Intermin Market Update May 27, 2022

[SOL]

The following markets are experiencing convergences Bitcoin, Bonds and Possibly Transports. The dollar is diverging, These synergies usually help lift the markets in the short term.

GBTC weekly chart



initial targets 24 to 27, a weekly close above 27 could take it as high as 36.00

TLT weekly chart



Targets 127 to 127 with a possible overshoot to 132. A rally in bonds will help lift the markets higher.

USD weekly chart

It’s topping on the weekly charts; Pullback targets 99 to 100, possibly overshooting to the 97.50 range. Yen, Bonds, Bitcoin and the general markets are likely to experience strong relief rallies.

[Eric]

Blerg... TQQQ is up about 20% in 3 days and it's my biggest holding. Take some off the table and start swing trading it or just let it ride as this might be the start of the up swing with numerous up days between down days?

[AstuteShift]

Blerg... TQQQ is up about 20% in 3 days and it's my biggest holding. Take some off the table and start swing trading it or just let it ride as this might be the start of the up swing with numerous up days between down days?

I’ve added to my position in a disciplined manner. Trading frequently leads to mediocre gains and you can miss the bulk of the trade while adding on the stress

The market of disorder, bonds rally, stocks rally, dollar pressure off and bond yields especially the 10 year can slow down on the weeklies.

Big man market here

[Eric]

Yeah, I kept adding as it was going down, I think I have 5 lots from ~$84 to ~$28. I didn't sell any today, we'll see on Tuesday if it was the right call.

[AstuteShift]

Yeah, I kept adding as it was going down, I think I have 5 lots from ~$84 to ~$28. I didn't sell any today, we'll see on Tuesday if it was the right call.

If we get the three day rally then it’s a good confirmation of a bottom action.

When the news pundits scream bear market, it’s time to pop the champagne!

[SOL]

Blerg... TQQQ is up about 20% in 3 days and it's my biggest holding. Take some off the table and start swing trading it or just let it ride as this might be the start of the up swing with numerous up days between down days?

I am swinging all over the place. Here is what I do. Let's assume I am playing with 600 shares in TQQQ. I swing with 200 or 300, then I use the money to sell puts when it pulls back.

However what I have been doing and having more fun is selling covered calls on very strong up days likes Friday and then selling puts on down days, Then I buy them back.

I did this very aggressively with TTD. with 200 shares I was able to earn over 1200 in less than 30 days by selling covered calls on up days, and buying them back on down days. Selling puts on Down days buying them on up days.

[SOL]

The markets have rallied for two days in a row, one more up day (it has to be 3 days in a row) will mark an important juncture. If this achieved barring a black swan even the path of least resistance will switch from down to up. However evidence continues to mount that another albeit potentially stronger correction will hit this market. In order to have a long lasting upward swing, the majority of players have to be demoralized for years to come. At that point the big players will buy every dip while the crowd sits waiting for things to worsen and only when its almost too late will the crowd throw the towel in and join the party, setting the ground for the next strong to devastating correction. Humans have the potential to be conscious, but most assume all are conscious. To be conscious you have to be aware of mistakes made in the past that led to a wrong outcome and change tactics when you run into a similar situation. The stock market clearly illustrates humanities main talent is to actively seek an outcome that leads to a loss

[bpcw]

Sol, you say an even stronger correction but do you anticipate that we will go to a new ATH before this stronger correction occurs, if not then how close do you think we'll get and if we do how far above the current ATH do you think we'll get to before this occurs.

I know my question is somewhat crystal ball territory but I'm just asking for clarity, probability, any indications you may have. For example, if it is likely we'll get to only 14k on the Nasdaq before the stronger correction then it's a significant different strategy we need to employ than if we're likely to get to between 17k-18k.

Also I understand that it is all subject to sentiment data at any given point.

I have heard from another person who some of us also follow that this current bounce won't last very long as everyone and their Granny is expecting a strong bounce before the correction continues but the PTB could do 2 things with this. 1) as he expects and it not last much longer and we get lower lows perhaps down to Nasdaq 10.7k or 2) continue moving higher as large swathes sell into what they think is just a dead cat bounce but pushes the Nasdaq to a new ATH where FOMO starts to occur, people throw the towel in and everyone is buying expecting 30k and and we only get to 18k before a correction pursues to as much as 9k.

