We are going to list a few of the many
predictions we have made over the years that have come to pass. Almost
90% of our predictions have come to pass and that is a high mark by any
standard. If you are looking for service that provides you with the
opportunity to position and prepare yourself before in advance of hug
events (these events can be either positive or negative type events)
then you have found the right service.
In 2000,
we stated that the best thing to do was to get into bonds; by the end of
2002 we made over 40% by just sitting in cash and putting this money
into bonds, In the mean time the markets crumbled.
In 2003,
we stated it was time to jump back into equities; shortly after this the
market exploded upwards
From 2002-2003
banged the table and stated the Gold and Silver were screaming buys.
Look at where Gold and Silver are now. We opened positions in the 300
and 4 dollar ranges.
From late 2004 to early 2006 we
stated that the real estate market was ready to crash. Not only did
this sector crash it basically imploded on its self.
From 2005 to almost 2006 we stated
that the best deal in terms real estate market was to become a renter as
it was a renters market; this continued for several years later. We
even stated that the best move would be to sell your real estate and
rent. Those that followed our advice walked away with huge profits as
they sold at the top and were able to rent top properties for next to
nothing.
In the 2004 period when oil was
trading below 40 dollars we stated that it was ready to explode upwards
and would trade at such lofty levels that people would look back and beg
for the days when oil was at 40.
From late 2007 to earl 2008 we
stated that the bond market was reaching dangerous levels; in fact we
stated it was bubble waiting to implode. Bonds experienced their
largest correction in decades and have not been able to test the highs
of 2008 ever since.
In 2008 and 2009 we pounded the
table on Palladium stating that it was being completely ignored. In
fact we even went so far as to call it a screaming buy; the rest is
history Palladium surged almost 400% after that.
Towards the end of Jan 2010 we
advised our subscribers that sugar was going to experience a pretty
strong correction. We suggested that traders could either short the ETF
SGG or short the futures contract. Those that took our advice locked in
rather huge gains especially if they shorted the futures contracts.
Sugar dropped from a high of $30.40 to a low of $13.00 in a matter of
months.
From 2004 we
continually warned our subscribers to live 1-2 standards below their
means and if they were willing to push it a bit more to opt for 3
standards. We suggested that the money saved by doing this should be
deployed into long term quality investments such as precious metals
bullion, precious metals stocks, oil and energy stocks, etc. Those that
followed our advice have locked in and continue to lock in huge amounts
of profits. Furthermore they took money they were spending on needles,
unnecessary things and put it to use in a positive and constructive
manner. In living several standards below their means they were also
ready for the huge destruction of capital in the 2008 financial crisis.
While everyone else was suffering those that took this advice were able
to live normally for they had prepared in advance for this day.
Throughout 2011
we warned our subscribers that the markets
were becoming increasingly dangerous. Volume was declining at a
precipitous rate, the internal structure was breaking down as all 3
moving averages of new highs that we maintain were now 50% below their
2009 peaks, the Baltic dry index was flashing dangerous warning signals,
the Dow Jones utilities were indicating that all was not well, etc, etc.
The month of August indicated just how dangerously thin this market was
spread; from the 21st of July to the 9th of Aug the Dow shed over
2000 points.
When the Swiss franc was trading close to
75 cents to the dollar we stated that a day would come when it would
trade well above the dollar.
We made the same claim on the Canadian
dollar. When we made this claim it took 65 cents to buy the Canadian
dollar. Look how far the dollar has fallen.
Since 2003 we stated that the long term
outlook of the dollar was extremely negative; in fact we produced charts
indicating that the dollar was dead. Look how far the dollar has
fallen.
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Update Subscription
We are in the process of updating our site so all data from 2010 to
the present will be listed shortly
Did you
Panic,
give into
Fear
and
sell
right at the
Bottom
When you should have
been buying. While everyone was panicking, we were busy warning our
subscribers that a trend change was going to occur and that the markets
were getting ready to mount a potentially very strong rally. Posted
below are excerpts from market updates that were sent out during this
turbulent period. Now another trend change is
in the works, will you be ready for it when it
strikes?
We issued the following
targets almost a month before the market
bottomed and then went to suggest the
market could still mount a very strong rally
at a time when most experts were busy predicting the
end of the world.
