Putting things into perspective. It's a question of when and not if......

[Centeron631]

"Here is another titbit. Historically after bearish readings surge past 51, the average gain for the SPX has been roughly 7%. Still, this year the correction has been brutal and bearish readings surged to 60, so when this bull regains its feet, we suspect it will produce another stellar run."

Sol is this reference to 7% : from the values of SPX before this recent reversal commenced, or from current day values? thks

[LoriPrecisely]

If you are short, you are running against the clock.

What does this mean?

[bpcw]

If you are short, you are running against the clock.

What does this mean?

Because it's only a matter of time before the markets turn the corner and then they tend to explode from such fear levels and the length of this correction. Also if you're short the most the market can go down is 100% but in reality it can't happen but the potential upward move is massive, look at a multi decade chart of the markets, the Dow from the low of the mighty crash of 2009 went up nearly 6 fold !

[LoriPrecisely]

Thank you!

[Yodean]

I don't understand the relevance of whether or not this current inflation is man-made.
There seems to be an implication that is it somehow not real.

As you know, inflation, the term, is used in many different ways, to mean different things. Causes a lot of confusion.

In terms of meaning "loss of purchasing power," inflation has been present for many decades. A stealth tax, if you will, used by governments to inflate away their debt. Works pretty well for them, not so good for us.

Monetary inflation is different from MANflation in the sense that for true monetary inflation to express itself, the velocity of money needs to rise significantly, over the long-term.

Now, of course, we don't have access to the M3 data (i.e. "Big Money"), so we don't really have the whole picture as far as the velocity of money goes, but based on what we do know (M2 and below), it's still low.

But there's no doubt CPI is really high in the West - so, how to reconcile this? Well, supply-chain disruptions and events that lead to them (i.e. lockdowns, wars, government policies like blocking Nordstream 2, etc.), for one.

The difference is not just academic because monetary inflation is easier to control with Fed hikes, for example. However, MANflation is not as responsive, generally, to monetary policy.

On the other hand, MANflation is easily and quickly - relatively-speaking - dealt with if the factors causing supply-chain disruptions/shocks are removed. E.g. sanctions against Russia, lockdowns in China, opening Nordstream 2, removing restrictions against fracking and oil production in North America, etc.

[deepthinker]

Another way to looking at it or expanding or simplifying what Yodean and Sol have stated :

1) Inflation has always been an issue since we stopped back our currency with Gold
2) If not for the supply chain issues, which seem to be artificially created due to incredibly asinine rules. Instead of making it easier for ships to dock and for trucks to pick up loads, the whole process is 2X more complex. There was an incredibly well researched article that indicated how ports in California and other liberal states were making things much worse
3) The energy and food wars via sanctions that don't make sense have made things even worse. Minus these sanctions, energy and food prices would be normal. Low energy costs are a must for business especially in Europe.

A rising VM indicates that the economy is healthy. A declining VM indicates we are in trouble. In our case the current VM chart indicates that patient is barely alive.

[harryg]

Yes, for me inflation is when my fiat currency buys less real goods, ie rising prices or depreciating currency if you like.

If I understand this (VM) argument, it's that the current high inflation is more likely to be transitory since the reasons for it are 'one-offs'. There is an implicit assumption that these issues will be resolved in a good way.

The way I see it, a low VM would indicate that people are saving instead of spending.

[SOL]

Yes, for me inflation is when my fiat currency buys less real goods, ie rising prices or depreciating currency if you like.

If I understand this (VM) argument, it's that the current high inflation is more likely to be transitory since the reasons for it are 'one-offs'. There is an implicit assumption that these issues will be resolved in a good way.

The way I see it, a low VM would indicate that people are saving instead of spending.

But but dear chap, VM has been declining for years on end. The bigger story is that banks are not lending to the masses but to only certain big boys. This is why the biggest killing from the housing crash 2008-2009 was made by the big boys as the small boys could not get loans

[Yodean]

But but dear chap, VM has been declining for years on end. The bigger story is that banks are not lending to the masses but to only certain big boys. This is why the biggest killing from the housing crash 2008-2009 was made by the big boys as the small boys could not get loans

We also need the M3 data to make the equation of cross-exchange more accurate. Follow what the Big Boys are doing with their money.

[SOL]

But but dear chap, VM has been declining for years on end. The bigger story is that banks are not lending to the masses but to only certain big boys. This is why the biggest killing from the housing crash 2008-2009 was made by the big boys as the small boys could not get loans

We also need the M3 data to make the equation of cross-exchange more accurate. Follow what the Big Boys are doing with their money.

shadowstats provides their version of m3. I will need to find the link or you can search their site for it. but it seems like they are just guessing as the data does not show any unusual patterns

[SOL]

Inflation may be a lot lower than anyone thinks — even the Fed


U.S. inflation in April plunged to an annualized rate of 4.1% — less than half of where it stood in the prior month.

This will no doubt come as a surprise for those of you who focus only on the financial headlines. They informed us that the Consumer Price Index dipped slightly in April, to 8.3% from 8.5%. This modest decline was less than what Wall Street had been expecting, and on the day it was reported the S&P 500 SPX, -1.93% fell almost 2% while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -3.44% lost more than 3%.

But the headline CPI number focuses on its 12-month rate of change. If you focus on the monthly rate of change, as shown in the chart below, then it becomes readily apparent how much inflation dropped from March to Ap
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/infla ... eid=yhoof2
If the sanctions against Russia are dropped or scaled back not to include oil and gas, then watch the inflation numbers magically stabilise.

Did anyone notice how China took on a very aggressive covid stance right around the time Russia Invaded Ukraine? We feel they are sending the West a message, especially EUROPESTAN, that while we might not have big guns like Russia and America, we are the manufacturers of the world and we can slice you like chop suey if you try to push us to far

[Yodean]

Did anyone notice how China took on a very aggressive covid stance right around the time Russia Invaded Ukraine? We feel they are sending the West a message, especially EUROPESTAN, that while we might not have big guns like Russia and America, we are the manufacturers of the world and we can slice you like chop suey if you try to push us to far

Yeh, one of the better theories explaining the "zero +ve cv19 PCR tests in asymptomatic individuals lockdown policy" is that it's a way for the CCP to apply pressure on the West through supply chain disruption.

It's a deep, dangerous Art of War tactic that is not commonly discussed or employed - you do something that hurts both you and your opponent simultaneously, but it damages your opponent more.

Like drinking poisoned tea with your enemy, knowing that while the poison will make you sick, it will kill your foe.

Not recommended for the faint of heart.

[Budge]

Like drinking poisoned tea with your enemy, knowing that while the poison will make you sick, it will kill your foe.

Not recommended for the faint of heart.

"Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line." Vizzini RIP

Mind you, the first part of the quote seems more appropriate in current circumstances:

"You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is ‘Never get involved in a land war in Asia,’"

[Investor87]

I'm still learning but today seemed like a bit of a bull/bottoming type of signal. A higher low.
NDX 52wk low on Friday was 11,492
Low today was 11,576
Am I correct?

[Eric]

"You fell victim to one of the classic blunders. The most famous is ‘Never get involved in a land war in Asia,’"