MOMO

[Triplethought]

Did anyone else notice that MOMO gave us a 6% dividend on original purchase price or 12.8% per annum? The stock is down 50% from where we bought it but hey that dividend is nice.

[Yodean]

Did anyone else notice that MOMO gave us a 6% dividend on original purchase price or 12.8% per annum? The stock is down 50% from where we bought it but hey that dividend is nice.

What happened to your fear of the CCP?

[Triplethought]

Did anyone else notice that MOMO gave us a 6% dividend on original purchase price or 12.8% per annum? The stock is down 50% from where we bought it but hey that dividend is nice.

What happened to your fear of the CCP?

I try to buy despite my fears if SOL recommends something. It's the only way to learn. Despite the nice dividend I was right in not wanting to play in China. The MOMO play has been bad so far. TI MU had me buy first 2 lots at $13.20 and $9.68 and it's now at $5.30. We will see in the long run if SOL gets us out for a profit but it's hard to see how. My guess is we eventually sell at a loss. It's lost 50% of our money so far. If it can stay where it is and pay 12% dividends after 5 or 10 years it might make it up.

[SOL]

Did anyone else notice that MOMO gave us a 6% dividend on original purchase price or 12.8% per annum? The stock is down 50% from where we bought it but hey that dividend is nice.

What happened to your fear of the CCP?

I try to buy despite my fears if SOL recommends something. It's the only way to learn. Despite the nice dividend I was right in not wanting to play in China. The MOMO play has been bad so far. TI MU had me buy first 2 lots at $13.20 and $9.68 and it's now at $5.30. We will see in the long run if SOL gets us out for a profit but it's hard to see how. My guess is we eventually sell at a loss. It's lost 50% of our money so far. If it can stay where it is and pay 12% dividends after 5 or 10 years it might make it up.

its begging for a reason to test the 10 to 10.50 ranges

[Yodean]

Despite the nice dividend I was right in not wanting to play in China. The MOMO play has been bad so far.

This will get you in trouble. Trying to be "early right" all the time generally ends up in you being "later, really wrong." Lolol. Happened a lot to me early on in my investing forays.

The only prices that matter for any given stock is what price you bought, and what price you sold. That's it. We'll disregard the opportunity costs for the sake of simplicity.

On the other hand, often a consistently profitable investor may be "early wrong," but later, like, "really, really right."

I'll give you a Ninjedi YellowBelt in investing if you're able to hold a decent-sized position in an asset, withstand a 50%+ drawdown without running to yer Mamma and selling like a sissy, and a few years later, book > 66.6% gains. I'll require documentation.

[Triplethought]

Despite the nice dividend I was right in not wanting to play in China. The MOMO play has been bad so far.

This will get you in trouble. Trying to be "early right" all the time generally ends up in you being "later, really wrong." Lolol. Happened a lot to me early on in my investing forays.

The only prices that matter for any given stock is what price you bought, and what price you sold. That's it. We'll disregard the opportunity costs for the sake of simplicity.

On the other hand, often a consistently profitable investor may be "early wrong," but later, like, "really, really right."

I'll give you a Ninjedi YellowBelt in investing if you're able to hold a decent-sized position in an asset, withstand a 50%+ drawdown without running to yer Mamma and selling like a sissy, and a few years later, book > 66.6% gains. I'll require documentation.

That won't be hard to provide. I piss and moan a lot but I've been pretty good the last 2 years following the buffet rule. Don't - Sell - at - a loss - EVER. So much so that my more sophisticated investing friends tell me I'm guilty of the "sunk cost fallacy". The few exceptions have been when Sol says to or on an option where the time expires and I'm forced to take a loss. It's one of the reasons I'm gun shy about options now. It's one thing to be eventually right. It's quite another to be specifically right by a certain date.

[Yodean]

So much so that my more sophisticated investing friends tell me I'm guilty of the "sunk cost fallacy".

The "sunk cost fallacy" is a very real thing - I've been quite susceptible to this in the past, and it is something I am still working on.

There are many situations when it is better to take a >20% - 50% loss rather than HODLing, to avoid the 70% to 99% loss.

I.e. take the kick to the teeth like a man, fall down bleeding from your mouth, and then proceed to crawl away quietly to a dark corner, to live to trade another day.

In the past, I've had some stocks literally go to zero, while HODLing them.

I'll reward myself with my own Ninjedi BlackBelt in investing when I am able to differentiate situations when I should do the above, vs. running to Mamma Yodean bawling and selling like a sissy.

That's one of the features of what makes investing and trading fun - nothing works all the time, and every boneheaded move or theory has its day in the sun. I've tried a lot of the latter. Lolol.

Don't listen to Buffet too much.

[LoriPrecisely]

I was talking to a broker at Schwab who told me he always sells at 8% drop. He says if you hold longer, you are basically holding dead money. He would rather put his money to use somewhere else.

