Here are the latest sentiment readings we allocated more time to processing this data so it could be presented earlier
Bulls 23
Neutral 26
Bears 51
What stands out is that there is no way in Hell that bullish reading could be at 23, and this is after we applied our adjustment factor. Hence sentiment data is definitely being manipulated. However, its not outright manipulation, where an investigation would reveal the numbers are being fudged
For one, the Dow is trading a lot lower than it was when the April 17th update was sent out. At that time bullish readings stood at 13 and today they stand at 23. It's simply not possible
Either the masses are being conned into believing a false narrative, or the data processors are being overly accommodative in what they classify as bullish, bearish or neutral readings
This could be the reason why so many seasoned traders are dumping stocks as this corrupted sentiment data makes them believe that there is a lot more downside. If we had not created the Anxiety index and or the Idiots Index we might have missed this deception.
If they can manipulate bearish and bullish data to create the impression that the markets need to let out more steam, then they will do it in a more aggressive manner when it comes to extending this bull market. Hence, we suspect that bearish readings might trade above their historical average for an extended period when the markets reverse course and surge upwards
Interim Update May 19, 2022
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SOL
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Interim Update May 19, 2022
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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bpcw
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
That's what I was thinking Sol, I think a lot more people are using these sentiment figures and so they have needed to manipulate them to create the allusion that the average person is still buying the dip and so it sends out a false contrarian signal to the more experienced guys and catches more selling for the shadow players to buy into.
The person without the Spirit does not accept the things that come from the Spirit of God but considers them foolishness, and cannot understand them because they are discerned only through the Spirit.
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Yodean
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
Indeed, the PTBs appear to have been manipulating readily available sentiment measures for some time now.SOL wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 11:52 am If they can manipulate bearish and bullish data to create the impression that the markets need to let out more steam, then they will do it in a more aggressive manner when it comes to extending this bull market. Hence, we suspect that bearish readings might trade above their historical average for an extended period when the markets reverse course and surge upwards
As you know, the recent correction caught many by surprise, likely partially because bullish readings did not really go up that much. Same thing happened in Feb./March '20.
You mentioned keeping a trading journal for a variety of reasons, including monitoring your feelings and actions during market extremes (a type of self-observation). Very useful, and may help one in developing one's own sentiment measures, by using oneself as a sentiment indicator.
For example, when most of my holdings are significantly in the red (Ocean of Blood) - as they are now - we are almost always at or near a bottom of some sort in the equity markets. When my portfolio is a Field of Green - most recently in November '21 - we are usually near a top of some sorts.
My l'il EBI also functions as a half-decent sentiment indicator for "risk on" sentiment - it works for growth stocks as well as BTC. It's triggered something between a MOAB and a FOAB intermittently for a few weeks now. Another 10% to 15% drawdown in the indices will trigger a FOAB. Unclear if that will happen now, or in the future.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Yodean
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
BossJedi sez:
*****
Or one could say that the Fed is independent. It's just it has made 90% of citizens and businesses its dependents. In other words, they all depend on it, which means most of them would crumble without it.
As for the Russian Ukrainian war, I think I put a map last week or early this week stating why Russia had already won. They have 90% of what they wanted, and now if they are forced to choose between Kharkhov and Odessa they will most likely opt for Odessa to make the new Ukraine a landlocked nation
At some point, those in the West are going to suddenly decide it's time to do business with Russia. The only way Germany can save itself now would be to suddenly open Nordstream 2. In one shot, they will have all the gas they and most of Europe need. Also, expect the Fed to suddenly reverse its position and start lowering rates. This correction has been so rough that the ensuing rally phase could last well past 48 months.
The strategy being used is to create the impression that one has lost on both sides. When the markets are going down, they want people to think they should have sold at the top, though as is the case with a bottom, one only knows it's in place in hindsight. So what happens is people start thinking in terms of how to lose less and when that happens, the big players have won. For player A an acceptable loss may be 30% but there are lot of people that think like him, so he will end up selling at a bigger loss. Then you move to the next group and so on, until you have a selling climax. Everyone that sold lost; the only separating factor is the depth of the loss.