[SOL]

At this stage of the game it appears that hybrid warfare techniques are being applied to the markets. MP indicates a shift in strategy by the big players, give what the masses expect to a degree then derail them. So new highs are unlikely in the indices, the odds are a low high but some stocks can and will rally to new highs creating the illusion of higher highs. I am looking more into timelines then exact targets for indices. The next signal for the next correction could come as early as the end of July to late October. If the markets rally for three days in a row then for several weeks the focus should be on longs. Once get some signals we will employ defensive strategies which includes banking profits, selling covered calls with the intent of using some of the premium to purchase puts (essentially for free) and or purchasing some outright puts. It's too early to tell how high, but at this point we are allocating our efforts towards timelines. By time lines I mean focusing on specific months to lighten up.

[bpcw]

Thanks Sol for a quick response, that brings a lot more clarity without nailing your colours to the mast.

[Budge]

Carlisle Kane of Equedia Investment Research covers the collapse of Luna and TerraUSD. He starts with a history lesson on how Soros broke the pound sterling ERM peg on Black Wednesday 1992. He then posits we had a Black Wednesday 2.0. in the crypto market. Perhaps the same cast of characters, and the same method:

"The liquidity dry-up was so fierce and fast that only a coordinated attack could have caused such a blowup.

In fact, there’s talk of an undisclosed wallet that raked in over $815 million from this implosion, and probably many others, too. Of course, the mainstream media quickly laughed this off as a “conspiracy theory” – the new term for something so “obvious” yet too sinister to believe.

But are $815 million trades pulled off simply by chance?

“Obviously” not.

So who could have done something on such a grand scale? Soros?

The answer lies in the “obvious.”

Outside of billionaires playing for a trade, who benefits most from a crash in crypto?"

He then goes through the how and speculates on the who and why?

Interesting read.

https://www.equedia.com/why-did-crypto-crash/

[Yodean]

Outside of billionaires playing for a trade, who benefits most from a crash in crypto?"

He then goes through the how and speculates on the who and why?

Interesting read.

https://www.equedia.com/why-did-crypto-crash/

There are many explanations of what happened to TerraUSD - it was very vulnerable. Those that are interested may look this up, as the information is readily available.

My 2c:

-at this point in blockchain's short history, one needs to view BTC and alt. coins in separate categories, not just "cryptos"; they are very, very different; i.e. there's BTC, and there are "cryptos";

-keeping in mind the ultimate trend - the Game of Thrones - i.e. the War of Currencies ---> the true battle that underlies most of the other trends - at least to some extent - the battle of how long King USD has left as top dog:

-TerraUSD was doomed to be attacked and crushed, since it didn't hold USD as collateral; it tried to peg itself to the USD using algos and LUNA, but the point here is that stablecoins that don't hold USD as collateral, imo, are going to be targeted and destroyed, or at least smashed;

-Tether has some problems, and this is widely known, but it at least holds some USD as collateral;

-ultimately, I see USDC as the big winner in terms of stablecoins, at least for some time; it doesn't have the bad press that Tether has been getting for like, years, and Goldman Sachs appears to be behind USDC.

-I generally don't like to bet against Goldman Sachs too much.

[Investor87]

The markets have rallied for two days in a row, one more up day (it has to be 3 days in a row) will mark an important juncture.

What are you considering a "rally"? To my untrained eye I see three plus days of a rally on NDX. Does a rally start when it takes out the recent highs (12,030 on Monday)? Thanks for clarifying.

Screen Shot 2022-05-29 at 10.24.38 AM.png

[Eric]

Tuesday looks like closed close enough to even with where it opened. I agree Wed. thorough Fri look like a 3 day rally to me.

[bpcw]

Tuesday looks like closed close enough to even with where it opened. I agree Wed. thorough Fri look like a 3 day rally to me.

I suppose a rally could be defined as a strong up day rather than just up, so probably in the region of 3%. Rather than a 3 day rally it's 3 individual days in a row where stocks rally. However, Sol needs to clarify for himself.