Longest Bull Market Destined To Trend Higher
The markets are not free; corrections end at arbitrary points. In other words, the top players decide when the markets will correct and how far they will drop and or rise. This is why we focus on the trend and not absolute price targets as almost all free-market forces have been removed. It took us an inordinate amount of time and money to come out with the trend indicator. Imagine how much easier it is to trade if you know the trend if you know that a pullback is a buying opportunity in advance of the fact.
However, some individuals are still fixated to the idea of exact points, as opposed to the idea of viewing strong pullbacks as buying opportunities. This kind of mentality is what led these individuals to miss out on this 7-year bull market, and they look back sorrowfully wishing they had jumped in. What they forget is that they were doing the same thing today as they were doing yesterday; this is the reason this market is going to soar far higher than anyone expects.
There are many investors out there that fall into this category, and the sad part is that they do not even realize by adopting this mindset that they will end up buying right at the top out of pure frustration at having missed the entire ride up by waiting for that so-called perfect entry point.
Must read: Americans favour coffee over Investing.
Volatility is Rising
Volatility continues to Surge as indicated by the above readings, but this is not going to derail the longest bull market in history. If reason governed markets, then all those with PhD’s and higher education would be the ones raking in the highest gains; instead, these chaps are the ones that consistently lose. You need to change your mindset now and throw this fear out of the window. Stop waiting for others to give you the push you need to give yourself. You cannot expect someone to dig you out of the hole you dug yourself into. Your biggest problem is fear; the second one is that you are angry and upset that you missed the ride up so far. The longer you hold onto the old mindset, the more you will lose.
Investors Have Two Options
Change today or risk losing even more in gains. There is no such thing as a perfect entry point. While we do issue targets, we understand that especially when it comes to major indices such as the Dow and SPX, that target might or might not be hit. As we have stated for the umpteenth time, there are almost no free market forces at play now; the top players decide at what arbitrary levels the correction ends.
This is another reason the markets are experiencing such extreme moves as predicted in advance by our V-indicator. So the solution is simple. Make up a list of stocks, ETF’s, I-shares, etc. that you wanted to buy and wait for pullbacks to jump in. If you do not want to do any work, then you can open positions in the stocks plays we issue. Remember there is no such thing as a perfect entry point. If that ever comes to pass, it should be assigned to pure luck, but if you wait for only for that moment, you will miss the whole ride up.
The second option is to continue to do what you are doing now and hope that the outcome changes with the time. However, remember that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and hoping for a new outcome.
The Trend is Still Strong
And It has not turned negative on any of the indices though it has turned neutral on one of them. Neutral is not something we are going to worry about. Our V- indicator has surged to yet another high, so extreme volatility is here to stay. In fact, 2016 will probably be remembered as the most volatile year on record.
Should you panic and join the masses? That choice is up to you. History indicates that the masses always panic and the wrong moment. Clearly, the sentiment was far from euphoric; thus, the current market action looks more like a correction than a crash. This article clearly summarizes what all the naysayers
Today was the first trading day six days after terrorist attacks left Wall Street and the nation badly shaken. The resulting closure was the longest on the New York Stock Exchange since the 1930s. The biggest losers on the day: airlines, major insurers face tens of billions of dollars in claims after last week’s attacks, as well as financial services, travel and hotels, and retail stocks. The biggest winners: defence and security stocks.
Midway through the day, as the market tumbled, President Bush publicly expressed his “great faith” in the U.S. economy, which he said is still poised for growth despite last week’s attacks. “I understand it’s tough right now. Transportation, business is hurting, obviously, the market was correcting prior to this crisis. But the underpinnings for economic growth are there,” Bush told reporters at the Pentagon.
Shaky Start Expected
Trading was hardly expected to be business as usual. Many experts were predicting that already shaky financial markets would lose further ground as the damage inflicted on the psyche of the American people filters its way into the economy and the stock market, further undermining the confidence of consumers and investors. Full Story
Oh just in case you did not figure out, the above excerpt is not from last week’s action, though it sounds dangerously similar. The above comments were made years ago when the Dow was trading in the 8900 ranges.
What separates today from yesterday? Nothing today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday and that is how it will remain for most investors. They worry about this and worry about that, and while they are worrying the markets are trending higher. When they finally stop worrying and jump in, it’s usually too late.
Why Do Investors Always Buy At The Top?
They are held back by fear and then suddenly try to do something because they are angry that they missed this ride. Mark our words, these individuals will jump into the markets almost at or close to the top; at that point, Euphoria will be setting in, and it will be time for us to leave. What we find strange and amusing is how they will persuade themselves to jump into the market one day in the future when it is extremely overvalued, and how they hesitate to do anything when it is not.
Do not join this crew, for even though they claim to want change, they do the same thing over and over again. If they would simply sit down and look at what drove them before, they will see that the same set of silly emotions is driving them today. Hence, they are destined to lose. You cannot win using a methodology that failed before. There is a name for this; it’s called insanity.
If you are part of this group and want to break free, then force yourself to go against your emotions. Do the opposite of what you think you should, especially if it has failed to produce any results in the past. Going forward investors should view every strong pullback as a buying opportunity; change will not come from standing still. This outlook will prevail until the trend turns negative. This is the best way to play one of the longest bull markets in history.
Longest Bull Market In History Update April 2019
This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one. Market Update Feb 28, 2019
No bull market has ever ended on a note of fear or anxiety. Despite the media trying to create a new narrative to prove otherwise for the past several years; they have failed miserably. And this illustrates that news, in general, should either be treated as rubbish or viewed through a humorous lens.
In terms of the stock market, until the Fed changes its mind, all sharp corrections have to be viewed as buying opportunities, and backbreaking corrections have to be placed in the category of “once in a lifetime events”, provided of course the trend is positive. That is what we are here for; to inform you if the trend is positive (Up) or negative (down).
While logic dictates this bull should crash and burn; the forces that are driving this market do not operate on those realms. Investing For Dummies: Forever QE & Stock Market Bull 2019
Every wall is a door.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
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Stock Market Bull 2019 & Forever QE (June 13)