The
depth of the next correction will be determined by the height of the
current rally. In other words, a stronger rally decreases the likelihood
of the market going on to put in a series of new 52 week lows. Right
now our primary downside target on the Dow is 7200, but if it does not
mount a decent rally, the primary downside target would move to 6500.
The Dow still has time to mount a decent rally; this prolonged sideways
action has bought it some more time. We need to move from the trying to
stabilise phase to the trying to break out phase.
The
trying to stabilise phase deals with the following levels
8300
= to
neutralise the down trend
8650=
A close above this level to turn the trend bullish
9090-9200=
Needs to trade above these ranges for 7 days in a row; this would should
then lead to a test of the 9600 ranges.
The
breaking out phase deals with the following levels
In this phase, it
should not trade below
9000 for more than 6 days
and the
battle should now be to break past the 9600 price point level. Thus the
new zone of congestion should be restricted to the
9000-9600
ranges
(ideally 9200-9600 ranges). The final part of the break out phase would
be for the Dow to trade past
9600 for 9 days in a row
and
thus set up a pattern that should drive
the Dow to 10500-10600 ranges.
If the pattern remains strong after the Dow rallies to 10500, it could
potentially rally much higher, but getting to 10,500 could go a long way
in reducing the intensity of the next major correction.
Market update Feb 17, 2009
After putting in a series of new
highs, the SD bands are now rapidly contracting and starting to form a
very tight band. Under normal conditions, this type of action usually
suggests that a strong move is in the works. As the markets are now
closer to normal condition than they were 3 months ago, we feel that it
would be fair to state that the SD bands are now predicting that the Dow
is ready to trade significantly higher within the next few weeks. Many
small cap stocks have rallied anywhere from 80-120% from their lows in
just a matter of days (on an intraday basis we experienced such gains in
LMRXF, and UEXCF; PCU is showing gains of almost 90% and DYN is up over
50%); this sort of action typically occurs, when the market is trying to
put in an intermediate bottom Market update Jan 6, 2009
The 3 month chart above very
clearly illustrates the rapid pace at which this index moved in the last
2 months. As the BDI is a leading economic indicator, this move up
suggests that the worst maybe behind us and that demand for raw
materials is slowly starting to rise. In the short term the direction
is being determined by how fast and efficiently the government can come
out with a bail out package that pleases the masses. In the
intermediate time frames, the Baltic Dry index is suggesting that the
economy in general could have bottomed in Dec 2008. Market update
Feb 10, 2009
To turn the trend bullish, it (Dow) will
need to trade above 7800 on a weekly basis or trade above 7500 for 4-6
days in a row.
Irrational behaviour never stands the test of time; it will always end
just as abruptly as it manifested itself. Tuesday’s move could be the
beginning
of
a short squeeze
that
potentially could drag the Dow upwards all the way to the 8600-9000
ranges before it pulls back again and goes on to put in what we believe
will now be a higher low instead of a new 52 week low, sometime in the
summer. In
the last 9 years, the Dow has only traded twice bellows its 99 day EMA
(exponential moving average), and each time it did, it mounted a very
strong rally. It is now trading at the furthest point it has ever
traded from its 99 EMA in the last 9 years; this Monday (9th of March )
it was 3453 points away from its 99 EMA, think of this a rubber band
stretched to the limit.
From Oct 1973 to 0ct
1974, the Dow traded 34% below its 99 EMA and 9 months later it rallied
over 50% from its lows and eventually went to trade well above its 99
EMA.
Is
it just a coincidence that as of the 9th the
Dow is now trading 34.5% below its 99 EMA, will the Dow mount a rally in
the same way it did back in 1974?. After bottoming in Oct 1974, the Dow
traded sideways for awhile and then suddenly exploded upwards.
We would call this a major
psychological development and an indication that the Dow might have put
in an intermediate to long term bottom this Monday.
Market
update March 10, 2009.
From a long term
perspective stocks in the energy sector, palladium sector, certain
stocks in the Silver (CDE, HL) Gold sector, Uranium sector, etc are now
all in the screaming buy ranges. Our slow moving and very accurate smart
money indicator has finally flashed a full fledged buy signal, something
it refused to do for almost 3 years. Market
Update March 17, 2009
Our smart money
indicator has flashed
a full fledged buy signal
for
the first time in almost 3 years; another very powerful development.
