That's what I see. The demand for money is not above the natural rate of interest plus inflation. Stock markets have plenty of upside.
I think the VM (velocity of money) kind of provides something similar. If the VM is heating up it signals real inflationary forces. Right VM is a multi-decade low. So maybe the Feds game is to keep pumping more money but paying the banks right now by artificially raising rates while allowing them to borrow on the cheap so that in the future they keep hoarding cash instead of lending it out. To keep inflation under control (this is a highly malleable term, but under control infers letting prices increases sneak up on consumers as opposed to just slapping massive increases in one shot) VM has to be controlled and the best way to keep it low is to make sure the banks don't lend the money they have to the average joe.
Another data point, a colleague is building a new home in Florida. They signed a contract in October of 2021 and the developer stated in their contract completion not before April of 23! He is elated that the home will now be completed in December of 22. Excess is being removed, but the Fud has no clothes imo.
Lots of companies are cutting back, especially tech-based companies that got carried away because their stock price was high or they assumed that their prototype product would change the world but have yet to make a profit. It is far better to hire 2 top guys for 300K per year than 10 mediocre clowns for 70 to 80K per year or 4 average guys for 125K per year. The 2 top guys will outgun, outproduce and outthink both groups. The focus going forward will be to lean and mean as opposed to dealing with Woke but going broke workers
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply
The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
