The Ruble, Food and Energy

[SOL]

The Rouble is the best performing currency in 2022, it has even outgunned the dollar which is no easy feat. Now the Russians will ease capital controls and then start to drop rates fast as high rates don't foster growth. Russia will push for the development of new industries to wean itself from Europe permanently. Russia can do this but it will be hard, on the other hand, Europe cannot wean itself of Russian gas if it wants its industry to survive. To import a significant amount of LNG will necessitate the building of a lot of new infrastructure, so that means years before this pipedream becomes a reality. Now even if it had the infrastructure in place, LNG is going to cost a lot more, which by default will kill Germany's advantage. Germany is the powerhouse of the EU. So they have only one option blink or break.


The trend is clear when you look at the picture with no emotions. Asia and Russia and a few European countries that align with it will prosper (Hungary stands out). Cheap energy is the only tool that Europe has and if that is removed, they have no competitive advantage. Most of Europe has lost the Russian Market forever and the US will not open its markets fully to European products. So Europe now finds itself between a rock and hard place.

As we are in the midst of a massive Currency war, Russia will slowly allow its currency to drift to 80 roubles to 1 dollar. When they have everything in place or a formal agreement with the Chinese banks, they will price all their commodities in Roubles and or Yuan. Because of this war, the Yuan now has a chance to become a major contender to the USD. It will soon Surpass the Euro as the second most desired currency

[scott]

As we are in the Midst of a massive Currency war, Russia will slowly allow its currency to drift to 80 roubles to 1 dollar.

My thoughts also about 80/1, that would serve Russia well. With the massive fluctuations in exchange rates, I tried to dollar cost average. Made out okay until banks (two I have accounts in) changed the rules; now holding onto dollars.

[Yodean]

Peter Schiff
@PeterSchiff
Not only is the U.S. dollar weakening against a broad basket of foreign currencies today, with the U.S. Dollar Index dropping by 1%, but it is crashing 6% against the #Russian rubble. The dollar is about to begin a historic bear market, with a soaring rubble leading the collapse!
7:11 AM · May 23, 2022·Twitter Web App

*****

Schiff is almost always wrong at important inflection points. King USD will still reign supreme for the next 6.66 to 13.13 years. All will continue to bend the knee and kiss the ground, and use ample amounts of vaseline, at times.

Historically, global reserve currencies are not surrendered without a fight to the death. The nascent SIRA (Sino-Indo-Russian Alliance) holds some promise, but too young and weak it is, like little girl who can't use big kettlebell. In the near future at least, it will be smashed.

This is the USD, metaphorically speaking:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1509535572372697090

[SOL]

Peter Schiff
@PeterSchiff
Not only is the U.S. dollar weakening against a broad basket of foreign currencies today, with the U.S. Dollar Index dropping by 1%, but it is crashing 6% against the #Russian rubble. The dollar is about to begin a historic bear market, with a soaring rubble leading the collapse!
7:11 AM · May 23, 2022·Twitter Web App

*****

Schiff is almost always wrong at important inflection points. King USD will still reign supreme for the next 6.66 to 13.13 years. All will continue to bend the knee and kiss the ground, and use ample amounts of vaseline, at times.

Historically, global reserve currencies are not surrendered without a fight to the death. The nascent SIRA (Sino-Indo-Russian Alliance) holds some promise, but too young and weak it is, like little girl who can't use big kettlebell. In the near future at least, it will be smashed.

This is the USD, metaphorically speaking:

If things are going to get so bad why he is not relocating. That's because he wants to sell everyone a shovel as, according to him his shovels are the best even though are made from cardboard. Jazz checked out his funds and said the fees were huge, and he is always pumping gold and other services from his firm shiffGold. It would be different if he said to buy gold or do this and here is a list of A-rated places, but he is providing all the services he recommends. You would never put a fox in charge of the Henhouse. Secondly, the fact that he is speaking about the Rouble means that the Rouble will probably weaken and start its journey to the 80 to 1 USD range. It's not a good option to have a currency strengthen so fast. Russia has demonstrated that it can stand up to the West both economically and militarily. Its next move, as I stated, will be to aggressively lower rates to stimulate the economy. I will have to pay Russia a detailed visit sometime in the near future. From an investment and trend perspective, it looks very compelling. Too bad the Mobsters in the west won't allow us to invest in the Russian stock market

As for the USD remaining King, it already lost the war, but it will take time for that to sink in, for those in North America, Most o Europe, OZ land, Kiwi land, Japan, South Korea and a few other smaller countries it will appear that it is still winning. We will have two zones now, the Eurasia Zone, where a basket of currencies will dominate, but their strength will be fostered by Russia. While China has the money, it will be Russia that controls those strings. Sadly everyone is underplaying Russia's hand. Without Russias Guns, this alliance against the West is Kaput.