According to the pattern generated from the Dow’s 99 day moving
exponential average, the minimum upside target for the Dow is 8200;
usually when an index has initially traded over 34% below this average
as was the case until last week (actual value was 34.5% below its 99 EMA),
the resulting move is much stronger and one can add up to 1000 points to
the minimum upside target; thus based on this projection, the Dow could
trade up to 9200 before mounting a stronger correction.
Market Update March 24, 2009
Additional
Calls from the Market Update Service.
Markets
For a day that produced one of the largest one day
rallies since July of 2002 the moving averages hardly budged but then
again we need to remember these are moving averages and not daily
averages. Over the last few weeks they have been beaten down pretty
heavily so it will take a bit more of upside action to move things into
the positive arena. We feel that the market has put in a bottom or is
now very close to putting in a bottom. The confirmation will come when
we see all 3 moving averages of new highs start to lead the new lows for
several weeks in a row.
Risk
takers can also go long the next time the Dow trades in the 11900-12000
ranges. As stated before we will measure the gains in terms of points
gained from our suggested entry points. However traders can go long via
options on the DOW, QQQQ’s, OEX and futures traders can simply go long
Dow futures contracts. Market update March 11, 2008
The Dow traded as low as 11741 on the 11th and
on the 17th it traded as low as 11756, thus traders had
several opportunities to open up new long positions. One week later the
Dow was trading at 12600 and by May it was trading well past 13,000.
Thus
given the fact that so many individuals are proclaiming a bottom is in
the smart money might purposely push the indices down one more time. If
this happens we would view this as a buying opportunity.
Market Update March 25, 2008
Once
again lady luck smiled on us and our prediction came true within days of
making it. From a high of 12530 last Tuesday, the Dow dropped to a low
of roughly 12180 before mounting one of the largest one day rallies
ever. Last week was a perfect example of mass psychology in action; the
smart money drove the indices lower and the masses panicked and then a
few days later the markets miraculously recovered.
The
fixation on the March lows by so many so called experts including
Russell and Prechter have now turned these potential support zones into
target zones. Mass psychology dictates that if too much attention is
paid to a given event then the outcome that is least desired ends up
becoming reality. Large speculators, some of the largest hedge funds
out there all seemed to have also drawn a line in the sand around the
March lows. As a result of this fixation we feel now that there is a
chance (the key word being chance) that these lows could be taken out
and this is based on two reasons
1)
The over fixation on the importance of the March lows; as
we have already dealt with this above lets move to the 2nd
reason.
2)
The second has to do with the fact that a huge amount of
stop loss orders are sitting at or around these levels and the smart
money always loves to drive the market through zones up or down where a
large number of traders have placed their stops. It’s almost like
printing money for the big guys as when these stops are hit the market
is driven lower and lower as all the stops are triggered and once they
are triggered the smart guys come out and snap as many shares as they
can. They will only drive the market to or below the March lows if the
stops there exceed those placed by the bears in the 13600-13800 ranges
and finally the 14200 ranges.
Market update
May 28, 2008
It
appears that the markets have discounted the worst of the worst news in
the financial sector for they hardly reacted to the bad new from Merrill
lynch. Given that oil prices have pulled back significantly from their
highs and demand continues to drop we feel that there is a good chance
that oil could soon be trading well below 120. Oil below 120 should turn
a lot of neutral investors into bulls and result in some of the
trillions of dollars sitting in money market accounts into being
deployed into the markets. Risk takers can start to nibble at some index
options (6 months or longer) when and if the Dow is able to trade past
11700 for 9 days in a row. Market
update July 29th, 2008.
The
Dow is having an incredibly hard time of trading past 11700; the last
few recent attempts have failed completely and unless it trades past
11700 for at least 12 days in a row it is not going to be in a position
to advance past the 12000 and then the 12350 ranges. The Dow has
already broken past the 11400 mark and to illustrate that the short term
trend is still up it cannot remain below this level for more than 6-9
days in a row. Failure to trade past the 11400 mark in 6-9 days means
that it will most likely at the very least test its lows and possibly go
on to put in a new low. Market update August
19th, 2008.