The reverse narrative is that when the markets start to soar, the media pumps stories stating that this could be a bear trap, and there is more downside, etc, etc and this can continue even after the market has tacked on 20 to 30% from its lows. Those that sold are now suffering from some form of shock
1) Damn it, I sold at the wrong time, so let me wait for the markets to pull back so I can reduce my losses again. Notice the narrative is focused on loss reduction
2) This rally is a bull trap there's no way the outlook changed so fast. Little do they know is that an outlook is based on perceptions and most of the ingredients for this B.S narrative were manmade
3) Okay the markets recovered but they rallied too fast so they will drop. The markets do pull back but usually after they have rallied another 20%. Such individuals can sit out of the market for years
When one bails out of the market, psychologically, one is not ready to jump in unless one already planned the moves in advance (very few do this) and has also planned when to jump back in advance. Again this is a very rare trait. We keep in touch with some very big traders. As stated recently, three of them already threw the towel in partially, two fulls and one sold about 60% of his holdings the last time we spoke. From what I could see the underlying driver was uncertainty, which in my opinion is worse than fear. With fear you know what you are worrying about, at least it has a direction or a focus. When it comes to uncertainty, there is no direction, no focus, you just worry for the sake of worrying. It's noteworthy that all three of these guys did not flinch at all during the covid crash.
*****
Or one could say that the Fed is independent. It's just it has made 90% of citizens and businesses its dependents. In other words, they all depend on it, which means most of them would crumble without it.
As for the Russian Ukrainian war, I think I put a map last week or early this week stating why Russia had already won. They have 90% of what they wanted, and now if they are forced to choose between Kharkhov and Odessa they will most likely opt for Odessa to make the new Ukraine a landlocked nation
At some point, those in the West are going to suddenly decide it's time to do business with Russia. The only way Germany can save itself now would be to suddenly open Nordstream 2. In one shot, they will have all the gas they and most of Europe need. Also, expect the Fed to suddenly reverse its position and start lowering rates. This correction has been so rough that the ensuing rally phase could last well past 48 months.
The strategy being used is to create the impression that one has lost on both sides. When the markets are going down, they want people to think they should have sold at the top, though as is the case with a bottom, one only knows it's in place in hindsight. So what happens is people start thinking in terms of how to lose less and when that happens, the big players have won. For player A an acceptable loss may be 30% but there are lot of people that think like him, so he will end up selling at a bigger loss. Then you move to the next group and so on, until you have a selling climax. Everyone that sold lost; the only separating factor is the depth of the loss.
The reverse narrative is that when the markets start to soar, the media pumps stories stating that this could be a bear trap, and there is more downside, etc, etc and this can continue even after the market has tacked on 20 to 30% from its lows. Those that sold are now suffering from some form of shock
1) Damn it, I sold at the wrong time, so let me wait for the markets to pull back so I can reduce my losses again. Notice the narrative is focused on loss reduction
2) This rally is a bull trap there's no way the outlook changed so fast. Little do they know is that an outlook is based on perceptions and most of the ingredients for this B.S narrative were manmade
3) Okay the markets recovered but they rallied too fast so they will drop. The markets do pull back but usually after they have rallied another 20%. Such individuals can sit out of the market for years
When one bails out of the market, psychologically, one is not ready to jump in unless one already planned the moves in advance (very few do this) and has also planned when to jump back in advance. Again this is a very rare trait. We keep in touch with some very big traders. As stated recently, three of them already threw the towel in partially, two fulls and one sold about 60% of his holdings the last time we spoke. From what I could see the underlying driver was uncertainty, which in my opinion is worse than fear. With fear you know what you are worrying about, at least it has a direction or a focus. When it comes to uncertainty, there is no direction, no focus, you just worry for the sake of worrying. It's noteworthy that all three of these guys did not flinch at all during the covid crash.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Budge
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
Powell maintains markets are orderly. Article disagrees:
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/05/ ... heyre-not/
"Yesterday, the giant retailer, Target, lost 25 percent of its market value. In one trading session. That amounts to a $24.9 billion loss to shareholders. That’s not an orderly market. It’s also not normal."