The other Zone will be the one I spoke off and in that Zone USD will remain king at least for now

[Budge]

Peter Schiff
@PeterSchiff
Not only is the U.S. dollar weakening against a broad basket of foreign currencies today, with the U.S. Dollar Index dropping by 1%, but it is crashing 6% against the #Russian rubble. The dollar is about to begin a historic bear market, with a soaring rubble leading the collapse!
7:11 AM · May 23, 2022·Twitter Web App

*****

Schiff is almost always wrong at important inflection points. King USD will still reign supreme for the next 6.66 to 13.13 years. All will continue to bend the knee and kiss the ground, and use ample amounts of vaseline, at times.

Historically, global reserve currencies are not surrendered without a fight to the death. The nascent SIRA (Sino-Indo-Russian Alliance) holds some promise, but too young and weak it is, like little girl who can't use big kettlebell. In the near future at least, it will be smashed.

This is the USD, metaphorically speaking:

If things are going to get so bad why he is not relocating. That's because he wants to sell everyone a shovel as, according to him his shovels are the best even though are made from cardboard. Jazz checked out his funds and said the fees were huge, and he is always pumping gold and other services from his firm shiffGold. It would be different if he said to buy gold or do this and here is a list of A-rated places, but he is providing all the services he recommends. You would never put a fox in charge of the Henhouse. Secondly, the fact that he is speaking about the Rouble means that the Rouble will probably weaken and start its journey to the 80 to 1 USD range. It's not a good option to have a currency strengthen so fast. Russia has demonstrated that it can stand up to the West both economically and militarily. Its next move, as I stated, will be to aggressively lower rates to stimulate the economy. I will have to pay Russia a detailed visit sometime in the near future. From an investment and trend perspective, it looks very compelling. Too bad the Mobsters in the west won't allow us to invest in the Russian stock market

As for the USD remaining King, it already lost the war, but it will take time for that to sink in, for those in North America, Most o Europe, OZ land, Kiwi land, Japan, South Korea and a few other smaller countries it will appear that it is still winning. We will have two zones now, the Eurasia Zone, where a basket of currencies will dominate, but their strength will be fostered by Russia. While China has the money, it will be Russia that controls those strings. Sadly everyone is underplaying Russia's hand. Without Russias Guns, this alliance against the West is Kaput.

The other Zone will be the one I spoke off and in that Zone USD will remain king at least for now

The internationalisation of that peculiar DOJ program of Asset Forfeiture used against the Rooskies put many on notice.

[SOL]

Russia hiked its interest to 20% from 8.5% after the sanctions the west imposed it. Then as the Rouble gained strength it dropped it to 14 and now its at 11 and the rouble is still trading at 60 as of this post. So it is possible that rates will drop below 8.5 by the end of this year. As the rates drop, businesses will borrow more to invest and the Russia will be able to continue dropping rates to probably below 6 within the next 12 to 18 months. Notice while the west is forced to raise rates, Russia is already lowering them.

Russia's central bank slashed interest rates sharply Thursday in an effort to reduce the value of the ruble, which has soared against the dollar in recent weeks.

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut the benchmark rate to 11%, from 14% previously, in an emergency meeting called two weeks early. It was the third rate cut in just over a month.

https://news.yahoo.com/russias-central- ... 09849.html

If Europe does not do something fast to address the energy situation a lot of people are going to be forced to choose between food and heat. The USD continues to gain strength because Europe is being fed to the sharks. However, as the dollar gains strength many developing nations will not be able to service their debt. At some point they will have to choose of forming a new alliance with Russia and China and defaulting on their debt or starving and paying their debt. When push comes to shove, governments don't go against hungry people for the result is unpleasant.

A lot of forces are converging to indicate that some shock type event could hit the financial markets due to all these silly policies, and such events will only make Russia stronger.

