'm no spring chicken, and I have been a disciplined investor my entire life, but the gut feeling I have right now is void of emotion but not feeling so good. Thoughts? Ideas? Suggestions? All welcome at this point.

[Yodean]

....everyone is as a quiet as a church mouse. Thoughts on today? Where treasuries might go? Is the Biden administration really out to destroy our country and usher in a national emergency so elections cannot be held in November? I'm no spring chicken, and I have been a disciplined investor my entire life, but the gut feeling I have right now is void of emotion but not feeling so good. Thoughts? Ideas? Suggestions? All welcome at this point.

My 2c:

Interim bottom's likely in for a lot of tech stocks, or very close. Maintain composure, deploy capital selectively, as long as you can still sleep at night. Try not to sell too much, unless you absolutely have to.

My personal MOABs and some FOABs have been triggered for a bunch of stocks/sectors.

Take lots of walks outside, and don't look at your portfolio too much.

[jonnyfrank]

Thank you, Y. I will stop kicking the cat too.