But then the article adds some crucial info:
"On May 9, Jefferies tech analyst Brent Thill appeared on CNBC and said this about his tech trading desk:
“This has taken on more negativity than we could have imagined. We have no buyers on our desk. There’s max pain and it’s darker than I’ve seen in the last decade in covering many of these names.”
A little later in the interview, Thill added this: “I can tell you with high conviction that the biggest names on Wall Street right now are sitting out this and waiting…there’s a massive buyers’ strike right now.”
Memo to Fed Chair Powell: If you have only sellers and no buyers, you do not have an orderly market."
Hmmm
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/05/ ... heyre-not/
"Yesterday, the giant retailer, Target, lost 25 percent of its market value. In one trading session. That amounts to a $24.9 billion loss to shareholders. That’s not an orderly market. It’s also not normal."
But then the article adds some crucial info:
"On May 9, Jefferies tech analyst Brent Thill appeared on CNBC and said this about his tech trading desk:
“This has taken on more negativity than we could have imagined. We have no buyers on our desk. There’s max pain and it’s darker than I’ve seen in the last decade in covering many of these names.”
A little later in the interview, Thill added this: “I can tell you with high conviction that the biggest names on Wall Street right now are sitting out this and waiting…there’s a massive buyers’ strike right now.”
Memo to Fed Chair Powell: If you have only sellers and no buyers, you do not have an orderly market."
Hmmm
..whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government..
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SOL
- Power VS Force
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
The gloves are off, and it's no longer a covert operation. The Fed is fully aware of what is going on. They know all the facts in advance because they create the narrative. So the only possible explanation is this is Russian Roulette on Steroids but unlike the version played on the MOEX where they froze everyone out so that they can load up slowly and walk away with massive gains whenever they determine the time is right, because as soon as the freeze is removed those stocks are going to fly. In this case, what they are doing is purposely making it appear that things are bleak. The big boys are acting surprised when in fact, they are not. They are sitting on their hands because they were also given the inside scoop.Budge wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:36 pm Powell maintains markets are orderly. Article disagrees:
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/05/ ... heyre-not/
"Yesterday, the giant retailer, Target, lost 25 percent of its market value. In one trading session. That amounts to a $24.9 billion loss to shareholders. That’s not an orderly market. It’s also not normal."
But then the article adds some crucial info:
"On May 9, Jefferies tech analyst Brent Thill appeared on CNBC and said this about his tech trading desk:
“This has taken on more negativity than we could have imagined. We have no buyers on our desk. There’s max pain and it’s darker than I’ve seen in the last decade in covering many of these names.”
A little later in the interview, Thill added this: “I can tell you with high conviction that the biggest names on Wall Street right now are sitting out this and waiting…there’s a massive buyers’ strike right now.”
Memo to Fed Chair Powell: If you have only sellers and no buyers, you do not have an orderly market."
Hmmm
They view us small players with such contempt, but if they could only walk in our shoes for one day and understand the hard work, sweat and, in some cases, blood many of us have to put into figuring out their games, they would think probably a little more highly of us. All they have to do is wait for the signal and make easy money on their end.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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SOL
- Power VS Force
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
We have some nice positive divergences between the indices. The Russell 2000 is in the green as I type this, and the Nasdaq was in the green, but it's definitely not reacting in the same way the Dow is.
The highest bearish reading during the COVID crash was around 53, but in the May 1st update, it hit 60.
Historically when the crowd is this nervous, the median gain in the SPX over six months has been around 7%, and over the next 12 months, it has averaged 17.9. Let's see how this plays out.
The highest bearish reading during the COVID crash was around 53, but in the May 1st update, it hit 60.
Historically when the crowd is this nervous, the median gain in the SPX over six months has been around 7%, and over the next 12 months, it has averaged 17.9. Let's see how this plays out.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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bpcw
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
For a bit of added data, I looked into a number of 'experts' on Marketoracle a few years back and made comments on them and then looked at what they have said recently, here's what a put down and a link to recent articles from them:
Graham Summers – useless, been calling for a market crash for years.
https://gainspainscapital.com/
Harry Dent – been bearish on stocks for years, bearish on everything I can see, sees gold going to $700 - $400, is a deflationist.