Europeans need to plan well now, for winter is going to be open pandora's box. More on this later. This is an interesting video if you can follow simple math
https://youtu.be/6tngBU7FiSU

[Yodean]

Notice while the west is forced to raise rates, Russia is already lowering them.

The US raising interest rates is putting a ton of pressure on the smaller countries with significant USD-denominated debt. These countries are being forced to choose between siding with the Devil they know - the USSA - or the Devil they don't - the nascent SIRA.

It's a sign of strength, from a certain perspective - the U.S. is still winning the War of Currency, for the time being. It'll lose a few battles here and there, like in any real war.

The Shadow Panda will backstab the Russian Bear at some point.

[SOL]

Notice while the west is forced to raise rates, Russia is already lowering them.

The US raising interest rates is putting a ton of pressure on the smaller countries with significant USD-denominated debt. These countries are being forced to choose between siding with the Devil they know - the USSA - or the Devil they don't - the nascent SIRA.

It's a sign of strength, from a certain perspective - the U.S. is still winning the War of Currency, for the time being. It'll lose a few battles here and there, like in any real war.

The Shadow Panda will backstab the Russian Bear at some point.

Or the shadow Panda could become Shashlik, which the Russians are famous for. A good saying for the Sino-Russian alliance, is they don't stand shoulder to shoulder, they stand back to back. Russia is self-sufficient, China is not and China cannot handle the US but Russia has the capabilities. It's not the money that counts now, it's military might.

[SOL]

Europe Is Now in Its Worst Corporate-Bond Selloff in Decades

By almost any metric, this is Europe’s worst corporate-bond selloff in decades, surpassing even the 2008 financial crisis.

Whether you look at returns, the speed at which yields have risen, or the length of the selloff, investors face a historic pummeling. An index of investment-grade European debt has fallen seven months in a row, its longest losing streak since its inception in 1998. The 12.9% loss over the past 12 months is also the worst in its history.

The plunge, a dramatic turnabout from three decades of largely favorable markets, is the result of central banks around the world tightening monetary policy in an attempt to tame spiraling inflation.

“We’ve been down most months this year,” said Kyle Kloc, a senior portfolio manager at Fisch Asset Management. “You very rarely get these types of repeated negative returns.”

The selloff is more intense than two comparable periods, he said: the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, which lasted only weeks before central banks calmed markets, and the great financial crisis, which was a series of “sharp, quick drops.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-n ... 38157.html

And all this money will for now race towards the US, especially with the Feds set to hike one more time. So higher rates, safer from an illusory point of view and a stock market that will eventually trend higher. European leaders have not only shot themselves in the foot but in the backside, now they can't move or bend over to say sorry. Boris the untidy chap has taken a drubbing, Marcon is having issues and on and one it continues. It appears Civil war will strike Europe first.

[Yodean]

And all this money will for now race towards the US ...

Yep, USD Black Hole ... flight to safety of capital from Western Europe to USD-denominated assets. The USD will suck up global capital, something fierce.

From the War of Currencies perpective, Western Europe's troubles, both domestic and vs. its eastern enemies, will only serve to strengthen the USD.

Somewhat similar to WW1, WW2 ... smart money fled Europe and went to America.

The Bald Eagle is smart in the sense that you never want a war on your own soil. Make others fight your battles ... that is the way of the Dark WISC.

All of Western Europe will be sacrificed to weaken the Angry Bear.

The Bald Eagle and the Shadow Panda will emerge as the strongest, and benefit the most.

[SOL]

And all this money will for now race towards the US ...

Yep, USD Black Hole ... flight to safety of capital from Western Europe to USD-denominated assets. The USD will suck up global capital, something fierce.

From the War of Currencies perpective, Western Europe's troubles, both domestic and vs. its eastern enemies, will only serve to strengthen the USD.

Somewhat similar to WW1, WW2 ... smart money fled Europe and went to America.

The Bald Eagle is smart in the sense that you never want a war on your own soil. Make others fight your battles ... that is the way of the Dark WISC.

All of Western Europe will be sacrificed to weaken the Angry Bear.

The Bald Eagle and the Shadow Panda will emerge as the strongest, and benefit the most.

Remember no one has conquered Russia for over 1000 years. They are master chess players and they planned for this war, they don't have one plan, they have dozens and then they have the ability to change them on the fly. So The bald eagle is going to get shot eventually and sooner than most expect, but in the interim as Europe bit the hand that fed them they are going to have to lick the boot that kicks them.