[chippermon]

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I was talking to a broker at Schwab who told me he always sells at 8% drop. He says if you hold longer, you are basically holding dead money. He would rather put his money to use somewhere else.

That's wrong in my opinion. Sometimes you have to let a trade breathe. Some of us have taken a sh*t kicking lately on some investments. I won't deny that. But in today's environment, he would be just trading one loss for another.

This is where TA has been my friend. I have not left the MP camp. I embrace it more than ever right now but the TA has served me well these last few months.

As Yodean and others have mentioned, you will never pick the top or the bottom. If you do it is pure luck. Taking positions in good companies, in burgeoning or growing industries will end up being profitable in the long run in this environment.

Your broker might do well in currencies or futures with that attitude but even at 8% he will have his ass served to him on a platter. When I surpass a risk threshold of 2.5% of my currency account I'll bail and probably buy or sell the same pair within a week. Different game.

As for MOMO, I remember looking at the chart at some point this week but I can't really remember what I saw except for the fact that I might consider getting some more.

My biggest problem right now is deciding where is the best place to put my ammo. Thinking AI. I'm not saying we are at the bottom but we might be. Pretty damn close.

[Yodean]

I was talking to a broker at Schwab who told me he always sells at 8% drop. He says if you hold longer, you are basically holding dead money. He would rather put his money to use somewhere else.

He's gonna be a broke broker, sooner rather than later. Unless he's able to collect a lot of fees from clients who follow his advice.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1529164171417354241

[nicolas]

I'll reward myself with my own Ninjedi BlackBelt in investing when I am able to differentiate situations when I should do the above, vs. running to Mamma Yodean bawling and selling like a sissy.

I'd say it comes down to having a plan before you hit the buy button.

Know Your Why

Are you putting on a trade because your indicators tell you there's a good probability it'll bounce off a support?

Then you must have a stop loss, before you even buy, in case it doesn't work. And have the discipline to respect it.

Or are you investing in a good company with a good pattern?

Then the question becomes "Has anything changed?" Maybe the outlook for the company is no longer that good, maybe the pattern has become weak and your money would be better used elsewhere, even if that means taking a loss. Or it hasn't and it's an opportunity to practice being patient.

If you're betting on a sector because you see something like a strong trend or supply/demand imbalances and think the whole thing is mispriced, the same question (whether the price is up or down by the way): "Is my thesis still valid?"

Example: Uranium. At some point, I was down more than 50%. Nothing had changed. If anything, it was even more attractive, so I added on down days. It kept going down for a while. Fast forward a year or two and I was up 3x from my cost basis before it pulled back. On PDN I think I was up about 10x when I took some off the table. Lately, I used some of these gains to SCSP.

Trading: have a stop loss and take small losses early
Investing: understand your thesis, reassess regularly

Now, like many things, it's easier to say it than to apply it consistently.

[harryg]

I'd say it comes down to having a plan before you hit the buy button.

Agreed, and to your other points.



You need to get your ego out of the way. Sometimes we make bad decisions, buy the wrong thing, or too much or at the wrong time and so on. The mistake is real, whether we choose to admit it or not.

A healthy attitude is "Where's my best opportunity", rather than "How can I force this position to make money".

[Yodean]

Example: Uranium. At some point, I was down more than 50%. Nothing had changed. If anything, it was even more attractive, so I added on down days. It kept going down for a while. Fast forward a year or two and I was up 3x from my cost basis before it pulled back. On PDN I think I was up about 10x when I took some off the table.

Yeh, it's best to be clear which trades are, well, trades, and which are HODL investments.

With the trades, one needs to be disciplined about knowing when to exit the trade - this price level or some other trigger (i.e. could be sentiment readings, what the indices are doing, etc.) is best established before you enter the trade.

With core HODL investments, one needs the discipline to re-assess your level of conviction of the trade - as you mentioned, has anything in your original thesis changed, regarding a particular stock? If it hasn't, one shouldn't sell, unless it's for practical reasons (e.g. you need it for living expenses).

Like you, I'm also very bullish on uranium, long-term - have had uranium assets for several years now. The main tail risk is if there's a nuclear accident of some sort, contrived or not. Otherwise, it's a pretty strong trend.

I like the "newish" structure of URNM, including 7.5% dividends - I've consolidated my uranium exposure to this single asset. Most up days, I'm SCC'ing a bit of my core holdings (at prices where the shares are unlikely to be called away), and on most down days, I'm SCP'ing it a bit. At current prices I don't mind accumulating more shares.

So the URNM core holding is generating DRIP dividends for me while generating income through SCC and SCP. I'm doing pretty much the same process with INTC at current price levels, and to a lesser extent, IBM and HIMX.