A possible scenario
is that the Dow starts to rally anywhere from now to the
beginning of October; then during the month of October the volatility
spikes (crazy up and down action), towards the middle to end of October
the markets stabilize and start to rally. This rally could last till
Jan, then the Dow would probably correct and possibly go on to put in
new lows; this would then provide the base for a monster rally of
several thousand points. As more data emerges we will be able to fine
tune this picture. Market update Sept 16,
2008.
The Dow should not trade below 10500 for more than few
days in a row; if it does it could indicate much lower prices.
Market update Sept 23, 2008.
What we do know is that those that yield
to this negative force always regret their decision down the line; it
can take a few days to a few months for this to occur, but it always
occurs and the realisation is terrible, for the individual realises that
they had absolutely no control of their lives or their actions for a
specific period of time. It is one thing to lose money, it is one thing
to feel the pangs of panic and fear in you, but the most vilest and
terrible thing one can do is to allow such a force to dominate ones
entire essence; in other words when it takes over, you are reduced to
the level of an animal and the only thought in your mind is to escape
from a disastrous situation. VIP Update Oct 11, 2008
Risk takers should also be on stand by for a new trade
into Dow options, when and if the Dow tests its October lows. Traders
can purchase the same options they sold off; in other words if you
purchased the Jan 105 DIA call options, then if a trade is triggered
these same options can be purchased once again. An interim update will
be sent out with the necessary instructions.
The lower volume indicates that there is a decent chance
that the Dow could go on to put in a double bottom formation (this would
be very bullish only if the volume continues to come in towards the low
end) that could lead to another 1000 point plus rally the Dow
experienced the last time this zone was tested.
Market update Nov 12, 2008
The Dow came within striking distance of testing its Oct
lows; it traded as low as 7965 only a few points away from the Oct lows
of 7882. From high to low the Dow rallied 914 points in just two days
before it pulled back.
Divide
the money to be deployed into this trade into 3 lots and deploy one lot
now. Go long the Jan 105 or better DIA call options (traders can also
purchase riskier OEX options or options on the QQQQ) only when and if
the Dow tests its October lows (currently at 7882). Ideal entry range
would be in the 7830-7860 ranges; if filled place a stop at 7740.
Market update Nov 18, 2008.
It was
easy to get filled at the suggested entry points as the Dow traded well
below this range. Our instruction to ignore the stop that was triggered
when the Dow closed below 7740 also appears to be paying off. More
money can be deployed into the markets if and when the Dow is able to
trade above certain key price points.
Market
update Nov 25, 2008
From its low of 7449 to its high on Dec 8th
(9026), it rallied almost 1600 points in a matter of days before it
started to pull back. Thus traders who took part in the option plays
recommended in the Nov 18 and Nov 25 market update were able to bank
handsome profits in just a few short days.
As long as the Dow does not trade below its Nov lows, the
pattern indicates that it should at the very least mount another 2 week
rally. A break below its November lows will almost guarantee a test of
7200. Interim update sent out via email on
December 3, 2008
From its low of 8234 (3rd of December) to its
high of 9026 on the 8th of December the Dow rallied almost
800 points.
Currencies
In the April 8th, 2008 issue of the market update we closed
our long positions in the Yen and Swiss Franc as we felt that the time
to open up new positions in the dollar was close; both positions were
closed out with a profit. Our exact instructions were
Put in
orders to sell the Japanese Yen in the 100.50 to 101 ranges and place a
profit stop at 96.00. Our entry point here was 83.10. Sell FXY in the
101 to 102 ranges and also place a profit stop at 96.00. Our entry point
here was 84.00
Place
an order to close this position in the 101.18 to 101.40 ranges. Place a
profit stop at 96. We got in at 76.80. Sell FXF in the 100.40-102
ranges. Place a profit stop at 96. We opened positions at 81.20
Dollar
We have to however state that the dollars ability to break past 74.40
and its main down trend line with such ease is an extremely bullish
development. If one combines this with the fact that the Euro zone is
going through a period of anemic growth and that weak economic
conditions there are going to prevent the ECB from raising rates for
quite sometime; the dollar then suddenly becomes very attractive. The
logic is simple the dollar was hit simply too hard and fell way too much
while the Euros ride up was simply too euphoric and hence it stands that
from a simple risk to reward ratio it makes more sense to jump into the
dollar than the Euro. Market update August 12,
2008
Dollar
needs to trade above the 78.00-78.60 ranges for 12 days in a row and
then past the next zone of resistance at 78.90 for 9 day in a row to
trade to the 81 mark.
