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Oct, 2003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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Take a look at
this chart carefully, if you look at it nothing much
happened in the price of this stock from
95-96, then you had a
approximately 500 % rise which is hard to see but if you
look closely you will notice it from 50 cents to a high of
about 2.50 in early1996, by August 1996 it had given up a huge portion of these
gains, it was now about 96 cents, by December of 1996 it had
virtually given up all the gains it was now at 64 cents. And then till
about the end of 1997 it traded in this range to a high of
1.80, it never got back to the high it set in 1996 ( most TA specialists would
have said this failure to take out the high was bad news and
told you to
dump this stock), you can bet most people bailed out and
said this stock was dead, it had made lower highs and it was
going to hell.
The choice is very clear, a few
subscribers have left and I expected that because many
people look for fast and
quick gains not realizing that anything that comes fast is
not a really a big gain but a small gain when one looks at
the big picture,
you could have made 500% and bailed out in this stock
on its first run up and you would have at that moment
been very happy had
you done it yourself or some advisor had helped you, and you
would have been mad or even thought about canceling your
subscription
or firing your advisor that told you to hold longer, but
when you sat back and looked at what you lost, you must have
cried silently to
the wee hours of the morning because you just gave up over
101,212% of gains its a low of about 16 cents to its
high of 162
Only two kinds of individuals made it in this market
The ones that bought and held to the very end and also remember very important sold at the right time ( total percentage of this individuals range from 2-5%, closer to 2%%)
And the market timers who timed the ups and downs of the markets (total percentage here is in the 0.5-2% range, I would suspect 1% would be more accurate of those that timed it well)
Now lets look at where at the second stock
Ladies and Gentlemen: we are just in the channel formation stage, if you bail out now you will cry for a very long time and bitterly a few years down the line, when these prices are never seen, remember many gold stocks went up over 500% from their lows and many of them have given a huge percentage of those gains back, just as the previous stock did when it first broke out and then again and again, but the main thing was that the main trend was still up as is the case with gold, the Main trend line is still up. On the second stock we are just at the beginning of the huge channel formation stage, we have not even begun the major bull market move, then we have the hyper bull and then the frenzied stage.
For your records the first stock was CMGI and the second stock in GSS ( a gold stock)
The only problem with the
Gold market is that its 100 times if not more manipulated
then the internet market ever was. So it needs a bit more
scrutiny and analysis than the dot com era ever required. In
addition the GOLD
market will have one more stage
The choice is simple, listen to the penguins who are telling you to bail out now and buy everything else or turn a deaf year to them and for once take a risk on your own look the charts they don�t lie( long term charts) the trend will always be your friend, don't forget that.
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