As for the Chinese, if they make a deal they usually stick by it. Like the Russians, you have to understand a few things about the Chinese, one of the biggest mistakes America makes is to disparage them in the Public which is A no- no in Asian Culture, especially Chinese Culture.

A long time ago, I went for dinner to a Chinese resto that I would often frequent, and the idea is that when the Tea is over in the pot, you turn the lid over and they come and fill the teapot again. So I did that and nothing happened for over 15 minutes, the normal wait time was 3 minutes and busy times 5, so this was 300% over the limit To make matters worse my General Tso's chicken and sauteed Broccolli was taking forever also. So I called the waiter and asked him what was going on he said five minutes more, five minutes nothing happened. I called the next one he said the same thing, at that point I said shove your 5 minutes up your A and call the manager. The manager came and apologized and said he would have it in five minutes, but still it did not come at that point I called him again and started to blast him loudly in front of everyone. Well my food arrived fast but it looked like hell, I left without eating. The next time I came back at a very quiet hour, nobody would serve me. I asked what was going on, they said we are closed but I said it says open outside. The guy said it's open but only for sitting down but not for eating. I got the point. I went to see the manager and said so you are punishing me for the last time even though I was not wrong. He responded wrong or right has nothing to do with it, it's all about respect. I could see he was offended and Ego means nothing to me, so I said what do I have to do to fix the situation. He kept quiet, so I took the initiative

I am sorry if I offended you last time, but try to imagine it from my side, I was starving and normally I don't have to wait for more than 15 minutes but today I had to wait for almost 1 hour, and to make matters worse nobody even served me tea on time. He looked at me and said I see you understand the Chinese way a little, I said yes I have Chinese friends. He said if you want to yell at me, it's okay but do it in private do not yell at us in Public for then we are forced to save face. Then he said something quite interesting. If both of us agree to a deal but we both lose something while getting something in the process it's called negotiating. If we both agree but one is smiling it's called subjugation. With that, he shook my hands and said your general Tso is ready

The Chinese generally won't stab you in the back if you make a deal with them and treat them with respect. They are businessmen. In that sense, there might be some rivalry in the future between the two, but by far and large China stands to make 10X more by being Russia's friend than its enemy. On the other hand, they both stand to make 100X by uniting against the Bald Eagle

[symbios]

My 2 cents, Indians are the true masters of negotiating. I worked with many of them and it’s in their culture and blood to negotiate everything! They enjoy it the process even when the outcome is the same.

As for Chinese, I wouldn’t generalize them. Chinese have a long history and they have very rich culture. However, one must understand that during the cultural revolution, the communist managed to force many people to flee the country. With those people gone, a lot of knowledge and teachings were lost to the country. Religion was almost non-existent during that time and generally the people had faith only in communism by choice or by force..

Now, those who flee, many of them are educated in the old ways, the old culture, they bring them overseas to places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia etc. They are a very different group compared to those in China now. I’m not saying all the chinese in China are the same but they are a generation brought up under communist rule who has very different values compared to overseas chinese. I work with many Chinese from China as well, and they generally view the overseas Chinese as generally naive and stupid to follow the laws of our own country and have values such as integrity and honesty.

[Cinnamon]

https://youtu.be/jXeBMviF5lw

[Yodean]

He said if you want to yell at me, it's okay but do it in private do not yell at us in Public for then we are forced to save face.

Generally, it's not a particularly good idea to yell at anyone in a restaurant who is serving you, regardless of circumstances.

Your General Tso's chicken, besides being full of PUFAs and likely being really composed of city pigeon parts, probably contained both Chef and server saliva in significant quantities, from spitting.

Indeed, often the Chinese quietly get even, as opposed to getting mad. Especially the females.

But in all seriousness, to echo Symbios' point, "the Chinese" is a fairly large segment of the global population, and it would be somewhat disingenuous, to say the least, to paint all of them with the same brush.

[Yodean]

My 2 cents, Indians are the true masters of negotiating. I worked with many of them and it’s in their culture and blood to negotiate everything! They enjoy it the process even when the outcome is the same.

Yeh, I would have to agree. Tend to be a bit cheap at times, lol ... treat bargaining as a game they never seem to get tired of playing.