Market Update August
26, 2008
We had
stated in several past updates that the dollar needed to trade past
74.40 for 18-21 days in a row; it achieved this and as envisioned went
on to put in a series of new 52 week highs.
Once
potential resistance points are taken out they reverse and then become
support points; the stronger the former resistance the stronger the
support is once these points are taken out and vice versa. We have two
scenarios now; either the dollar breaks past 81 for 18 days in a row or
it pull back to the closest support point, which now falls in the
76.50-77.10 ranges. If it pulls back, it will provide traders who did
not open up long positions in the dollar with a second chance to do so
now. On the other hand if it trades past 81 for 18 days in a row, it
will then be in position to test the 96-99 ranges before mounting
another strong correction. Market Update Sept
16, 2008
It
looks like the 81 price point level was simply too strong for the dollar
to overcome on its first attempt. It traded as low as 76.00 before
moving higher. It has pulled back to the stated zones but there is a
chance that it could briefly spike down to 74.70 before moving higher.
Those that have no long positions in the dollar should not hold out only
for this point; spread your money and take several small bites instead
of one huge bite. The current consolidation could last between 9-15
days, after which the dollar should start to trend higher. 81 is the
price point level that provides what we call the mother load of
resistance; if it can trade above this zone for 18-21 days in a row, the
dollar should be able to trade as high as 99 (96-99 ranges) before
embarking on a new correction. This could result in the Euro trading as
low as 1.20. Market update Sept 23, 2008
During
this corrective phase the Dollar should not trade below the 83.70-84.00
ranges for more than 6 days, for if it does it the next target will be
81. After hitting 81, it should rally and at least test the 83.00
ranges before pulling back; if it is unable to do this then the next
target becomes 78. The dollar could potentially trade all the way down
to 75 and there would still be a chance for it put in a new high. If
however it trades below 75 for 3 days in row, then one has to seriously
start considering the possibility that the dollar might have topped and
is now about to resume its downward journey. Market
update, Nov 25, 2008
The
Dollar has mounted a devastating correction in a rather short period of
time and it has now traded below the 84.00 price point level for
approximately 3 days, if it does this for another 3 days, it will
virtually guarantee a test of 81.
Market
update Dec 16, 2008.
The dollar mounted a very hard correction that started
towards the end of Nov and lasted till the Middle of December. It
traded below key support points and as envisioned traded down to the
high 78 ranges before moving up.
Gold
This ratio is very close to testing its 3 year low and normally every
time ratio has traded below 7 gold has mounted a strong rally but silver
has mounted an even stronger rally. For it to hit its 3 year low it
would have to trade in the 6.00-6.30 ranges.
Market update August 19, 2008
Every
time Gold bullion has traded close to its 81 day moving average it
proved to be good buying opportunity in the last 6 years. If this
pattern holds true and if gold were to pull back to the 740 ranges it
would make for a splendid buying opportunity.
Market update April 8, 2008.
All the precious metals pulled back rather rapidly in a
short period of time. If one takes a close look at this pull back it
does not even come close to being called a correction; for gold to enter
into a corrective phase it will need to trade below 870 for 15 days in a
row. As the demand for gold is still strong and supplies are not really
increasing there is a good chance that Gold might not correct as hard as
it should. On the other hand if it trades below 870 for 15 days in a
row there is a decent chance it could trade in the 740-780 ranges before
stabilising. If it trades in these ranges it would provide long term
investors with a wonderful entry point to open up new longs. April
8th, 2008
Gold dipped below 870 for a few days and traded as low as
840 but did not stay below the 870 mark for 15 days in a row. It is
attempting to put in a channel formation right now, the bottom of which
is represented by the 840 price point level. It has been trading
sideways roughly for the last month while all the technical indicators
have been moving into the oversold ranges; if it continues this pattern
without breaking below 840 it could very suddenly explode towards the
999-1020 mark before pulling back. Consequently to indicate further
weakness it would now need to break below 840 for 12 days in a row. If
this were to occur especially on strong volume then gold could trade as
low as 740 before stabilising. At 740 it would make for a great buy but
as we have continued to state in the past Silver would make for an even
greater buy. June 3rd, 2008
HUI Index to Gold Ratio
Towards the end of 2002, the ratio dropped to roughly .34 and this
triggered of a short rapid rally, then around April of 03 the ratio
dropped even lower to 0.33 and this triggered a massive rally that
lasted till 2004, at which time the ratio had moved up all the way to
0.625. Right now the ratio is even lower then it was in 2002 and 2003;
we are just a drop away from hitting 0.325. Thus at this point one of
two things can happen; Gold bullion has to correct by a huge margin
while Gold stocks essentially do nothing (highly unlikely) or gold
stocks have to mount a huge rally and play catch up to bullions prices.
