History is clear on this topic; the masses never learn. From the Tulip mania to the Coronavirus Pandemic crash, nothing has changed. The masses panic when they should be bullish and turn bullish when caution is warranted. If you walk away with only one thing from today’s update, walk away with this piece of data; when your body and soul tell you it’s time to buy, it’s usually time to sell and vice versa. Until one has mastered the basic principles of mass psychology, one’s instinct is on par with foul trash when it comes to the markets. This market could run higher, but chasing stocks at this point is like getting in towards the tail end of the move. Ask yourself why you hesitate when stocks are on sale, and why you jump in when the market is roaring? If you answer that question honestly, you will see something that the masses refuse to see; most individuals have a secret desire to lose. Look at their behaviour and how could you arrive at any other conclusion. Logically speaking based on historical trends, one would buy when everyone is selling. Yet, the masses sell even more when the selling starts, and they go on a buying spree when the market/specific sector is going to top out.
The above chart above proves that the average Joe has a secret desire to lose when it comes to the markets. In every instance the Dow experienced a “crash-like move”, the masses panicked; there is no exception in history. And they always bought at or close to the top. However, what one notices is that despite all the BS, the experts claimed at the time, the financial markets never collapsed; they always recouped and then went on to soar to new heights. Now with tools like the Trend indicator and Mass psychology, we can limit the downside damage and fine-tune our entry points, but the main thing to understand is that the masses are always on the wrong side of the equation when examined from a long-term perspective. The red arrow indicates the start of the Fed’s new program. Pump money into the markets to stabilise them, and with the passage of each day, the mantra gathers momentum. Right now, the Fed has one mission, stabilise the markets at any cost. That means they will destroy anything or anyone that stands in their way. If you understand the masses stance and the Fed’s mission, you also understand that there will be a plethora of opportunities before this market hits a brick wall. Patience pays well, and impatience kills.
This is why unlike the masses and the experts; we don’t obsess about stock market corrections. For if the trend is positive, there is only one course of action. Embrace all pullbacks regardless of whether they are mild or wild. The greater the deviation from the norm, the better the buying opportunity.
The weekly charts are exerting more pressure for now on the indices. While the experts will view this as a negative development, it is a positive development. Nothing moves up in a straight line. It is healthy for a market to let out some steam when the primary trend is positive. The weak hands are flushed, and the smart money has the chance to scoop quality shares on the cheap.
This correction is occurring when bullish sentiment is already trading below its historical average. Every bull market has ended on a note of extreme euphoria. The current trend is so strong that even if the Dow were to drop all the way to 27K, which would look terrible on the charts, it would have no effect on the trend. Are we stating that the Dow is going to drop to 27k? We are not. We are saying that it makes no sense to focus on the correction because many sharp pullbacks will be mistaken for the end of this bull market. The higher the market’s trend, the higher the volatility. In other words, firm corrections are to be expected and should be viewed as buying points unless the primary trend turns negative. Market Update July 19, 2021
Nothing, and we mean absolutely nothing, can trend upwards in a straight line forever. It is very healthy for a bull market to let out a dose of steam, especially this one, as it has been on a tear for a while.
Instead of writing pages, we will repeat what we have repeated before. Unless the trend turns negative or bullish sentiment is trading north of 50% for weeks on end, every correction ranging from mild to wild should be embraced. This correction will probably end faster than it began, which means the bulk of individuals who jumped out will fail to get back into this market on time.
Other Articles of Interest