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/03/11 ... w-by-june/
Graham Summers – useless, been calling for a market crash for years.
https://gainspainscapital.com/
Harry Dent – been bearish on stocks for years, bearish on everything I can see, sees gold going to $700 - $400, is a deflationist.
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/03/11 ... w-by-june/
The person without the Spirit does not accept the things that come from the Spirit of God but considers them foolishness, and cannot understand them because they are discerned only through the Spirit.
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Yodean
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
Yeh, when Dent starts getting invited to give interviews like the one below, _usually_ the bottom is near, or past:bpcw wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:27 pm Harry Dent – been bearish on stocks for years, bearish on everything I can see, sees gold going to $700 - $400, is a deflationist.
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/03/11 ... w-by-june/
https://youtu.be/teHU7Z1YjhU
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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Investor87
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
“ Either the masses are being conned into believing a false narrative, or the data processors are being overly accommodative in what they classify as bullish, bearish or neutral readings”
It seems to me it wouldn’t be too hard for the top shadow players to hire a couple hundred hackers to fill out 50 weekly surveys each under unique accounts. They could get sentiment readings to go any direction they want. They probably pay them pretty well. lol
It seems to me it wouldn’t be too hard for the top shadow players to hire a couple hundred hackers to fill out 50 weekly surveys each under unique accounts. They could get sentiment readings to go any direction they want. They probably pay them pretty well. lol
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harryg
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
It's certainly more than possible.Investor87 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:21 am “ Either the masses are being conned into believing a false narrative, or the data processors are being overly accommodative in what they classify as bullish, bearish or neutral readings”
It seems to me it wouldn’t be too hard for the top shadow players to hire a couple hundred hackers to fill out 50 weekly surveys each under unique accounts. They could get sentiment readings to go any direction they want. They probably pay them pretty well. lol
Saw a French TV documentary exposing huge teams of people being employed in warehouses in Madagascar to write false reviews for TripAdvisor. Well, not 'for' TripAdvisor, but for hotels and businesses that wanted lots of good ratings on TripAdvisor.
Much the same concept.
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https://www.harryginsights.com
https://www.harryginsights.com
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SOL
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
The same scam is used for amazon ratings and a host of other services. Most of these boiler rooms operate from Africa or Asia where wages are low. I even ran into a guy that hired a firm to do his SERP. In essence, they faked the search results using bots and humans to perform hundreds to thousands of searches per day and they only clicked the KW associated with his site. Using this strategy they can rank you in the top 10 search results. I am sure they have refined the process now as this was about 3 years ago. So its bound to infect the financial sector sooner or laterharryg wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 7:51 amIt's certainly more than possible.Investor87 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:21 am “ Either the masses are being conned into believing a false narrative, or the data processors are being overly accommodative in what they classify as bullish, bearish or neutral readings”
It seems to me it wouldn’t be too hard for the top shadow players to hire a couple hundred hackers to fill out 50 weekly surveys each under unique accounts. They could get sentiment readings to go any direction they want. They probably pay them pretty well. lol
Saw a French TV documentary exposing huge teams of people being employed in warehouses in Madagascar to write false reviews for TripAdvisor. Well, not 'for' TripAdvisor, but for hotels and businesses that wanted lots of good ratings on TripAdvisor.
Much the same concept.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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bpcw
- Black Belt
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- Joined: Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:29 pm
Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
He hasn't changed his tune has he!Yodean wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 11:56 pmYeh, when Dent starts getting invited to give interviews like the one below, _usually_ the bottom is near, or past:bpcw wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:27 pm Harry Dent – been bearish on stocks for years, bearish on everything I can see, sees gold going to $700 - $400, is a deflationist.
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/03/11 ... w-by-june/
The person without the Spirit does not accept the things that come from the Spirit of God but considers them foolishness, and cannot understand them because they are discerned only through the Spirit.
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Yodean
- Jeidi
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
As a general rule, I don't usually like to take advice from advisors who wave their arms and hands a lot ...
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.
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bpcw
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Re: Interim Update May 19, 2022
He's been predicting a crash for 30 years he said, I wonder how he'd of faired had he been shorting the market all this time!
The person without the Spirit does not accept the things that come from the Spirit of God but considers them foolishness, and cannot understand them because they are discerned only through the Spirit.