Nobody
can identify the exact time this will occur but historically gold stocks
have always mounted some sort of rally when the ratio has dropped to
such drastic levels. Market Update Sept 16,
2008.
OIL
Oil did not pull back to the 93-96 ranges however after
pulling back to the 99 ranges it tested the 108 price point before
pulling back. Oil appears to be putting in a topping formation though
this topping action could go on for quite sometime and the ensuing
correction might not be as steep as it should be simply because the
possible drop in demand for oil in the US is being made up for by new
demand from Asia. Either oil needs to trade above 111 for 12 days in a
row to be in a position to put in a new series of highs or it needs to
break below 92 for 12 days in a row to indicate that its going to enter
into a corrective phase. April 8th,
2008
Oil traded past 111 for 12 days in a row and in doing so
went on to put in yet another new series of highs. However we think the
last spurt up was almost a sure sign that a top is near at hand for
while oil surged to new highs so did the Dow transports. Normally the
transports would never do this; so one of these markets has to be either
lying or the transports are predicting that oil could possibly be in for
a rather strong correction. Note to that many of the air line stocks
are flashings positive divergence signals whilst they are putting in
double bottom formations. We suspect that the oil market will take a
bit of time to correct and the correction when it begins will probably
begin very suddenly. No market can trade upwards forever. If oil
cracks below the 114 level for more than 12 days in a row there is a
very good chance it could end up testing the 96-99 rangers before
bouncing higher. June 3rd, 2008
However in the intermediate time frame oil needed to correct and correct
it has. The 120 price point level should have offered some resistance
but it was taken out with ease and now the next target appears to be the
102-105 ranges; if an oil trade below these levels for 12-15 days in a
row then the next target is 90 dollars. Given the fact that markets
tend to overshoot there is a decent chance that oil could pull back all
the way down to its 6 year main up trend line which now falls roughly in
the 75-78 ranges. Market update August 12,
2008.
Oil has
now pulled to within the ranges of our initial targets and if oil now
trades below (102-105) these ranges for the stated 12-15 days, then
there is a really good chance of oil trading to 90 dollars or lower.
Oil could go on to trade all the way down to its main 6 year up trend
line which currently comes in the 63-70 ranges.
Market update Sept 9, 2008
Natural
gas
Natural
gas pulled all the way back to the 8.80 ranges before trading as high as
10.20. Traders who went long as per our suggestions locked in profits of
6000 to 9000 dollars per contract. There is a decent chance that
Natural gas if it fails to trade past 10.20 for 15 days in a row could
test the 7.50 to 7.75 ranges; if this transpires risk takers should look
into opening up new long positions.
April 8th,
2008
Well
natural gas went on to trade past 10.20 for 15 days in a row and in
doing so has put in a series of new 52 week highs. It has two choices
now; a break below 10.20 for more than 12 days could take it down to the
8.70-9.00 ranges or it needs to trade above 12 dollars for 12 days in a
row. If it can do this it will have a very good chance of trading all
the way up to 13.70-14.50 ranges before pulling back.
June 3rd, 2008
Copper
Copper appears to be putting in a topping formation; to
invalidate this formation it would need to trade above 393 for 15 days
in a row; if it does this it will indicate that copper is going to put
in another series of new highs and the correction will be put for
another day. April 8th, 2008
Though
copper traded several times past the 393 mark it was never able to do so
for 15 days in a row and after briefly spiking to the 420 ranges it
started to correct. A break below 345 for more than 12 days in a row
could drag copper all the way down to the 300 ranges.
June 3rd, 2008
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