Is The Bull Market Over?
This Bull is far from over, in fact, by some measures it still has a long way to go before it collapses from exhaustion.
The Fed is being overly accommodative; the last rate cut was not necessary, especially with unemployment at historic lows. However, this action has nothing to do with interest rates at all; the world is in the midst of a currency war, and the idea is to devalue or die.
One cannot fight the Fed hence the saying “don’t fight the Fed or you will wind up dead” as in dead broke. Hot money fuels bubbles and this market is far from the bubble stage, so potentially the Fed could help drive this market significantly higher.
Mergers and Stock buybacks
The number of mergers is increasing, and this is always good news for the market. But the bigger story is stock buybacks. With so much cheap money around, the corporate world is going to go nuts and buy back massive amounts of stocks to manipulate earnings as corporate officers get paid for performance, regardless of whether it’s real or illusory. These massive buybacks will reduce the total number of shares in the market, and these buybacks will also provide a zone of hidden support for the markets.
The masses are no longer as worried about a recession
Fears of a recession are fading quite fast. Long term rates are rising because of the Feds action, and the Yield curve is no longer inverted. Even though in our opinion (and we stated this before); too much noise was being made about the inverted yield curve.
This video provides insights into why worrying does not pay; one should instead use the energy to seek new options and find solutions to the problem at hand.
Tactical investor Factors to consider
The Crowd on a Global basis is still nervous
Nervous at least when it comes to opening long term positions in the markets, and this is always music to our years
The Markets are trading in the extremely oversold ranges (monthly Charts)
Every major index is trading in the extremely oversold ranges on the monthly charts
Lastly, the trend is up
The trend has shown no signs of weakening as of yet, and until it does we see no reason to panic
Random Quotes from The Market Update Our premium service
We would be very happy if the Dow suddenly reversed course and dropped below 25,000; this would knock the living daylights out of the masses and give false hope to the bears, indirectly creating a mouth-watering opportunity for the Tactical Investor. When the trend is positive (UP) train yourself to view strong pullbacks, corrections and other negative development through a bullish lens. Anyone can panic in the face of trouble, but only the astute individual can stand still and direct their energy to spotting opportunities. Don’t do what the masses are trained to do, for, after all these years of panic, they have nothing to show for it.
It is surprising and discerning (almost unbelievable) that investor sentiment is still negative. We have never seen such a development before; this is the longest bull market in history and one of the most insane, but yet the masses refuse to embrace it. Therefore no matter how much logic states that a top should be at hand, what might be taking place is that a base is being built for the next explosive upward move. Market Update Aug 31, 2019
Mass Sentiment is far from Negative
68% of investors are either clueless (bears and neutrals) or in a state of panic and that bodes well for this long term bull market. This bull market is probably going to set records for years to come. In some aspects, one could argue that this bull market is in its infancy as the masses have ignored it from its onset.
It is possible that this bull could last another 6-9 years, but don’t fixate on these numbers. We were one of the first to state that the Dow could trade to 30K and that was when the Dow was trading well below 20K. When Dow 30K is taken out, we will re-evaluate the situation. If this bull lasts another six years, then the Dow could trade sig However, let’s focus on the now, for the past is gone, and the future is yet to come. But by focussing on the present you have the chance to shape both the past and the future.
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